Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

[Blown Away]

The real question is will Helene turn N at 50W or 55W.

[wzrgirl1]

how can I get archives from Andrew forecasts 5-7 days out just to see what models showed back then?

There wasn't a lot of model data back then. JB always mentions the Plymouth college site for archived weather charts/ models, but I've never figured out how to navigate it to produce the charts. Someone have a link here?

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/

Chris,is this what you are looking for?

who is chris? if you were talking to me...my name is wendy.....if not....sorry

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yuck... I hate mid temps... Anything under 80 is cold for me.



54 right now...With big thunderstorms moving thorugh all afternoon. Pea sized or better hail. With 2 to 3 inches of moving water moving down the street!

This front is very weak...giving us nothing...mets here arent to thrilled about it...

That's not the front/trof we're talking about turning Helene northward. It's the BIG front that'll move off the east coast on the evening of the 19th - next Tuesday night. That's the trof that'll move out into the Atlantic and steer Helene out to sea.

Maybe our Mets are missing something...they are not forecasting that front to be off the coast till at least next Thursday....more than enough time to get Helene 1) closer if not into the NE part of the Caribbean and 2) maybe into the Bahamas....just a thought.

No, they're not missing anything. The cofusion lies in the fact that there are 3 fronts moving into the east coast over the next week. One fairly weak one will stall out this weekend. A stronger front moves just off most of the east coast Tuesday night, and the third front arrives next Thursday and clears everything out, bringing some pretty cool air to the east coast, even mild tems into Florida.

[Windtalker1]

The real question is will Helene turn N at 50W or 55W.

or 60 or 65

[Windtalker1]

10 - Day Forecast
Today

Mostly cloudy w/t-storms
91º/75º Friday

Mostly cloudy w/t-storms
92º/77º Saturday

Partly sunny w/t-storms
92º/76º Sunday

Partly sunny
92º/76º Monday

Partly sunny
91º/78º

Tuesday

Hazy sunshine
89º/73º Wednesday

Hazy sunshine
89º/76º Thursday

Hazy sunshine
91º/75º Friday

Mostly cloudy
89º/74º Saturday

Hazy sunshine
90º/73º

Forcast For South Florida Through Next Weekend...No COLD Front here.

[Scorpion]

Well, the lows look to be getting a little lower. Maybe that might be it?

[linkerweather]

I know for 100% fact that Andrew was "supposed" to curve out to sea when it was first declared a depression. Then the Bermuda High built in. I have Norcross saying so on VHS. PBS used to air a documentary on the history of Miami and besides other hurricanes of our past, Andrew was part of the documentary. The Andrew segment begins with Norcross saying that it is expected to curve out to sea. Things changed along the way, and the rest is history.

=)

Here is the ONLY NHC discussion that even has the word recurve in it. Read for yourself.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_w ... al0492.006

[Damar91]

I know for 100% fact that Andrew was "supposed" to curve out to sea when it was first declared a depression. Then the Bermuda High built in. I have Norcross saying so on VHS. PBS used to air a documentary on the history of Miami and besides other hurricanes of our past, Andrew was part of the documentary. The Andrew segment begins with Norcross saying that it is expected to curve out to sea. Things changed along the way, and the rest is history.

=)

Here is the ONLY NHC discussion that even has the word recurve in it. Read for yourself.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_w ... al0492.006

Heather never said the NHC didn't say anything about a recurve, just Norcross. Some of you need to seriously lay off a little.

[Blown Away]

The real question is will Helene turn N at 50W or 55W.

or 60 or 65

NHC says N turn at 50W, Derek says maybe @55W, what makes you think 60-65W?

[cycloneye]

Are we talking about Helene here?

[Sanibel]

Helene could be a late bloomer. Look at Gordon. There could be potential out there. But it will be over water.

[Blown Away]

Are we talking about Helene here?

yes

Derek said Helene could go a little further W than NHC track, but would likely come no closer than 300 miles from islands before turing, @55W. Just wanted thoughts on why he thought 60-65W.

[Derek Ortt]

Andrew was ALWAYS forecast to turn to the west and intensify. No NHC forecast EVER had it going out to sea

[HURAKAN]

Looking much better organized!!!

[wzrgirl1]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_w ... /tropdisc/

here you can read at your leisure what andrew was forecasted to do

[sfwx]

From the NWS JAX:

LONG TERM...MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE LAST DAY UNDER INFLUENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON TUESDAY. MODELS INDICATE THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH
RETURN FLOW PRIOR TO THE FRONT...THUS LIMITING INSTABILITY SIMILAR
TO WHAT HAPPENED THIS WEEK. STAY TUNED. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS
SLOWLY UNDER NEARLY ZONAL FLOW THEN DRIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
THURSDAY.

[jusforsean]

10 - Day Forecast
Today

Mostly cloudy w/t-storms
91º/75º Friday

Mostly cloudy w/t-storms
92º/77º Saturday

Partly sunny w/t-storms
92º/76º Sunday

Partly sunny
92º/76º Monday

Partly sunny
91º/78º

Tuesday

Hazy sunshine
89º/73º Wednesday

Hazy sunshine
89º/76º Thursday

Hazy sunshine
91º/75º Friday

Mostly cloudy
89º/74º Saturday

Hazy sunshine
90º/73º

Forcast For South Florida Through Next Weekend...No COLD Front here.

You guys crack me up!! Makes the tropics fun to track!! Our Fox Met mentioned that yes, indeed we do have a cold front heading our way which will indeed cause unstable conditions (ie. more rain etc...) however it will NOT affect our temps at all, now that baffles me , cold from no cold hmmm.......

[Sanibel]

SST's and Caribbean moisture get progressively warmer as you transit west.


Rain banks came from the west today on Sanibel. Significant wind direction as far as steering currents. The normal season trade winds are from the SE.

[Epsilon_Fan]

Go, Helene, go!

[Windtalker1]

Are we talking about Helene here?

yes

Derek said Helene could go a little further W than NHC track, but would likely come no closer than 300 miles from islands before turing, @55W. Just wanted thoughts on why he thought 60-65W.

See page 17