Hurricane Florence - Cat. 1

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 PM AST MON SEP 04 2006

....DEPRESSION CLOSE TO BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.8 WEST OR ABOUT 1100
MILES...1775 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
ON TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...17.3 N...44.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Josephine96]

Even though a lot can and probably will change.. thats still an ominous looking track for Florida..

[JTD]

Hmmm....reading that discussion...I smell a fish.

Well I had posted the discussion but someone saw fit to delete it.

[gatorcane]

I smell fish also, 2006 the summer of troughs and ULLs continue....

[cycloneye]

Hmmm....reading that discussion...I smell a fish.

Well I had posted the discussion but someone saw fit to delete it.

Discussion was posted by Brent at page 2.

[JTD]

ah thanks. that makes sense now.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Florence better stay away. The "F" storms have had a reputation for being big. France, Floyd, Fran, Fifi, Fredric, Fabian, Flora.

[HurricaneBill]

Florence better stay away. The "F" storms have had a reputation for being big. Frances, Floyd, Fran, Fifi, Frederic, Fabian, Flora.

Plus, Florence has struck the U.S. twice as a hurricane. 1953 and 1988.

[clfenwi]

WTNT31 KNHC 050827
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 AM AST TUE SEP 05 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.9 WEST OR ABOUT 1030
MILES...1660 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...17.7 N...45.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA

[clfenwi]

WTNT41 KNHC 050827
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 05 2006

WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...THE
OVERALL ORGANIZATION REMAINS POOR. THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A
LARGE CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION PRIMARILY FOCUSED NEAR THE OUTER
PERIPHERY. ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30
KT. THE DEPRESSION IS STILL FIGHTING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UNUSUALLY HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED VERTICAL
SHEAR...WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 2 DAYS. GIVEN THIS AND THE
PRESENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT-TERM. BEYOND 48 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO FRACTURE FORMING AN UPPER
LOW TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN...IF VERIFIED...WOULD
RESULT IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING.
HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION HAS A TOUGH ROAD IN THE INTERIM...AND WILL
NEED TO SURVIVE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO REACH THIS IMPROVED
ENVIRONMENT. THIS COMPLEX EVOLUTION MEANS GREATER THAN USUAL
UNCERTAINTY...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AT THE LOWER END OF THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

LOCATING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS A DIFFICULT TASK. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THERE ARE SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE TRANSIENT
CENTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER CIRCULATION. THE ADVISORY POSITION
IS BASED ON THE MEAN CENTER OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION YIELDING AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 300/11. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO A
WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...A
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN SOME
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AS IT REACHES THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0900Z 17.7N 45.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 18.4N 47.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 06/0600Z 19.2N 49.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 06/1800Z 19.9N 50.9W 40 KT
48HR VT 07/0600Z 20.5N 53.1W 45 KT
72HR VT 08/0600Z 22.0N 58.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 09/0600Z 23.5N 62.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 10/0600Z 25.5N 66.0W 80 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA

[HurricaneHunter914]

Oh, so I guess the increase in convection didn't really mean anything.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Welcome Florence!

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 05 2006

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT TD-6 HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS INTENSIFIED INTO VERY
LARGE TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS
BASED ON WIND DATA FROM 05/0836Z QUIKSCAT AND 05/1002 SSMI
OVERPASSES THAT REVEALED LARGE PATCHES OF 30-35 KT UNCONTAMINATED
WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. IT COULD BE ARGUED THAT STRONGER
WINDS EXIST IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...BUT THAT ASSESSMENT CAN
WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT ADVISORY PACKAGE TO SEE IF CONVECTION PERSISTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/11. THE AFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS AND ALSO ONE AT 04/2130Z NOW CLEARLY INDICATE THAT THE
BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER IS FARTHER SOUTH BY AT LEAST 40 NMI THAN
INDICATED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. THE ADVISORY POSITION IS ROUGHLY
MIDWAY BETWEEN TWO SMALLER CIRCULATIONS -- ONE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT AND ONE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT THAT PASSED BY NOAA
BUOY 41041 EARLIER THIS MORNING. OTHER THAN RELOCATING THE CENTER
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL ADVISORIES. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
...WHICH IS MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL
POSITION. THE LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH THAT WILL BE THE
MAIN STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
FLORENCE MOVING IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. BY DAY 5...ALL
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE RIDGE TO NORTH OF FLORENCE AND ALLOW
THE SYSTEM TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE WEAKNESS. THE
VERDICT IS STILL OUT ON THE SCENARIO GIVEN THE RELATIVE WEAKNESS OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED IN THE MODEL WIND FIELDS.

