Hurricane Florence - Cat. 1

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 PM AST TUE SEP 05 2006

...FLORENCE GETTING A LITTLE STRONGER OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.5 WEST OR ABOUT 960
MILES...1550 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...17.4 N...48.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 05 2006

THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE BANDING
FEATURES HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALSO BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN THE INNER CORE
REGION. GIVEN THE OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
OF FLORENCE...PLUS A 05/1641Z UW-CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE OF 1003 MB AND
42 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10. ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND
REGIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION THROUGH 96 HOURS...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST INTO A
DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AFTER THAT. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN VERY PERSISTENT IN DEVELOPING AN EVENTUAL BREAK IN THE
RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN 65W-75W FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. HOWEVER
...EACH RUN HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST.
GIVEN THAT THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND THAT A LARGE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BY DAY
5...THE MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FORECAST TO GENERATE THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND
REMAINS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

ALTHOUGH FLORENCE CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED...IT REMAINS AN
UNUSUALLY LARGE ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM...AND LARGE CYCLONES TEND
TO TAKE LONGER TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY THAN SMALLER ONES DO. AS A
RESULT...ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS OR SO...WITH A FASTER RATE OF STRENGTHENING INDICATED AFTER
THAT AS FLORENCE MOVES OVER 29-29.5C SSTS AND BENEATH DECREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR. IF FLORENCE MOVES UNDERNEATH THE CENTER OF A 200 MB
ANTICYCLONE LIKE THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND ECMWF MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING...THEN STRENGTHENING INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE LIKE THE
GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS ARE FORECASTING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/2100Z 17.4N 48.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 18.0N 49.9W 45 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 18.8N 51.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 07/0600Z 19.7N 54.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 07/1800Z 20.6N 56.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 08/1800Z 22.3N 61.1W 70 KT
96HR VT 09/1800Z 24.3N 65.7W 80 KT
120HR VT 10/1800Z 27.0N 69.0W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 05 2006

...FLORENCE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.5 WEST OR ABOUT 895
MILES...1440 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230
KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...17.7 N...49.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
0300 UTC WED SEP 06 2006

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 49.5W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......125NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 110NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 49.5W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 49.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.3N 51.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.3N 53.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...125NE 90SE 45SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.3N 55.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...125NE 90SE 45SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.3N 57.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 25SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 60SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.5N 62.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 25SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 60SW 125NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 25.5N 66.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 28.5N 69.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 49.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 05 2006

WHILE THE OVERALL CIRCULATION OF FLORENCE IS VERY LARGE...FINDING
THE EXACT CENTER IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT. AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS FROM
THE 2105 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE CENTER REMAINS
BROAD AND ELONGATED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. THE CENTER THAT WE
HAVE BEEN TRACKING APPEARS TO BE LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS VERY
STRONG...THERE ARE NO DISCERNIBLE BANDING FEATURES. DUE TO THE
CENTER LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES...THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 30 KT FROM TAFB...35 KT FROM SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA.
THEREFORE....THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 40 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10. THE TRACK MODELS CONTINUE
TO AGREE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE WHICH EXPANDS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT FLORENCE WILL BE
APPROACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AND BEGIN
TURNING NORTHWESTWARD. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT WAS ADJUSTED A LITTLE
EASTWARD...CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.

FLORENCE HAS BEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO
CUT-OFF AND MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...MUCH LIKE THE EVOLUTION
PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. AS THIS OCCURS...THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO RELAX WITH THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW STRENGTHENING
AND INDICATES THAT FLORENCE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 2
DAYS. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

THE FORECAST TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED
USING GUIDANCE FROM THE GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTIONS...WHICH DEPICT A
RATHER LARGE CIRCULATION. THESE MODELS HAVE SHOWN SOME SKILL IN
FORECASTING THE EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTER WIND FIELDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0300Z 17.7N 49.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z 18.3N 51.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 07/0000Z 19.3N 53.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 07/1200Z 20.3N 55.2W 60 KT
48HR VT 08/0000Z 21.3N 57.6W 65 KT
72HR VT 09/0000Z 23.5N 62.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 10/0000Z 25.5N 66.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 11/0000Z 28.5N 69.0W 95 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

[cycloneye]

[SouthFloridawx]

Advisory Positions thus far.

[pgoss11]

It may be wnw from the first advisory, but it's definitely west of last advisory

[Damar91]

Advisory Positions thus far.

How on earth is that wnw? Somebody has been up too long or something.

[Josephine96]

I think Max needs to go into retirement already he's becoming delirious..

[Extremeweatherguy]

Advisory Positions thus far.

How on earth is that wnw? Somebody has been up too long or something.

I agree. Looks clearly W or WSW to me.

[SouthFloridawx]

I edited the image above to include the forecast points.

[cycloneye]

5 PM is not there.

[SouthFloridawx]

5 PM is not there.

Hold on let me see what I did

[SouthFLTropics]

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 AM EDT WED SEP 06 2006

A SIGNIFICANT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRED NORTHEAST OF THE
ESTIMATED CENTER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...SINCE THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS BOTH ELONGATED AND DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY...THIS FLARE UP DOES NOT
NECESSARILY INDICATE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OR AN INCREASE IN
INTENSITY. INDEED...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
ARE UNCHANGED AT 40 KT AND A RECENT UW-CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY
ESTIMATE WAS 42 KT. BASED ON THIS DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 40 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST OF FLORENCE IS BEGINNING TO FRACTURE CAUSING THE
FORMATION OF AN UPPER LOW. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS UPPER LOW
WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO CAUSING A GRADUAL
REDUCTION IN VERTICAL SHEAR AND A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THIS EXPECTED EVOLUTION IS STRONGLY
DEPENDENT ON THE PHASING OF THE UPPER LOW AND THE CYCLONE. SHOULD
FLORENCE GET TOO CLOSE TO THE UPPER LOW...VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT. ACCORDINGLY...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST REMAINS RATHER TRICKY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
RELAX IN A DAY OR SO ALLOWING GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN LINE WITH
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

