BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 AM AST WED SEP 06 2006
...FLORENCE A LITTLE STRONGER...
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.9 WEST OR ABOUT 800
MILES...1290 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT
1295 MILES...2090 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...18.3 N...50.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Hurricane Florence - Cat. 1
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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cycloneye
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SouthFloridawx
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100
WTNT41 KNHC 061442
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 06 2006
VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-CLOUD SWIRL
WITH SOME THIN CONVECTIVE BANDING DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEAST AND
NORTHWEST QUADRANTS. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE
LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SHIP MSJZ8 REPORTED
34 KT WINDS ABOUT 250 MILES FROM THE CENTER...BEYOND THE STRONGEST
BAND OF CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 45 KT FROM
TAFB AND AFWA...AND 35 KT FROM SAB. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT.
THE CIRCULATION NOW APPEARS TO BE MORE CIRCULAR THAN IT WAS LAST
NIGHT...AND I AM PLACING THE OVERALL SYSTEM CENTER ONLY A LITTLE
BIT NORTHWEST OF THE CLOUD SWIRL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10.
THE KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES NORTHWEST OF FLORENCE. THIS COULD IMPART
MORE OF A NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS INDICATED
BY THE GFDL MODEL...BUT THE REMAINING GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
ON A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS
AS FLORENCE MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE MOMENT...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWARD TURN.
THE INTENSIFICATION OF FLORENCE IS VERY DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW IT
INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER-LOW TO ITS NORTHWEST. RIGHT NOW THE LOW
IS RESPONSIBLE FOR SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND BROAD-SCALE DESCENT OVER
THE CENTER...WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE DIFLUENT FLOW LOCATED WELL TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE UPPER-LOW IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE AND WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MORE
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
THIS SCENARIO WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MORE
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT. THE GFDL MODEL IS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND SHOWS FLORENCE AS A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/1500Z 18.3N 50.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 19.3N 52.5W 50 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 20.5N 54.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 22.0N 57.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 08/1200Z 23.0N 59.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 09/1200Z 25.0N 64.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 10/1200Z 28.0N 67.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 11/1200Z 31.0N 67.0W 95 KT
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
WTNT41 KNHC 061442
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 06 2006
VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-CLOUD SWIRL
WITH SOME THIN CONVECTIVE BANDING DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEAST AND
NORTHWEST QUADRANTS. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE
LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SHIP MSJZ8 REPORTED
34 KT WINDS ABOUT 250 MILES FROM THE CENTER...BEYOND THE STRONGEST
BAND OF CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 45 KT FROM
TAFB AND AFWA...AND 35 KT FROM SAB. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT.
THE CIRCULATION NOW APPEARS TO BE MORE CIRCULAR THAN IT WAS LAST
NIGHT...AND I AM PLACING THE OVERALL SYSTEM CENTER ONLY A LITTLE
BIT NORTHWEST OF THE CLOUD SWIRL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10.
THE KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES NORTHWEST OF FLORENCE. THIS COULD IMPART
MORE OF A NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS INDICATED
BY THE GFDL MODEL...BUT THE REMAINING GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
ON A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS
AS FLORENCE MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE MOMENT...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWARD TURN.
THE INTENSIFICATION OF FLORENCE IS VERY DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW IT
INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER-LOW TO ITS NORTHWEST. RIGHT NOW THE LOW
IS RESPONSIBLE FOR SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND BROAD-SCALE DESCENT OVER
THE CENTER...WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE DIFLUENT FLOW LOCATED WELL TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE UPPER-LOW IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE AND WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MORE
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
THIS SCENARIO WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MORE
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT. THE GFDL MODEL IS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND SHOWS FLORENCE AS A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/1500Z 18.3N 50.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 19.3N 52.5W 50 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 20.5N 54.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 22.0N 57.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 08/1200Z 23.0N 59.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 09/1200Z 25.0N 64.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 10/1200Z 28.0N 67.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 11/1200Z 31.0N 67.0W 95 KT
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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dixiebreeze
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5140
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 5:07 pm
- Location: crystal river, fla.
Florence Recon Reports
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT WED 06 SEP 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z SEP 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-099
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLY BEGIN 12 HOURLY FIXES
NEAR 23.5N 60.5W AT 08/1800Z.
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT WED 06 SEP 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z SEP 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-099
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLY BEGIN 12 HOURLY FIXES
NEAR 23.5N 60.5W AT 08/1800Z.
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The 11 AM did a good job of explaining why the models have been expecting a short term NW move. Unfortunately the ULL that cut off to the west has continued shearing Florence rather than steering her north so far.
Once the models have a well centered storm with a better idea of the relative speed between Florence and the retreating low, things get a little less complex. The low can only go so far west but by then Florence should be a hurricane building high pressure out in front of her. Perhaps the large size of Florence has kept the pressure gradient a little shallow and delayed development.
Once the models have a well centered storm with a better idea of the relative speed between Florence and the retreating low, things get a little less complex. The low can only go so far west but by then Florence should be a hurricane building high pressure out in front of her. Perhaps the large size of Florence has kept the pressure gradient a little shallow and delayed development.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139118
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
200
WTNT31 KNHC 062031
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 PM AST WED SEP 06 2006
...FLORENCE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...SHOULD STRENGTHEN SOON...
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.4 WEST OR ABOUT 770
MILES...1235 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT
1240 MILES...1995 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND FLORENCE COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE ON THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...19.0 N...51.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
WTNT31 KNHC 062031
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 PM AST WED SEP 06 2006
...FLORENCE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...SHOULD STRENGTHEN SOON...
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.4 WEST OR ABOUT 770
MILES...1235 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT
1240 MILES...1995 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND FLORENCE COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE ON THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...19.0 N...51.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139118
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
WTNT21 KNHC 062032
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
2100 UTC WED SEP 06 2006
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 51.4W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......225NE 100SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 90SE 90SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 51.4W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 51.1W
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 20.0N 53.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 100SE 50SW 125NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.5N 55.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 100SE 50SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 22.7N 58.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 100SE 60SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.7N 60.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...175NE 100SE 60SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.0N 65.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...175NE 100SE 60SW 150NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 29.0N 67.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 32.5N 67.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 51.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
2100 UTC WED SEP 06 2006
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 51.4W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......225NE 100SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 90SE 90SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 51.4W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 51.1W
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 20.0N 53.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 100SE 50SW 125NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.5N 55.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 100SE 50SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 22.7N 58.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 100SE 60SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.7N 60.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...175NE 100SE 60SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.0N 65.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...175NE 100SE 60SW 150NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 29.0N 67.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 32.5N 67.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 51.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Brent
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- Contact:
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 PM EDT WED SEP 06 2006
EVEN AS FLORENCE SHOWS SIGNS OF BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...THE
CENTER REMAINS MADDENINGLY DIFFICULT TO TRACK. THE WELL-DEFINED
LOW-CLOUD SWIRL HAS BEEN ROTATING NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AROUND A
PRESUMED BUT INVISIBLE OVERALL SYSTEM CENTER TO ITS WEST. AN 18
HOUR AVERAGE GIVES 295/8 FOR THE ADVISORY MOTION. THERE HAS BEEN NO
CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING...SO I'LL JUST PLAGIARIZE
THIS MORNING'S DISCUSSION. THE KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURE IN THE SHORT
TERM REMAINS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHWEST
OF FLORENCE. THIS COULD IMPART MORE OF A NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...AS INDICATED BY THE GFDL MODEL...BUT THE REMAINING
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS FLORENCE MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF
THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWARD TURN
BY DAY 4. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE WELL-CLUSTERED
PRIMARY DYNAMICAL MODELS.
THE MAJOR CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY IS THAT THE CONVECTION HAS
BEEN GRADUALLY MIGRATING CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS CONVECTION HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASING OVER
THE NOW-OBSCURED CLOUD SWIRL...AND THIS MAY BE THE BEGINNING OF A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL INTENSIFICATION. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
WESTWARD...SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND THE ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE
ON DEVELOPING A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER FLORENCE IN THREE DAYS OR SO
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL
GUIDANCE IN MAKING FLORENCE A MAJOR HURRICANE. TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
FLORENCE...ALREADY A LARGE CYCLONE...WILL GET EVEN LARGER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/2100Z 19.0N 51.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 20.0N 53.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 07/1800Z 21.5N 55.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 08/0600Z 22.7N 58.2W 70 KT
48HR VT 08/1800Z 23.7N 60.7W 80 KT
72HR VT 09/1800Z 26.0N 65.0W 95 KT
96HR VT 10/1800Z 29.0N 67.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 11/1800Z 32.5N 67.0W 95 KT
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 PM EDT WED SEP 06 2006
EVEN AS FLORENCE SHOWS SIGNS OF BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...THE
CENTER REMAINS MADDENINGLY DIFFICULT TO TRACK. THE WELL-DEFINED
LOW-CLOUD SWIRL HAS BEEN ROTATING NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AROUND A
PRESUMED BUT INVISIBLE OVERALL SYSTEM CENTER TO ITS WEST. AN 18
HOUR AVERAGE GIVES 295/8 FOR THE ADVISORY MOTION. THERE HAS BEEN NO
CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING...SO I'LL JUST PLAGIARIZE
THIS MORNING'S DISCUSSION. THE KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURE IN THE SHORT
TERM REMAINS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHWEST
OF FLORENCE. THIS COULD IMPART MORE OF A NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...AS INDICATED BY THE GFDL MODEL...BUT THE REMAINING
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS FLORENCE MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF
THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWARD TURN
BY DAY 4. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE WELL-CLUSTERED
PRIMARY DYNAMICAL MODELS.
THE MAJOR CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY IS THAT THE CONVECTION HAS
BEEN GRADUALLY MIGRATING CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS CONVECTION HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASING OVER
THE NOW-OBSCURED CLOUD SWIRL...AND THIS MAY BE THE BEGINNING OF A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL INTENSIFICATION. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
WESTWARD...SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND THE ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE
ON DEVELOPING A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER FLORENCE IN THREE DAYS OR SO
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL
GUIDANCE IN MAKING FLORENCE A MAJOR HURRICANE. TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
FLORENCE...ALREADY A LARGE CYCLONE...WILL GET EVEN LARGER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/2100Z 19.0N 51.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 20.0N 53.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 07/1800Z 21.5N 55.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 08/0600Z 22.7N 58.2W 70 KT
48HR VT 08/1800Z 23.7N 60.7W 80 KT
72HR VT 09/1800Z 26.0N 65.0W 95 KT
96HR VT 10/1800Z 29.0N 67.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 11/1800Z 32.5N 67.0W 95 KT
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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cycloneye
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IsaacRules06
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SouthFloridawx
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Here is the plotted postions so far plus the 5 day forecast track by NHC.
Tracking Info For Tropical Storm Florence
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. 21 GMT 09/03/06 14.6N 40.4W 35 1005 Tropical Depression
2. 03 GMT 09/04/06 14.8N 40.4W 35 1005 Tropical Depression
3. 09 GMT 09/04/06 15.6N 41.1W 35 1005 Tropical Depression
4. 15 GMT 09/04/06 16.3N 42.7W 35 1005 Tropical Depression
5. 21 GMT 09/04/06 16.9N 43.8W 35 1005 Tropical Depression
6. 03 GMT 09/05/06 17.3N 44.8W 35 1007 Tropical Depression
7. 09 GMT 09/05/06 17.7N 45.9W 35 1007 Tropical Depression
8. 15 GMT 09/05/06 17.3N 47.3W 40 1005 Tropical Storm
9. 21 GMT 09/05/06 17.4N 48.5W 45 1003 Tropical Storm
10. 03 GMT 09/06/06 17.7N 49.5W 45 1003 Tropical Storm
11. 09 GMT 09/06/06 18.4N 50.2W 45 1003 Tropical Storm
12. 15 GMT 09/06/06 18.3N 50.9W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
5PM 21 GMT 09/06/06 19.0N 51.4W 50 999 Tropical Storm
Tracking Info For Tropical Storm Florence
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. 21 GMT 09/03/06 14.6N 40.4W 35 1005 Tropical Depression
2. 03 GMT 09/04/06 14.8N 40.4W 35 1005 Tropical Depression
3. 09 GMT 09/04/06 15.6N 41.1W 35 1005 Tropical Depression
4. 15 GMT 09/04/06 16.3N 42.7W 35 1005 Tropical Depression
5. 21 GMT 09/04/06 16.9N 43.8W 35 1005 Tropical Depression
6. 03 GMT 09/05/06 17.3N 44.8W 35 1007 Tropical Depression
7. 09 GMT 09/05/06 17.7N 45.9W 35 1007 Tropical Depression
8. 15 GMT 09/05/06 17.3N 47.3W 40 1005 Tropical Storm
9. 21 GMT 09/05/06 17.4N 48.5W 45 1003 Tropical Storm
10. 03 GMT 09/06/06 17.7N 49.5W 45 1003 Tropical Storm
11. 09 GMT 09/06/06 18.4N 50.2W 45 1003 Tropical Storm
12. 15 GMT 09/06/06 18.3N 50.9W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
5PM 21 GMT 09/06/06 19.0N 51.4W 50 999 Tropical Storm
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139118
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
077
WTNT31 KNHC 070238
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 PM AST WED SEP 06 2006
...FLORENCE HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET...
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.5 WEST OR ABOUT 700
MILES...1125 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT
1160 MILES...1870 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
FLORENCE COULD BE A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM
MAINLY NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...19.6 N...52.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
If nothing appears above but an error message, no current WTNT31 data were found.
078
WTNT21 KNHC 070238
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
0300 UTC THU SEP 07 2006
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 52.5W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......225NE 100SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 90SE 90SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 52.5W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 52.0W
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.5N 54.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 100SE 50SW 125NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.9N 56.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 100SE 50SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.1N 59.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 100SE 60SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.3N 62.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 125SE 60SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 27.0N 66.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 125SE 60SW 150NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 30.0N 67.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 33.5N 66.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 52.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
WTNT31 KNHC 070238
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 PM AST WED SEP 06 2006
...FLORENCE HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET...
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.5 WEST OR ABOUT 700
MILES...1125 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT
1160 MILES...1870 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
FLORENCE COULD BE A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM
MAINLY NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...19.6 N...52.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
If nothing appears above but an error message, no current WTNT31 data were found.
078
WTNT21 KNHC 070238
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
0300 UTC THU SEP 07 2006
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 52.5W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......225NE 100SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 90SE 90SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 52.5W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 52.0W
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.5N 54.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 100SE 50SW 125NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.9N 56.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 100SE 50SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.1N 59.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 100SE 60SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.3N 62.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 125SE 60SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 27.0N 66.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 125SE 60SW 150NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 30.0N 67.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 33.5N 66.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 52.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37112
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 06 2006
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE CENTER OF
FLORENCE REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY. THE LATEST SATELLITE
POSITION ESTIMATES FROM THE THREE AGENCIES ARE OVER 90 NM
APART...AND THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY CONCLUSIVE EVIDENCE FROM A
COUPLE OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES OR SHIP REPORTS. GIVEN THE LACK OF
A WELL DEFINED CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN
300/9. NOTWITHSTANDING OUR LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
LOCATION...THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS
INSIST ON AN INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT SHOW AS MUCH
ACCELERATION AND IS CLOSE TO THE SPEED INDICATED BY THE LATEST GFDL
MODEL RUN. OVERALL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE SIMPLE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE
FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
DETERMINING THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC BECAUSE OF THE
AMBIGUITY OF THE CENTER POSITION. HOWEVER OUR BEST ESTIMATE...
USING THE DVORAK SHEAR PATTERN...INDICATES THAT THE CURRENT WIND
SPEED REMAINS AT 45 KT. FLORENCE'S CLOUD PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT
AMORPHOUS AND CONTINUES TO LACK DEFINITE BANDING FEATURES...AS
APPARENTLY SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS STILL INFLUENCING THE SYSTEM.
WATER VAPOR ANIMATION...HOWEVER...SHOWS THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS SLOWLY
RETREATING WESTWARD. THIS WOULD CAUSE THE SHEAR TO RELAX AND
PERMIT FLORENCE TO STRENGTHEN. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE OUTPUT AND SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...SHOWING A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER IN THE PERIOD. WE
SHOULD NOTE...HOWEVER...THERE IS LIMITED SKILL IN TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSITY PREDICTION PARTICULARLY IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/0300Z 19.6N 52.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 07/1200Z 20.5N 54.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 08/0000Z 21.9N 56.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 08/1200Z 23.1N 59.4W 65 KT
48HR VT 09/0000Z 24.3N 62.1W 75 KT
72HR VT 10/0000Z 27.0N 66.0W 90 KT
96HR VT 11/0000Z 30.0N 67.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 12/0000Z 33.5N 66.5W 95 KT
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 06 2006
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE CENTER OF
FLORENCE REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY. THE LATEST SATELLITE
POSITION ESTIMATES FROM THE THREE AGENCIES ARE OVER 90 NM
APART...AND THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY CONCLUSIVE EVIDENCE FROM A
COUPLE OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES OR SHIP REPORTS. GIVEN THE LACK OF
A WELL DEFINED CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN
300/9. NOTWITHSTANDING OUR LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
LOCATION...THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS
INSIST ON AN INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT SHOW AS MUCH
ACCELERATION AND IS CLOSE TO THE SPEED INDICATED BY THE LATEST GFDL
MODEL RUN. OVERALL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE SIMPLE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE
FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
DETERMINING THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC BECAUSE OF THE
AMBIGUITY OF THE CENTER POSITION. HOWEVER OUR BEST ESTIMATE...
USING THE DVORAK SHEAR PATTERN...INDICATES THAT THE CURRENT WIND
SPEED REMAINS AT 45 KT. FLORENCE'S CLOUD PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT
AMORPHOUS AND CONTINUES TO LACK DEFINITE BANDING FEATURES...AS
APPARENTLY SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS STILL INFLUENCING THE SYSTEM.
WATER VAPOR ANIMATION...HOWEVER...SHOWS THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS SLOWLY
RETREATING WESTWARD. THIS WOULD CAUSE THE SHEAR TO RELAX AND
PERMIT FLORENCE TO STRENGTHEN. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE OUTPUT AND SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...SHOWING A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER IN THE PERIOD. WE
SHOULD NOTE...HOWEVER...THERE IS LIMITED SKILL IN TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSITY PREDICTION PARTICULARLY IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/0300Z 19.6N 52.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 07/1200Z 20.5N 54.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 08/0000Z 21.9N 56.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 08/1200Z 23.1N 59.4W 65 KT
48HR VT 09/0000Z 24.3N 62.1W 75 KT
72HR VT 10/0000Z 27.0N 66.0W 90 KT
96HR VT 11/0000Z 30.0N 67.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 12/0000Z 33.5N 66.5W 95 KT
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139118
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
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SouthFLTropics
- Category 5
- Posts: 4156
- Age: 48
- Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
- Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida
000
WTNT31 KNHC 070838
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 AM AST THU SEP 07 2006
...FLORENCE HOLDING STEADY AND MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST....
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.2 WEST OR ABOUT 660
MILES...1060 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
ABOUT 1105 MILES...1780 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
...AND AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
FLORENCE COULD BE A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM
MAINLY EAST FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...20.1 N...53.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
000
WTNT41 KNHC 070837
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 AM EDT THU SEP 07 2006
FRUSTRATION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT TRYING TO LOCATE THE PRIMARY
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF FLORENCE. A 0345 UTC TRMM OVERPASS AND A
0507 UTC AMSU OVERPASS PROVIDED SOME INDICATIONS OF AN OVERALL
SYSTEM CENTER...BUT ALSO SHOWED AT LEAST ONE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CENTER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THAT LOCATION. ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE APPEARANCE OF FLORENCE VERY SIMILAR
TO 24 HOURS AGO...WITH A SLIGHT CURVED BANDING FEATURE AND WARMER
CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KT IN AGREEMENT
WITH DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AS WELL AS A
RECENT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/9. DESPITE THE QUANDARY
IN FINDING THE INITIAL POSITION...THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT AND IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. CONSEQUENTLY
THE REASONING IN THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS UNCHANGED. FLORENCE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...THEN SLOW A BIT AS THE
CYCLONE TURNS MORE TO THE NORTH AS IT IS STEERED AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS CLOSELY THROUGH 5 DAYS.
FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND ENCOUNTER LESS
SHEAR IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...LOCATED A FEW
HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CYCLONE...MOVES WESTWARD AND WEAKENS.
THIS SCENARIO SHOULD ALLOW FLORENCE TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH
MOST OF THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HOLDS
FLORENCE TO JUST UNDER MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...HOWEVER IT STILL
COULD REACH CATEGORY THREE IN BETWEEN THE FORECAST PERIODS. THIS
FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE GUIDANCE FROM BOTH SHIPS AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE. ONCE AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THERE
IS LIMITED SKILL IN TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY PREDICTION
PARTICULARLY IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME.
A SHIP REPORT AT 0600 UTC...FROM MSJZ8...REPORTED A 34 KT SUSTAINED
WIND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THIS REPORT JUSTIFIED EXPANDING THE
WIND RADII OUT TO 250 N MI OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/0900Z 20.1N 53.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 07/1800Z 21.1N 54.9W 50 KT
24HR VT 08/0600Z 22.6N 57.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 08/1800Z 24.0N 60.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 09/0600Z 25.0N 63.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 10/0600Z 27.5N 66.0W 90 KT
96HR VT 11/0600Z 30.5N 67.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 12/0600Z 35.0N 66.0W 95 KT
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
WTNT31 KNHC 070838
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 AM AST THU SEP 07 2006
...FLORENCE HOLDING STEADY AND MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST....
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.2 WEST OR ABOUT 660
MILES...1060 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
ABOUT 1105 MILES...1780 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
...AND AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
FLORENCE COULD BE A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM
MAINLY EAST FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...20.1 N...53.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
000
WTNT41 KNHC 070837
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 AM EDT THU SEP 07 2006
FRUSTRATION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT TRYING TO LOCATE THE PRIMARY
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF FLORENCE. A 0345 UTC TRMM OVERPASS AND A
0507 UTC AMSU OVERPASS PROVIDED SOME INDICATIONS OF AN OVERALL
SYSTEM CENTER...BUT ALSO SHOWED AT LEAST ONE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CENTER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THAT LOCATION. ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE APPEARANCE OF FLORENCE VERY SIMILAR
TO 24 HOURS AGO...WITH A SLIGHT CURVED BANDING FEATURE AND WARMER
CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KT IN AGREEMENT
WITH DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AS WELL AS A
RECENT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/9. DESPITE THE QUANDARY
IN FINDING THE INITIAL POSITION...THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT AND IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. CONSEQUENTLY
THE REASONING IN THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS UNCHANGED. FLORENCE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...THEN SLOW A BIT AS THE
CYCLONE TURNS MORE TO THE NORTH AS IT IS STEERED AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS CLOSELY THROUGH 5 DAYS.
FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND ENCOUNTER LESS
SHEAR IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...LOCATED A FEW
HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CYCLONE...MOVES WESTWARD AND WEAKENS.
THIS SCENARIO SHOULD ALLOW FLORENCE TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH
MOST OF THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HOLDS
FLORENCE TO JUST UNDER MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...HOWEVER IT STILL
COULD REACH CATEGORY THREE IN BETWEEN THE FORECAST PERIODS. THIS
FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE GUIDANCE FROM BOTH SHIPS AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE. ONCE AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THERE
IS LIMITED SKILL IN TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY PREDICTION
PARTICULARLY IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME.
A SHIP REPORT AT 0600 UTC...FROM MSJZ8...REPORTED A 34 KT SUSTAINED
WIND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THIS REPORT JUSTIFIED EXPANDING THE
WIND RADII OUT TO 250 N MI OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/0900Z 20.1N 53.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 07/1800Z 21.1N 54.9W 50 KT
24HR VT 08/0600Z 22.6N 57.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 08/1800Z 24.0N 60.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 09/0600Z 25.0N 63.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 10/0600Z 27.5N 66.0W 90 KT
96HR VT 11/0600Z 30.5N 67.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 12/0600Z 35.0N 66.0W 95 KT
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
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Fourth Generation Floridian...With lots of storm knowledge passed down from my elders...
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37112
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 AM AST THU SEP 07 2006
...FLORENCE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.4 WEST OR ABOUT 645
MILES...1035 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT
1115 MILES...1795 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...19.8 N...53.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1500 UTC THU SEP 07 2006
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 53.4W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......225NE 250SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 250SE 100SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 53.4W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 53.1W
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.0N 55.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...225NE 225SE 0SW 125NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.4N 58.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...225NE 225SE 50SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.6N 60.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...225NE 225SE 60SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.8N 63.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...225NE 225SE 75SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 27.2N 65.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...250NE 225SE 90SW 200NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 30.8N 66.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 35.0N 65.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 53.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 07 2006
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/07 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THERE
REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECASTS OR REASONINGS. UNUSUALLY LARGE...OVER 700 NMI IN
DIAMETER...FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH 72 HOURS...
AND THEN TURN NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE
THAT IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO DEVELOP BY 96 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE NHC
MODEL CONSENSUS.
SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS DUE TO
SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR AND DRY AIR. AFTER THAT...VERTICAL SHEAR
IS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5
KT AS FLORENCE IS MOVING OVER 29C SSTS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE SHIPS MODEL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/1500Z 19.8N 53.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 08/0000Z 21.0N 55.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 08/1200Z 22.4N 58.4W 55 KT
36HR VT 09/0000Z 23.6N 60.9W 65 KT
48HR VT 09/1200Z 24.8N 63.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 10/1200Z 27.2N 65.8W 90 KT
96HR VT 11/1200Z 30.8N 66.5W 95 KT
120HR VT 12/1200Z 35.0N 65.5W 95 KT
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 AM AST THU SEP 07 2006
...FLORENCE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.4 WEST OR ABOUT 645
MILES...1035 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT
1115 MILES...1795 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...19.8 N...53.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1500 UTC THU SEP 07 2006
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 53.4W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......225NE 250SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 250SE 100SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 53.4W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 53.1W
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.0N 55.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...225NE 225SE 0SW 125NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.4N 58.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...225NE 225SE 50SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.6N 60.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...225NE 225SE 60SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.8N 63.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...225NE 225SE 75SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 27.2N 65.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...250NE 225SE 90SW 200NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 30.8N 66.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 35.0N 65.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 53.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 07 2006
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/07 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THERE
REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECASTS OR REASONINGS. UNUSUALLY LARGE...OVER 700 NMI IN
DIAMETER...FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH 72 HOURS...
AND THEN TURN NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE
THAT IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO DEVELOP BY 96 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE NHC
MODEL CONSENSUS.
SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS DUE TO
SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR AND DRY AIR. AFTER THAT...VERTICAL SHEAR
IS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5
KT AS FLORENCE IS MOVING OVER 29C SSTS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE SHIPS MODEL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/1500Z 19.8N 53.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 08/0000Z 21.0N 55.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 08/1200Z 22.4N 58.4W 55 KT
36HR VT 09/0000Z 23.6N 60.9W 65 KT
48HR VT 09/1200Z 24.8N 63.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 10/1200Z 27.2N 65.8W 90 KT
96HR VT 11/1200Z 30.8N 66.5W 95 KT
120HR VT 12/1200Z 35.0N 65.5W 95 KT
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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#neversummer
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139118
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
522
NOUS42 KNHC 071530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT THU 07 SEP 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z SEP 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-100
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE
A. 09/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0106A FLORENCE
C. 09/0330Z
D. 24.2N 62.0W
E. 09/0430Z TO 09/0800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. TEAL 39
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES.
Starting tommorow very early in the morning around 2 AM EDT the first mission will go.
NOUS42 KNHC 071530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT THU 07 SEP 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z SEP 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-100
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE
A. 09/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0106A FLORENCE
C. 09/0330Z
D. 24.2N 62.0W
E. 09/0430Z TO 09/0800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. TEAL 39
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES.
Starting tommorow very early in the morning around 2 AM EDT the first mission will go.
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