SINCE FLORENCE HAS A RATHER LARGE WIND FIELD THAT IS AT LEAST 400
NMI IN DIAMETER ALONG WITH A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF 90-100
NMI...ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 48-72
HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE INNER CORE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO
CONTRACT IN THE PRESENCE OF LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND OVER 29C
SSTS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO
OCCUR. THE ONLY REASON THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT CALL
FOR FLORENCE TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY 120 HOURS AS INDICATED
BY THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS IS THE UNCERTAINTY IN
EXACTLY HOW THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL EVOLVE BY THAT TIME.
ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT FLORENCE WILL BE NEAR A NARROW 200
MB ANTICYCLONE...BUT THE EXACT POSITION OF THE CYCLONE RELATIVE TO
THAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING JUST HOW
INTENSE FLORENCE COULD BECOME BY THAT TIME. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAINS CONSERVATIVE AND IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/1500Z 17.3N 47.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 06/0000Z 17.9N 48.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 06/1200Z 18.6N 50.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 07/0000Z 19.3N 53.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 07/1200Z 20.1N 55.3W 55 KT
72HR VT 08/1200Z 21.6N 59.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 09/1200Z 23.3N 63.8W 75 KT
120HR VT 10/1200Z 25.5N 67.5W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Brent]

FLORENCE!!!!

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1500 UTC TUE SEP 05 2006

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 47.3W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..110NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 47.3W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 46.8W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.9N 48.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.6N 50.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.3N 53.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.1N 55.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.6N 59.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 50SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 23.3N 63.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 25.5N 67.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 47.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[CrazyC83]

Surprise surprise!!!

I was expecting that they would hold it at 35mph.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 05 2006

...THE SIXTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.3 WEST OR ABOUT 935
MILES...1510 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...17.3 N...47.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 05 2006

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT TD-6 HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS INTENSIFIED INTO VERY
LARGE TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS
BASED ON WIND DATA FROM 05/0836Z QUIKSCAT AND 05/1002 SSMI
OVERPASSES THAT REVEALED LARGE PATCHES OF 30-35 KT UNCONTAMINATED
WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. IT COULD BE ARGUED THAT STRONGER
WINDS EXIST IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...BUT THAT ASSESSMENT CAN
WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT ADVISORY PACKAGE TO SEE IF CONVECTION PERSISTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/11. THE AFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS AND ALSO ONE AT 04/2130Z NOW CLEARLY INDICATE THAT THE
BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER IS FARTHER SOUTH BY AT LEAST 40 NMI THAN
INDICATED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. THE ADVISORY POSITION IS ROUGHLY
MIDWAY BETWEEN TWO SMALLER CIRCULATIONS -- ONE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT AND ONE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT THAT PASSED BY NOAA
BUOY 41041 EARLIER THIS MORNING. OTHER THAN RELOCATING THE CENTER
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL ADVISORIES. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
...WHICH IS MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL
POSITION. THE LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH THAT WILL BE THE
MAIN STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
FLORENCE MOVING IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. BY DAY 5...ALL
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE RIDGE TO NORTH OF FLORENCE AND ALLOW
THE SYSTEM TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE WEAKNESS. THE
VERDICT IS STILL OUT ON THE SCENARIO GIVEN THE RELATIVE WEAKNESS OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED IN THE MODEL WIND FIELDS.

