Hurricane Florence - Cat. 1

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cycloneye
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#981 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 12, 2006 3:41 pm

WTNT31 KNHC 122035
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 PM AST TUE SEP 12 2006

...FLORENCE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY....

RESIDENTS IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA SHOULD CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 39.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.3 WEST OR ABOUT 600 MILES...
965 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS FLORENCE BECOMES A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 415
MILES...665 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS... INCLUDING STRONG
RIP CURRENTS... ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS... AND PORTIONS OF THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON
COASTAL CONDITIONS.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...39.3 N...59.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH


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#982 Postby Brent » Tue Sep 12, 2006 3:42 pm

Goodbye.

HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
2100 UTC TUE SEP 12 2006

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 59.3W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT.......180NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.
34 KT.......360NE 300SE 240SW 300NW.
12 FT SEAS..475NE 375SE 450SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 59.3W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 60.2W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 41.8N 56.3W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.
34 KT...360NE 300SE 240SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 45.0N 52.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.
50 KT...150NE 210SE 210SW 150NW.
34 KT...300NE 360SE 300SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 47.2N 46.4W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 180SE 180SW 0NW.
34 KT...240NE 360SE 360SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 48.0N 40.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 180SE 180SW 0NW.
34 KT...240NE 360SE 360SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 49.5N 24.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 420SE 360SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.3N 59.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON FLORENCE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006

FLORENCE IS QUICKLY BECOMING A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE ONLY CONVECTION REMAINING NEAR THE CENTER IS A BAND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ABOUT 100 NM NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER. THIS BAND MAY ACTUALLY BE ASSOCIATED MORE WITH THE
PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS
AND AN EXPERIMENTAL SURFACE ADJUSTED CLOUD DRIFT WIND PRODUCT
FROM UW-CIMSS INDICATE THAT THE WINDS FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND.
THE EXTRATROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG AS IT PASSES
SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND IN DAY OR SO.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/17. FLORENCE HAS BEEN TRACKING ALONG THE
RIGHT SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK WAS ONCE AGAIN ADJUSTED EASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT FLORENCE COULD BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW PRESSURE
AREA A LITTLE SOONER THAN SHOWN.

LARGE NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PRODUCING ROUGH
SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG MOST OF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES FOR ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS. THE RADII OF 12-FT SEAS
SHOWN IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY DOES NOT FULLY ACCOUNT FOR THIS HUGE
AREA OF HIGH WAVES INDIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON FLORENCE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/2100Z 39.3N 59.3W 65 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 41.8N 56.3W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 13/1800Z 45.0N 52.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 14/0600Z 47.2N 46.4W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 14/1800Z 48.0N 40.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 15/1800Z 49.5N 24.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 16/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
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#983 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 12, 2006 4:31 pm

Now classified as extratropical by the NHC. It's still of hurricane strength though.
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#984 Postby HenkL » Tue Sep 12, 2006 4:32 pm

The Canadians continue:

WOCN31 CWHX 122100
INTERMEDIATE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 6.00 PM ADT TUESDAY
12 SEPTEMBER 2006.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

... RAINFALL IMMINENT IN SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND ...

HURRICANE FLORENCE HAS EVOLVED SUFFICIENTLY AWAY FROM ITS TROPICAL
PHASE THAT THE US NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS DECLARED IT TO BE
EXTRATROPICAL. THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE WILL CONTINUE FOLLOWING
FLORENCE AS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THIS AND SUBSEQUENT MESSAGES.

AT 6.00 PM ADT... POST-TROPICAL CYCLONEFLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 39.5 N AND LONGITUDE 59.4 W... ABOUT 270 NAUTICAL MILES OR
498 KM SOUTH OF SABLE ISLAND. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS... 37 KM/H. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT
HURRICANE STRENGTH AND ARE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS... 120 KM/H AND
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 980 MB.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURING 400 NAUTICAL MILES OR 740 KM NORTHEAST
OF THE CENTRE. PRESSURE IS DROPPING RAPIDLY AT THE LAURENTIAN FAN
BUOY 44141 WHILE THE HIGHEST BUOY WINDS REPORTED ARE 46 KNOTS OR
85 KM/H FROM 44137 IN THE EAST SCOTIAN SLOPE MARINE AREA.

HOLYROOD RADAR SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN
TIPS OF THE BURIN AND AVALON PENINSULAS AND ADVANCING NORTHWARDS.

PUBLIC AND MARINE INTERESTS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR FORECASTS
AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THEIR REGION BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA.

END BOWYER


Information statements can be found here
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#985 Postby lester » Tue Sep 12, 2006 4:51 pm

bye Flo Jo
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#986 Postby conestogo_flood » Tue Sep 12, 2006 5:56 pm

Sable Island, Nova Scotia reporting 32 mph winds gusting to 43 mph.
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#987 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Sep 12, 2006 6:57 pm

Bye, girl.
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#988 Postby tropicana » Tue Sep 12, 2006 7:05 pm

POST-TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY
THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.30 PM
NDT TUESDAY 12 SEPTEMBER 2006.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.30 AM NDT

...RAIN AHEAD OF POST-TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE MOVING ACROSS
AVALON AND BURIN PENINSULAS..WINDS TO FOLLOW OVERNIGHT...


AT 9.30 PM NDT... POST-TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 40.3 N AND LONGITUDE 58.5 W... ABOUT 265 MILES
OR 420 KM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF SABLE ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 75MPH... 120 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 980 MB. FLORENCE IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 22MPH... 35 KM/H.


TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. WIND GUSTS NEAR 63MPH /100 KM/H CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITH LOCAL COASTAL GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE..75 MPH 120
KM/H..NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 75 TO 125 MM (3 TO
5 INCHES) ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NEWFOUNDLAND. WIND
AND RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

DANGEROUS SURF FROM 10 METRE BREAKING SWELLS SHOULD BE EXPECTED
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON WEDNESDAY. HEAVY WAVE
ACTION AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATERS LEVELS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN
AREAS AROUND THE BURIN..AVALON AND BONAVISTA PENINSULAS ON WEDNESDAY.

MARITIMES: ROUGH AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SURF IS STILL EXPECTED
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
5-6 METRE SWELLS ROLL INTO THE COASTLINE AND BREAK ONSHORE.

GALES ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE CURRENT TIME FROM ALL SOUTHERN
MARITIME WATERS WITH GALES REACHING 400 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHEAST OF
THE STORM CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE LAURENTIAN
FAN AREA.

A SWATH OF GALE AND STORM FORCE WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
SOUTHERN MARITIME WATERS AND OVER MANY NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS. VERY
HIGH SEAS ARE ALSO PREDICTED OVER THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS ON
WEDNESDAY WHERE HEIGHTS COULD REACH 15 METERS.

CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE FROM THE PAUCITY OF
DATA. HOWEVER STRONG TRANSITION SHOULD KEEP THE PRESSURE FROM FILLING
TOO RAPIDLY.

FSU CPS DIAGRAMS FOR GFS UKMET AND MM5 FROM FSU INDICATE THAT
FLORENCE REMAINS WARM CORE UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY WHILE GOING THROUGH
A PERIOD OF INCREASING AND THEN DECREASING ASYMMETRY. THE CMC MODEL
SIMPLY COMPLETES TRANSITION IN A MORE TRADITIONAL SENSE BY THIS TIME.
THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT... FRONT-LIKE
FEATURES... AND LOSS OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION LEAD US TO DECLARE
FLORENCE AS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. THIS WAS IN
AGREEMENT WITH NHC FOLLOWING DISCUSSION.

WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE
MARITIME PROVINCES. CONVECTION HAS JUST STARTED TO FORM NEAR THE
CENTRE OF THE STORM WHICH COULD BE AN INDICATION OF ENHANCED VERTICAL
MOTION FROM THE INTERACTING SHORTWAVE.

IN THE LAST TRACK OF THE NHC THEY FAVOURED THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
ENVELOPE OF MODELS. THIS CERTAINLY FITS THE MOTION OF THE STORM
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS BUT WE FEEL COMPELLED TO REMAIN WITH THE
IDEA THAT NUMEROUS MODELS HAVE ALLUDED TO OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS
WITH FLORENCE EXHIBITING AN S-SHAPED TRACK BEFORE PASSING EAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND. THIS ALSO RESULTS IN US ERRING ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION WITH REGARD TO NEWFOUNDLAND. ALSO..THE 18Z RUN OF GFS
MODEL SHOWS POST-TROPICAL FLORENCE MOVING WITH A MORE NORTHWARD
COMPONENT OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OBSERVED IN WATER VAPOUR
IMAGERY THIS EVENING DIGS OVER THE MARITIMES. THIS COULD INDEED
RESUT IN THE S-SHAPED STORM TRAJECTORY WHICH WOULD BRING THE CENTRE
CLOSER TO NEWFOUNDLAND.

FLORENCE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER COOLER SSTS BUT THE TROPICAL
WEAKENING THAT WOULD OCCUR FROM THAT SHOULD BE OFFSET BY THE
STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT AND TROUGH INTERACTION THAT IS
ALREADY UNDERWAY.

THE GALE RADII REFLECT BOTH THE STORM AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OUT AHEAD AND THE CMC MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE FAR REACHING GALES
OUT AHEAD OF THE STORM WILL SHIFT TO GALES THAT REACH FARTHER SOUTH
ON WEDNESDAY.

END
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#989 Postby HurricaneBelle » Tue Sep 12, 2006 10:10 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Now classified as extratropical by the NHC. It's still of hurricane strength though.


NHC a bit quick to give up on it as tropical - quite a burst of convection has redeveloped just north of the center tonight.
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#990 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 12, 2006 10:20 pm

HurricaneBelle wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Now classified as extratropical by the NHC. It's still of hurricane strength though.


NHC a bit quick to give up on it as tropical - quite a burst of convection has redeveloped just north of the center tonight.


I just saw that.
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#991 Postby tropicana » Wed Sep 13, 2006 5:30 am

POST-TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY
THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.30 AM
NDT WEDNESDAY 13 SEPTEMBER 2006.

THE NEXT FULL STATEMENT AT 9.30 AM NDT.

...HIGH WINDS AND RAIN OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND TODAY AS THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE FLORENCE MOVE THROUGH...

AT 3.30 AM NDT... POST-TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 42.4 N AND LONGITUDE 57.0 W... ABOUT 350 MILES
OR 560 KM SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 75MPH... 120 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 977 MB. THE STORM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 24MPH... 39
KM/H.

THE CIRCULATION CENTRE WAS QUITE EASY TO FOLLOW ON INFRARED IMAGERY
PRIOR TO GOES-12 SATELLITE ECLIPSE. WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATED A TROUGH WAS DIGGING TO THE SOUTH ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
STORM AND CONVECTION HAD FLARED UP NEAR THE CENTRE. THE STORM IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BASED ON ANIMATION OF SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE TRACK WAS ADUSTED A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR WHAT WAS SEEN IN THE IMAGERY. RAIN IS
APPROACHING EASTERN CAPE BRETON AT FORECAST TIME.

WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 50MPHOR 80 KM/H ON CAPE RACE ALREADY AND
WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING.

OVERALL THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT FOR SOME
TWEAKS TO THE TRACK AND CENTRAL PRESSURE DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THESE ADJUSTMENTS ARE IN LIGHT OF INFORMATION
GLEANED FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY..SURFACE OBSERVATIONS..AND AGREEMENT
BETWEEN TWO OF OUR PRINCIPLE SOURCES OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE..THE GEM
AND GFS MODELS. THESE MODELS BRING THE CENTRE OF THE STORM JUST SOUTH
OF CAPE RACE THIS AFTERNOON.

GFS SHOWS A NICE PV ROLL-UP AROUND THE STORM CENTRE WHICH WOULD
EXPLAIN THE STEADY TO MODERATELY-DECREASING CENTRAL PRESSURE TREND IN
ITS FORECAST FIELDS. AFTER THE POSITIVE INTERACTION..THE STORM SHOULD
MOVE ON A MORE EASTWARD TRACK .


A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS RETAINED FOR THE BONAVISTA NORTH AND TERRA
NOVA DISTRICTS DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER TROPICAL STORM-
FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR THERE. THE WATCH MAY BE UPDATED TO A WARNING
THIS MORNING.

END
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#992 Postby mtm4319 » Wed Sep 13, 2006 8:41 am

http://text.www.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/ ... tml?id=WTP

St. John's radar as Florence approaches and is currently affecting Newfoundland. The extratropical remnant's center of circulation looks like it will make landfall on the eastern part of NF later today.
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#993 Postby Windsurfer_NYC » Wed Sep 13, 2006 9:30 am

CrazyC83 wrote:Now classified as extratropical by the NHC. It's still of hurricane strength though.


What naming scheme should we use now that she's extra-tropical? Do we still call her "Hurricane Florence", or something else like "Extra-tropical Florence" or "The Low formerly known as Florence", or what?
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#994 Postby tropicana » Wed Sep 13, 2006 9:41 am

POST-TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY
THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.30 AM
NDT WEDNESDAY 13 SEPTEMBER 2006.

NEXT FULL STATEMENT BY 3.30 PM NDT

...HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN SPREADING ACROSS ACROSS THE AVALON
AND BURIN PENINSULAS AS REMNANTS OF FLORENCE BEAR DOWN...

AT 9.30 AM NDT... POST-TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 45.1 N AND LONGITUDE 55.5 W... ABOUT 160 MILES
OR 255 KM SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 70MPH... 111 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 975 MB.
FLORENCE IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 24MPH... 39 KM/H.


NEWFOUNDLAND: TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. WIND GUSTS NEAR 63MPH 100 KM/H CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITH LOCAL COASTAL GUSTS TO 81MPH 130KM/H IN EXPOSED COASTAL
AREAS. MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 60 TO 90 MM ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE ISLAND. AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 100 MM
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION..BUT WE FEEL ARE LESS LIKELY NOW GIVEN
THE RAPID MOTION OF THE STORM AND DIMINISHING CLOUDMASS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE STORM CENTRE. WIND AND RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR PARTS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

DANGEROUS SURF UP TO 8 METRES FROM BREAKING SWELLS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE SOUTHERN AVALON PENINSULA. HEAVY SWELL CAN ALSO BE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND WITH LESSER
WAVE HEIGHTS FARTHER WEST. HEAVY WAVE ACTION AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL
WATERS LEVELS WILL DEVELOP IN AREAS AROUND THE BURIN..AVALON AND
BONAVISTA PENINSULAS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

A SWATH OF GALE AND STORM-FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
MANY NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS AND SOUTHEASTERN MARITIME WATERS. WAVE
HEIGHTS NEAR 7 METRES WERE REPORTED AT BUOY 44141 ON LAURENTIAN FAN.
SIG WAVE HEIGHTS OVER 7 METRES ARE NOW BEING REPORTED ON THE SOUTHERN
GRAND BANKS. THESE SEAS WILL ONLY BUILD FURTHER OVER THE GRAND BANKS
TODAY WHERE HEIGHTS COULD REACH 15 METERS. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY
BUILDING OVER THESOUTHERN GRAND BANKS AS THE STORM MOVES TOWARD CAPE
RACE.


WE HAVE SEEN A STRONG INTERACTION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS
DEEPENED THE STORM A BIT OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE JUST ADJUSTED THE STORM
POSITION A BIT FARTHER NORTHWEST BASED ON THE MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS
AND THE FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. BUOY DATA SUGGEST THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINS QUITE LOW AND IS FACT A BIT LOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT..NOW 975 MB.

CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING RAPIDLY THIS MORNING AS THE STORM RACES
TOWARD THE AVALON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THE MOTION MAY BE A BIT
FASTER THAN THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE. ARCING BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
SWEEPING ACROSS THE AVALON AND BURIN PENINSULAS. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS BUILDING WESTWARD OVER EXTREME EASTERN CAPE BRETON.

PEAK WINDS OF 70-75 MPH 110-120 KM/H IN SOME LOCATIONS ON THE SOUTHERN AVALON
AND BURIN PENINSULAS THIS MORNING.
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#995 Postby P.K. » Wed Sep 13, 2006 10:16 am

The minimum central pressure has dropped from 979hPa at 0600 GMT to 972hPa at 1200 GMT based on the Met Office analysis charts. http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/bracka.gif
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#996 Postby tropicana » Wed Sep 13, 2006 4:22 pm

POST-TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY
THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.30 PM
NDT WEDNESDAY 13 SEPTEMBER 2006.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.30 PM NDT

... POST-TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE BATTERS SOUTHEASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND...

AT 3.30 PM NDT... POST-TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 46.1 N AND LONGITUDE 54.2 W... ABOUT 65 MILES
OR 105 KM SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 75MPH... 120 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
968 MB. FLORENCE IS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 18MPH... 28 KM/H.


WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE WERE REPORTED FROM NUMEROUS LOCATIONS
TODAY AS POST-TROPICAL FLORENCE APPROACHED NEWFOUNDLAND. SAGONA
ISLAND CAME IN WITH HIGHEST PEAK WINDS OF 102MPH... 163 KM/H AT
2:30 PM NDT. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 63MPH 100 KM/H WERE REPORTED FROM
COASTAL SITES THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

RAINFALL MOVED INTO NEWFOUNDLAND IN A COUPLE OF HEAVY RAINBANDS
WITH 40-50 MM BEING REPORTED FROM LOCATIONS ON THE BURIN AND AVALON
PENINSULAS.

THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF WAVE OR SURGE AMOUNTS NEAR THE COASTS
AS OF FORECAST TIME ALTHOUGH DANGEROUS SURF OF 6-8 METRES AND
HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS ARE STILL EXPECTED AROUND THE BURIN..
AVALON AND BONAVISTA PENINSULAS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
NEWFOUNDLAND AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE ISLAND. MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 70-80 MM ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE ISLAND ALTHOUGH LOWER
AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKELY. WIND AND RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR PARTS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

FOR THE MARITIMES... ROUGH RESIDUAL SURF OF 2-3 METRE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT.
POST-TROPICAL FLORENCE CONTINUED DEEPENING AS IT MOVED UNDER THE
UPPER CENTRE LATE THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW TRACKED ALMOST DUE
NORHT FOR A NUMBER OF HOURS BEFORE LOOPING UNDER THE UPPER LOW.
FOLLOWING THAT IT BEGAN A SLOW MOTION EASTWARD NOW AS A CAPTURED
SYSTEM. ACCORDINGLY WE SHOW A SLOW MOTION EASTWARD AND RETAIN A
CENTRAL PRESSURE BELOW 970 MB. VISIUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY MORNING
QUIKSCAT DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE HELPED PINPOINT BOTH
THE POSITION AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW CENTRE.

DRY AIR WRAPPED AROUND THE SYSTEM WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STORM DRYING OUT COMPLETELY. THE SAT SIGNATURE NOW LOOKS LIKE A
MATURE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. PUBLIC REPORTS OF SUNSHINE IN THE
AVALON PENINSULA VERIFIED THE COMPLETE LACK OF MID CLOUD.

CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND THE CLOUD MASS HAS THINNED OUT IN THE
MAIN RAIN AREA OVER NEWFOUNDLAND... SO THE CONCERN NOW IS HOW MUCH
RAIN WILL NOW OCCUR AS THE STORM BEGINS TO PULL AWAY. IT IS LIKELY
THAT ONLY ANOTHER 5-10MM MAY OCCUR OVER THE AVALON AS IT MOVES BACK
IN... HOWEVER ANOTHER 20+ MM SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

END
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#997 Postby tropicana » Wed Sep 13, 2006 4:27 pm

INTERMEDIATE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 6.30 PM NDT WEDNESDAY
13 SEPTEMBER 2006.

THE NEXT FULL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.30 PM NDT

... POST-TROPICAL STROM FLORENCE WREAKS HAVOC IN NEWFOUNDLAND ...

AT 6.30 PM NDT... POST-TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 46.7 N AND LONGITUDE 52.4 W... ABOUT 35 MILES
OR 56 KM EAST OF CAPE RACE AND MOVING EAST NORTHEAST 26 MPH OR
41 KM/H. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB.

FLORENCE TURNED ON AN EASTWARD TRACK TODAY BEFORE ITS CENTRE
REACHED THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND NEAR THE BURIN PENINSULA... BUT
THAT DID NOT STOP IT FROM BRINGING HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS TO
COASTAL AREAS EAST OF BURGEO UP TO AND INCLUDING THE BURIN PENINSULA.
PEAK WINDS OF 102 MPH 163 KM/H WERE REPORTED FROM SAGONA ISLAND. THE MEDIA
REPORT THAT A HOUSE IN FRANCOIS... APPROXIMATELY 44 MILES 70 KM
EAST OF BURGEO... WAS COMPLETELY DESTROYED BY THE WINDS. PEAK WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 62MPH 100 KM/H BLEW ALONG THE EAST COAST AS FAR NORTH AS
POOLS ISLAND.

HEAVIEST RAINFALLS HAVE BEEN 40-70 MM FROM AROUND THE BURIN
PENINSULA WITH AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MM ELSEWHERE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND. EXTREME NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF
NEWFOUNDLAND HAVE SEEN LITTLE RAIN.

AT 5:30 PM NDT THE CENTRE OF POST-TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED BETWEEN THE NICKERSON BANK BUOY AND THE CAPE RACE WEATHER
STATION. AT THAT TIME THE BUOY REPORTED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WHILE
THE LAND STATION REPORTED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS... BOTH WITH A PRESSURE
NEAR 965 MB. ACCORDINGLY THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE STORM WAS
INTERPRETTED TO BE 1-2 MB LOWER... AT AROUND 963 MB.
PUBLIC AND MARINE INTERESTS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR FORECASTS
AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THEIR REGION BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA.

END
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#998 Postby tropicana » Wed Sep 13, 2006 7:13 pm

POST-TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.30 PM NDT
WEDNESDAY 13 SEPTEMBER 2006.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 12.30 AM NDT FOLLOWED BY THE
NEXT FULL STATEMENT AT 3.30 AM NDT.

...REMNANT STORM ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE FLORENCE NOW PULLING
AWAY FROM NEWFOUNDLAND...


AT 9.30 PM NDT... POST-TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 47.4 N AND LONGITUDE 51.8 W... ABOUT 40 NAUTICAL MILES OR
46 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF ST JOHNS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 75MPH... 120 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 963
MB. FLORENCE IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 26MPH... 41 KM/H.

NOTE THAT THIS POST-TROPICAL STORM HAS A LARGE AREA OF LIGHTER
WINDS NEAR ITS CENTRE AND AS SUCH THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
NOT LOCATED IN A TIGHT BAND AROUND THE CENTRE AS WITH A TYPICAL
TROPICAL SYSTEM.


TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL PUBLIC REGIONS ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND (EXCEPT IN THE SOUTHWEST) AND ALONG
THE EAST COAST FROM CAPE RACE UP TO AND INCLUDING THE BONAVISTA
NORTH DISTRICT. THESE WARNINGS MEAN THAT GALE FORCE WINDS OF
SUSTAINED 65 KM/H ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. THESE
WARNINGS WILL BE ENDING OVERNIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY.

A LARGE AREA OF GALE AND STORM-FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
MANY NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS AND SOME EASTERN MARITIME WATERS. GALE
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT TO ABOUT 500 NAUTICAL MILES OR MORE TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTRE.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA SHOWED THE CENTRE OF EX-HURRICANE
FLORENCE PASSED NEAR BUT LIKELY JUST SOUTH OF CAPE RACE BETWEEN
20 AND 21Z FOLLOWING WHICH IT ADOPTED A MORE NORTHEASTWARD TRACK.
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS SET BY SURFACE DATA AT 963 MB AS IT PASSED CAPE
RACE AS OUTLINED IN THE 6:30 PM NDT INTERMEDIATE UPDATE BULLETIN. THE
HOLYROOD RADAR ON THE AVALON PENINSULA SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION CENTRE PASSING VERY NEAR CAPE RACE.

WIDESPREAD GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM AS IT DEPARTS NEWFOUNDLAND MARINE
AREAS.

THE CHC WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE ON THIS STORM
TONIGHT UNTIL IT MOVES AWAY. WE WILL PROVIDE SUMMARIES OF
OBSERVATIONS AND IMPACTS EARLY TOMORROW.

END
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#999 Postby tropicana » Wed Sep 13, 2006 10:01 pm

POST-TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE INTERMEDIATE INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 12.30 MIDNIGHT NDT THURSDAY 14 SEPTEMBER 2006.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.30 AM NDT

AT 12.30 AM NDT... POST-TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 47.9 N AND LONGITUDE 50.0 W... ABOUT 130 MILES
OR 205 KM EAST OF ST JOHNS NF.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 28MPH... 44 KM/H.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 75MPH... 120 KM/H AND
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 965 MB.

ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE BEING LIFTED FOR
NEWFOUNDLAND AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY..ALL RAINFALL AND INLAND WIND
WARNINGS ARE BEING ENDED MOMENTARILY. THE CENTRE OF THE STORM IS
MOVING AWAY FROM THE ISLAND. ALTHOUGH WARNINGS ARE BEING ENDED..GUSTY
WINDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT.

GALE AND STORM FORCE WIND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
MARINE DISTRICT. HEAVY WAVES AND SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN SHORELINES OF NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT.

END FOGARTY
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#1000 Postby tropicana » Thu Sep 14, 2006 4:33 am

POST-TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY
THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.30 AM
NDT THURSDAY 14 SEPTEMBER 2006.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 6.30 AM NDT WITH A FINAL
STATEMENT CONTAINING STORM SUMMARY INFORMATION AT 9.30 AM NDT.

...REMNANTS OF FLORENCE LINGERING OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND BUT
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING...

AT 3.30 AM NDT... POST-TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 48.8 N AND LONGITUDE 48.8 W... ABOUT 200 MILES
OR 320 KM EAST NORTHEAST OF ST JOHNS NF. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 70MPH... 111 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
966 MB. FLORENCE IS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 24MPH... 39 KM/H.


ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM HAVE BEEN ENDED
AS OF 12.30 AM NDT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING OVER EASTERNMOST
PARTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND. RAIN HAS NOW ENDED OVER MOST AREAS.

ROUGH SURF OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE ISLAND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS THE STORM MOVES EASTWARD.

GALE AND STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY OVER EASTERN WATERS
WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. HIGH
SEAS WILL BE EXPERIENCED OVER THE GRAND BANKS THIS MORNING THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY. SIG WAVES OVER 10M HAVE BEEN
REPORTED OVER THE NORTHERN GRAND BANKS.

IT APPEARS THAT THE REMNANT STORM ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER HURRICANE
FLORENCE IS BEGINNING TO FILL AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GRAND
BANKS. OIL RIGS AND SHIPS OVER THE BANKS HAVE REPORTED SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OVER HURRICANE FORCE AT ANEMOMETER LEVEL.

OVER LAND..RADAR INDICATES THAT RAIN HAS ENDED. SURFACE WEATHER
STATIONS ARE STILL REPORTING WIND GUSTS NEAR 56MPH 90 KM/H OVER EASTERN
COASTAL SECTIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND.

ALL MODELS SHOW THE LOW MOVING TOWARD THE ENE TODAY WHILE IT SLOWLY
WEAKENS.

END
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