Hurricane Florence - Cat. 1

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Hurricane Florence - Cat. 1

#1 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Sep 03, 2006 2:03 pm

This is for Advisories if the NHC upgrades @ 5:00 PM. I will revise the title once we know if there is advisories.
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#2 Postby JonathanBelles » Sun Sep 03, 2006 3:30 pm

what happened to the TCFA?
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 03, 2006 3:31 pm

The thread is now open for the 5 PM advisory to be posted.
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#4 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Sep 03, 2006 3:33 pm

377
WTNT31 KNHC 032030
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 03 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1525
MILES...2455 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON
MONDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...14.6 N...40.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#5 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Sep 03, 2006 3:33 pm

231
WTNT41 KNHC 032030
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 03 2006

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES HAS A BROAD CLOSED CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION TO GARNER DVORAK CLASSIFICATION OF T2.0 FROM TAFB AND
SAB. CONSEQUENTLY...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. BUOY 41026 REPORTED 32 KT WINDS LATE THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE SINCE DECREASED...AND THIS IS THE
BASIS FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 30 KT.

THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS DIFFICULT TO SEE...AND THERE MAY BE
MULTIPLE SWIRLS ROTATING AROUND A COMMON CENTER. THE INITIAL
MOTION IS THEREFORE UNCERTAIN BUT ESTIMATED TO BE 305/12. A STRONG
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION...AND THIS
WEAKNESS SHOULD ALLOW THE PRESENT MOTION TO CONTINUE...WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER
THAT...GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THAT THE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEND THE TRACK BACK TO THE LEFT TOWARDS THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH WITH GREAT DIFFERENCES IN
FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE FASTER
MOTION OF THE GFDL AND BAM MODELS...WITH THE UKMET AND ECMWF BEING
CONSIDERABLY SLOWER. WITH CONVECTION OVER A BROAD AREA AND THE
PRESENCE OF MULTIPLE SWIRLS...IT IS NOT CLEAR EXACTLY WHERE THE
CENTER WILL CONSOLIDATE. THERE IS SOME CHANCE THE CENTER COULD
CONSOLIDATE TO THE NORTH OF THE CURRENT TRACK AND BE MORE
INFLUENCED BY THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH.

THERE IS SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CYCLONE...AND THIS COULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. AFTER THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE
BRING THE DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS A BLEND OF THE NUMBERS FROM THESE TWO MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 14.6N 40.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 15.6N 41.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 16.8N 43.6W 40 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 17.7N 45.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 05/1800Z 18.5N 46.7W 50 KT
72HR VT 06/1800Z 20.0N 50.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 07/1800Z 21.5N 54.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 08/1800Z 23.0N 59.0W 75 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#6 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Sep 03, 2006 3:34 pm

748
WTNT21 KNHC 032031
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
2100 UTC SUN SEP 03 2006

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 40.4W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 40.4W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 39.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.6N 41.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.8N 43.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.7N 45.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.5N 46.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 20.0N 50.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 21.5N 54.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 23.0N 59.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 40.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Last edited by SouthFloridawx on Sun Sep 03, 2006 3:47 pm, edited 5 times in total.
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#7 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sun Sep 03, 2006 3:39 pm

ALREADY FORECASTED TO BE A HURRICANE!
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#8 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 03, 2006 3:39 pm

Image
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#9 Postby jaxfladude » Sun Sep 03, 2006 3:50 pm

Fish :D or a system to watch :eek: ???
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#10 Postby Grease Monkey » Sun Sep 03, 2006 3:58 pm

Wow if that is franklins forecast. Just imagine what Stewart says about it. :lol:
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#11 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 03, 2006 4:00 pm

jaxfladude wrote:Fish :D or a system to watch :eek: ???


Definitely a system to watch. Unlike Debby, who had :fishing: written all over it, this one is likely going to keep pointing towards land. There are some escape routes available for TD6/Florence, but there are also landfall paths open.
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#12 Postby StormScanWx » Sun Sep 03, 2006 9:14 pm

The next advisory comes in less than 50 minutes.

I thought this system was in the Atlantic timezone, so why are they using EDT?
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#13 Postby Brent » Sun Sep 03, 2006 9:16 pm

StormScanWx wrote:The next advisory comes in less than 50 minutes.

I thought this system was in the Atlantic timezone, so why are they using EDT?


AST is the same as EDT.
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Josephine96

#14 Postby Josephine96 » Sun Sep 03, 2006 9:28 pm

Florence tomorrow...?
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#15 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Sep 03, 2006 9:29 pm

854
WTNT21 KNHC 040228
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
0300 UTC MON SEP 04 2006

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 40.4W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 40.4W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 39.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.9N 42.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.0N 43.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.0N 45.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.9N 47.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 20.5N 51.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 21.5N 56.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 22.5N 61.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 40.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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#16 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Sep 03, 2006 9:30 pm

702
WTNT41 KNHC 040229
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 03 2006

THERE HAS BEEN ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE APPARENT ORGANIZATION
OF THE SYSTEM. BANDING FEATURES NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER ARE A
LITTLE BETTER DEFINED...HOWEVER THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE BECOMING A
LITTLE MORE ELONGATED TO THE NORTH AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOT
WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CYCLONE. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT...30 KT...AND 35 KT FROM
TAFB...AFWA...AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. BECAUSE THE UNCERTAINTY IN
CENTER LOCATION LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY IN SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY
ESTIMATION...THE WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION...COULD INHIBIT
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER THIS SHEAR
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME PROHIBITIVELY STRONG SO A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST. LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS PREDICTED TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
PERIOD...BUT BELOW THE 1800 UTC GFDL GUIDANCE IN 4-5 DAYS. WE
BELIEVE THAT THIS PARTICULAR RUN OF THE GFDL MODEL HAD A HIGH
INTENSITY BIAS DUE TO PROBLEMS WITH THE OCEAN COUPLING.

IT IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AT THIS TIME
BUT THE LATEST FIXES ARE ALL TO THE EAST OF PREVIOUS POSITION
ESTIMATES. THEREFORE THE BEST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO
THE RIGHT AND WITH A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. MY INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/10. A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
NEAR 50W LONGITUDE SHOULD ALLOW THE CURRENT NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO
MORE OR LESS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN WOULD CAUSE
THE TRACK TO BEND TOWARD THE LEFT IN 3-5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND ONLY
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IT SHOULD
BE RECALLED THAT TRACK FORECAST ERRORS CAN BE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
IN THE 5-DAY TIME FRAME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0300Z 14.8N 40.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 15.9N 42.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 05/0000Z 17.0N 43.8W 40 KT
36HR VT 05/1200Z 18.0N 45.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 06/0000Z 18.9N 47.3W 50 KT
72HR VT 07/0000Z 20.5N 51.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 08/0000Z 21.5N 56.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 09/0000Z 22.5N 61.0W 75 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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#17 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Sep 03, 2006 9:31 pm

338
WTNT31 KNHC 040228
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 03 2006

...DEPRESSION FAR OUT IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1395
MILES...2245 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
MONDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...14.8 N...40.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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#18 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 03, 2006 9:32 pm

Image
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#19 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sun Sep 03, 2006 9:34 pm

11PM EST advisory track...

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#20 Postby sunnyday » Sun Sep 03, 2006 9:45 pm

I smell a fish moving away from S Fla! I PRAY for a fish moving away from S Fla! 8-)
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