SINCE FLORENCE HAS A RATHER LARGE WIND FIELD THAT IS AT LEAST 400
NMI IN DIAMETER ALONG WITH A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF 90-100
NMI...ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 48-72
HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE INNER CORE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO
CONTRACT IN THE PRESENCE OF LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND OVER 29C
SSTS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO
OCCUR. THE ONLY REASON THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT CALL
FOR FLORENCE TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY 120 HOURS AS INDICATED
BY THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS IS THE UNCERTAINTY IN
EXACTLY HOW THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL EVOLVE BY THAT TIME.
ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT FLORENCE WILL BE NEAR A NARROW 200
MB ANTICYCLONE...BUT THE EXACT POSITION OF THE CYCLONE RELATIVE TO
THAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING JUST HOW
INTENSE FLORENCE COULD BECOME BY THAT TIME. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAINS CONSERVATIVE AND IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/1500Z 17.3N 47.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 06/0000Z 17.9N 48.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 06/1200Z 18.6N 50.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 07/0000Z 19.3N 53.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 07/1200Z 20.1N 55.3W 55 KT
72HR VT 08/1200Z 21.6N 59.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 09/1200Z 23.3N 63.8W 75 KT
120HR VT 10/1200Z 25.5N 67.5W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[MiamiensisWx]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 051439
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 05 2006

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT TD-6 HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS INTENSIFIED INTO VERY
LARGE TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS
BASED ON WIND DATA FROM 05/0836Z QUIKSCAT AND 05/1002 SSMI
OVERPASSES THAT REVEALED LARGE PATCHES OF 30-35 KT UNCONTAMINATED
WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. IT COULD BE ARGUED THAT STRONGER
WINDS EXIST IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...BUT THAT ASSESSMENT CAN
WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT ADVISORY PACKAGE TO SEE IF CONVECTION PERSISTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/11. THE AFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS AND ALSO ONE AT 04/2130Z NOW CLEARLY INDICATE THAT THE
BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER IS FARTHER SOUTH BY AT LEAST 40 NMI THAN
INDICATED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. THE ADVISORY POSITION IS ROUGHLY
MIDWAY BETWEEN TWO SMALLER CIRCULATIONS -- ONE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT AND ONE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT THAT PASSED BY NOAA
BUOY 41041 EARLIER THIS MORNING. OTHER THAN RELOCATING THE CENTER
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL ADVISORIES. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
...WHICH IS MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL
POSITION. THE LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH THAT WILL BE THE
MAIN STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
FLORENCE MOVING IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. BY DAY 5...ALL
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE RIDGE TO NORTH OF FLORENCE AND ALLOW
THE SYSTEM TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE WEAKNESS. THE
VERDICT IS STILL OUT ON THE SCENARIO GIVEN THE RELATIVE WEAKNESS OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED IN THE MODEL WIND FIELDS.

SINCE FLORENCE HAS A RATHER LARGE WIND FIELD THAT IS AT LEAST 400
NMI IN DIAMETER ALONG WITH A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF 90-100
NMI...ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 48-72
HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE INNER CORE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO
CONTRACT IN THE PRESENCE OF LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND OVER 29C
SSTS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO
OCCUR. THE ONLY REASON THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT CALL
FOR FLORENCE TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY 120 HOURS AS INDICATED
BY THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS IS THE UNCERTAINTY IN
EXACTLY HOW THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL EVOLVE BY THAT TIME.
ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT FLORENCE WILL BE NEAR A NARROW 200
MB ANTICYCLONE...BUT THE EXACT POSITION OF THE CYCLONE RELATIVE TO
THAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING JUST HOW
INTENSE FLORENCE COULD BECOME BY THAT TIME. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAINS CONSERVATIVE AND IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/1500Z 17.3N 47.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 06/0000Z 17.9N 48.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 06/1200Z 18.6N 50.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 07/0000Z 19.3N 53.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 07/1200Z 20.1N 55.3W 55 KT
72HR VT 08/1200Z 21.6N 59.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 09/1200Z 23.3N 63.8W 75 KT
120HR VT 10/1200Z 25.5N 67.5W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[SouthFloridawx]

That's an interesting discussion.

[SouthFloridawx]

I am confused... the advisory says west at 12 but, this graphic shows WNW motion. Perhaps they feel it will move more WNW later today.

[gatorcane]

I am also confused too.....no the advisory say it will move West for the next 24 hours...

something is wrong.

[cycloneye]

206
WTNT21 KNHC 052030
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
2100 UTC TUE SEP 05 2006

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 48.5W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 110NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 48.5W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 48.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.0N 49.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.8N 51.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.7N 54.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.6N 56.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.3N 61.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 24.3N 65.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 27.0N 69.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 48.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART