Hurricane Gordon - Cat. 3

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AZS
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#381 Postby AZS » Mon Sep 18, 2006 4:00 pm

Stupid Gordon !!!

Can this kind of systems form tornados over the islands ?
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#382 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 18, 2006 5:03 pm

Does anyone have the webpage of the Weather Service of the Azores Islands?

Another question that maybe P.K. can answer it, was this watch issued by the Azores or by Portugal?
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#383 Postby HenkL » Mon Sep 18, 2006 5:18 pm

The Azores do belong to Portugal. You can find the weather service for Portugal here.
They give warnings for stormy weather, not for tropical systems as such. Most European countries are used to have extratropical storms, with winds that can be heavier than a tropical storm. We often use the Beaufort scale, where force 8 is the same as tropical storm wind (34 kt) and force 12 is the same as hurricane force winds (more then 63 kt).
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#384 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 18, 2006 5:23 pm

:uarrow: Thanks. I asked because I find interesting that when a tropical system is a menace to the Antilles countries like France, Denmark, Britain, and your Netherlands issue the watches and warning needed to address the situation. Moreover, a few years ago Canada started issuing hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for its Atlantic coast. Before they would issue a Gale Warning. :uarrow:
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#385 Postby P.K. » Mon Sep 18, 2006 5:32 pm

You'll find the actual warnings and criteria at http://web.meteo.pt/en/previsao/SAM/sam.jsp.
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#386 Postby Cyclenall » Mon Sep 18, 2006 6:01 pm

senorpepr wrote:
Cyclenall wrote:
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:He kinda looks annular.

He doesn't look annular at all. He looked annular days ago.


He NEVER looked annular.

No storms this year have look annular--or never close to being annular.

"Annular hurricanes are axisymmetric — symmetric along every radial axis, i.e. very circular in appearance. They lack the spiralform rainbands which are characteristic of typical tropical cyclones."

"Annular hurricanes are very rare. Few storms meet all of the criteria, although many strong storms resemble annular hurricanes in some criteria. Fewer than 1% of Atlantic tropical cyclones encounter all of the environmental conditions associated with annular hurricanes. In the Eastern Pacific, such conditions are more common, but still very unusual — 3% of Pacific tropical cyclones encounter them."

You don't think Gordon ever looked annular? I have lots of images that show a very much like annular look. I'm NOT saying Gordon was annular but he looked annular.

No storms this year have look annular--or never close to being annular.

In the Atlantic or worldwide?
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#387 Postby MiamiensisWx » Mon Sep 18, 2006 6:59 pm

Looking at water vapor, the full effects of the ULT to the northwest of Gordon and much less apparent surface front to the west-northwest of Gordon, both of which may aid in increasing mid-level shear over Gordon and extratropical transition of the system (Gordon), may not take full effect until after 56 hours. Both features have slowed sonewhat, including the large ULL associated with the ULT, which may allow Gordon to maintain it's structure - and hurricane intensity - longer until it gets much closer to the Azores before the full effects of shearing and the large ULL aid in transferring it's structure into an extratropical system. Gordon is also mpving parallel to the ULT, also aiding in reducing the effects of shear longer.
Last edited by MiamiensisWx on Mon Sep 18, 2006 7:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#388 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Sep 18, 2006 7:04 pm

I dont think we will see much weakening, if any before reaching the Azores

I explain it in a new Gordon forecast I am finishing, but it does not look that good for the Azores

and here we all thought Gordon would end up as a fish... Mr 1100 deaths and no retirement will not go away that easily...
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#389 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 18, 2006 7:39 pm

HURRICANE GORDON (AL072006) ON 20060919 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060919 0000 060919 1200 060920 0000 060920 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 37.9N 43.2W 37.8N 36.7W 37.3N 29.1W 37.0N 20.0W
BAMM 37.9N 43.2W 37.9N 37.4W 37.6N 30.5W 37.7N 22.0W
A98E 37.9N 43.2W 38.5N 36.5W 38.7N 28.7W 39.9N 21.6W
LBAR 37.9N 43.2W 38.6N 37.0W 39.5N 30.3W 41.7N 22.0W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060921 0000 060922 0000 060923 0000 060924 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 37.9N 11.5W 46.3N 1.6W 57.1N 3.8W 64.0N 6.0W
BAMM 39.5N 13.3W 48.6N 5.9W 57.3N 8.7W 62.4N 13.3W
A98E 40.8N 18.6W 40.0N 6.3W 40.9N 7.1E 45.7N 15.4E
LBAR 45.3N 13.9W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 37.9N LONCUR = 43.2W DIRCUR = 80DEG SPDCUR = 24KT
LATM12 = 36.9N LONM12 = 48.8W DIRM12 = 66DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 34.9N LONM24 = 52.1W
WNDCUR = 85KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 80KT
CENPRS = 972MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 60NM


Now up to 85kts.
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#390 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon Sep 18, 2006 7:40 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Now up to 85kts.


why is gordon intensifying?
what are the water temps?
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#391 Postby MiamiensisWx » Mon Sep 18, 2006 7:40 pm

This system is really the Epsilon of 2006 in some matters (although many synoptic and other factors between Gordon and Epsilon are much different).
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#392 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Sep 18, 2006 7:42 pm

so, according to the models, Gordon is a Cat 2 now? wow...talk about the crow forecasts of it weakening earlier this week...
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#393 Postby superfly » Mon Sep 18, 2006 7:45 pm

Keep in mind, Gordon has sped up its forward movement considerably which will result in higher maximum sustained winds if everything else remains the same.
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Derek Ortt

#394 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Sep 18, 2006 8:13 pm

read the evening forecast or the news update on PNJ

I explain it there (probably a little better at PNJ)
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#395 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 18, 2006 8:18 pm

Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT - Version 7.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 SEP 2006 Time : 004500 UTC
Lat : 37:47:41 N Lon : 42:39:39 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 946.3mb/112.4kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 5.7 5.5 5.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : -4.1mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 27 km

Center Temp : -8.0C Cloud Region Temp : -55.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

According to that, Gordon is a strong Cat3 (almost Cat4), but that seems overestimated.
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#396 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Sep 18, 2006 8:43 pm

I was going to post my forecast but now I see that NHC may upgrade this storm at 11pm. So I'll wait for the advisory to come out.
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#397 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 18, 2006 8:52 pm

I had stopped but since he held on and is a land threat, I am resuming forecasts on Gordon.
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#398 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 18, 2006 9:15 pm

Image

GO GORDON!!!
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#399 Postby AJC3 » Mon Sep 18, 2006 9:28 pm

Has anyone done an ACE calculation for Gordon?
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#400 Postby RattleMan » Mon Sep 18, 2006 9:42 pm

AJC3 wrote:Has anyone done an ACE calculation for Gordon?


There's a page at Wikipedia for it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:2006_ ... 07L.Gordon
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