GIVEN THE RECENT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION...THE CENTER OF
FLORENCE CONTINUES TO JUMP AROUND A BIT WITH THE CURRENT POSITION
INDICATING SOME RELOCATION TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL MOTION IS
THUS BASED ON A LONGER TERM AVERAGE YIELDING 300/11. THE TRACK
FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED AS GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF A MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF FLORENCE. GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL TURN MORE NORTHWARD IS EXPECTED AS THE
CYCLONE REACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE GLOBALS CONTINUE TO SHOW DISCREPANCIES IN THE
EVOLUTION OF AN UPSTREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MODELS IN THE DEGREE...TIMING...AND LOCATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWARD TURN. THE MOST NOTABLE SHIFT IN GUIDANCE
FOR THIS PACKAGE IS THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS...BOTH OF WHICH
HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO NORTH EARLY IN THE FORECAST AND A LITTLE
EAST LATE. GIVEN THE APPARENT NORTHWARD REFORMATION OF THE CENTER
INITIALLY...THIS SHIFT APPEARS REASONABLE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS SUIT. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS STILL ON THE LEFT SIDE OF
GUIDANCE ENVELOP.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0900Z 18.4N 50.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 19.2N 51.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 07/0600Z 20.3N 53.4W 55 KT
36HR VT 07/1800Z 21.4N 55.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 08/0600Z 22.4N 57.8W 65 KT
72HR VT 09/0600Z 24.4N 62.6W 75 KT
96HR VT 10/0600Z 27.0N 66.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 11/0600Z 29.5N 68.0W 95 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN

NNNN

[SouthFLTropics]

Statement as of 5:00 am AST on September 06, 2006


...Florence remains over the open waters of the central Atlantic...

at 500 am AST...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 18.4 north...longitude 50.2 west or about 845
miles...1360 km...east of the northern Leeward Islands.

Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph...20 km/hr
...And this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 145 miles...230 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb...29.62 inches.

Repeating the 500 am AST position...18.4 N...50.2 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...45
mph. Minimum central pressure...1003 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1100 am AST.

$$
Forecaster Rhome/Beven

[senorpepr]

Advisory Positions thus far.

[img]

How on earth is that wnw? Somebody has been up too long or something.

I agree. Looks clearly W or WSW to me.

Don't get confused on direction being the difference between two advisory positions. Remember, the direction is the relative storm motion--disregarding any reformations. In this case, you have the center repositioning itself westward while the center, as a whole, continues to track WNW.

[SouthFloridawx]

Advisory Positions thus far.

[img]

How on earth is that wnw? Somebody has been up too long or something.

I agree. Looks clearly W or WSW to me.

Don't get confused on direction being the difference between two advisory positions. Remember, the direction is the relative storm motion--disregarding any reformations. In this case, you have the center repositioning itself westward while the center, as a whole, continues to track WNW.

Good call on that one Mike. The center itself seems to be wobbling a bit as it is a large circulation but, the overall motion of the large circulation is WNW.

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1500 UTC WED SEP 06 2006

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 50.9W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......250NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 0SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 50.9W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 50.6W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.3N 52.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...250NE 90SE 45SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.5N 54.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 90SE 45SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 90SE 60SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.0N 59.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 25SW 60NW.
34 KT...175NE 100SE 60SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.0N 64.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 25SW 60NW.
34 KT...175NE 100SE 60SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 28.0N 67.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 31.0N 67.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 50.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 06 2006

VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-CLOUD SWIRL
WITH SOME THIN CONVECTIVE BANDING DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEAST AND
NORTHWEST QUADRANTS. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE
LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SHIP MSJZ8 REPORTED
34 KT WINDS ABOUT 250 MILES FROM THE CENTER...BEYOND THE STRONGEST
BAND OF CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 45 KT FROM
TAFB AND AFWA...AND 35 KT FROM SAB. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT.

THE CIRCULATION NOW APPEARS TO BE MORE CIRCULAR THAN IT WAS LAST
NIGHT...AND I AM PLACING THE OVERALL SYSTEM CENTER ONLY A LITTLE
BIT NORTHWEST OF THE CLOUD SWIRL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10.
THE KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES NORTHWEST OF FLORENCE. THIS COULD IMPART
MORE OF A NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS INDICATED
BY THE GFDL MODEL...BUT THE REMAINING GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
ON A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS
AS FLORENCE MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE MOMENT...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWARD TURN.

THE INTENSIFICATION OF FLORENCE IS VERY DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW IT
INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER-LOW TO ITS NORTHWEST. RIGHT NOW THE LOW
IS RESPONSIBLE FOR SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND BROAD-SCALE DESCENT OVER
THE CENTER...WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE DIFLUENT FLOW LOCATED WELL TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE UPPER-LOW IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE AND WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MORE
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
THIS SCENARIO WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MORE
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT. THE GFDL MODEL IS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND SHOWS FLORENCE AS A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/1500Z 18.3N 50.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 19.3N 52.5W 50 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 20.5N 54.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 22.0N 57.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 08/1200Z 23.0N 59.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 09/1200Z 25.0N 64.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 10/1200Z 28.0N 67.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 11/1200Z 31.0N 67.0W 95 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN