Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

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Frank2
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#941 Postby Frank2 » Fri Sep 15, 2006 7:52 am

It's already above 15N, even though it's only a 40W - that says a lot...
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#942 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 15, 2006 7:53 am

Derek Ortt wrote:The Dvorak technique does not analyse a center. That seems to be a misconceptionof the technique

The center is analyzed by mets themselves


That's right. Dvorak analyses the shape of the storm. Sorry!!!!
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#943 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 15, 2006 7:54 am

Image

It seems to be getting its act together, what do you think Derek?
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#944 Postby sma10 » Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:09 am

Frank2 wrote:It's already above 15N, even though it's only a 40W - that says a lot...


Yea, and even though Helene was at 13.7N just 24hrs ago and is now 15N there are plenty of people who are still insisting that it's going west, it's going west!

Seriously, though, the NoGaps is getting an awful lot of love this morning!
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#945 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:09 am

NRL has it at 12:00z at 15.5n-40.9w with intensity increased to 50kts,1000 mbs.
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#946 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:11 am

cycloneye wrote:NRL has it at 12:00z at 15.5n-40.9w with intensity increased to 50kts,1000 mbs.


Where are the NHC models on the OSU site? I haven't seen them for the last few runs.
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#947 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:13 am

Thunder44 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:NRL has it at 12:00z at 15.5n-40.9w with intensity increased to 50kts,1000 mbs.


Where are the NHC models on the OSU site? I haven't seen them for the last few runs.


Good question.I haved only seen the GFDL runs but the models suite not,since yesterday morning.
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#948 Postby storms in NC » Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:27 am

Just looking at the vloop with zoom you can see that it is going more west than north now. If that is the true center.JIOM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html
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#949 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:30 am

sma10 wrote:
Frank2 wrote:It's already above 15N, even though it's only a 40W - that says a lot...


Yea, and even though Helene was at 13.7N just 24hrs ago and is now 15N there are plenty of people who are still insisting that it's going west, it's going west!

Seriously, though, the NoGaps is getting an awful lot of love this morning!


yes the Outlier is getting a lot of love this morning.
Image
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#950 Postby skysummit » Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:36 am

Each and every one of those models are on crack since she's not going NW right now like they all say.
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#951 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:38 am

SouthFloridawx wrote:
sma10 wrote:
Frank2 wrote:It's already above 15N, even though it's only a 40W - that says a lot...


Yea, and even though Helene was at 13.7N just 24hrs ago and is now 15N there are plenty of people who are still insisting that it's going west, it's going west!

Seriously, though, the NoGaps is getting an awful lot of love this morning!


yes the Outlier is getting a lot of love this morning.
Image


If the NRL position is correct it's already going north of my track. It's stronger and deeper now, so it may be feeling a weakness in the upper-level ridge to it's north now:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm6.html

I'm not suggest it's going to recurve any sooner. It may be that be that TPC estimate a bad center again this morning. Not unusual during the nightime hours.
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#952 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:39 am

I just went to the Ohio State site and I don't think we have seen how the models have been initiated since sometime yesterday. I can not get the data from SFWMD either. I wonder what's up with that?
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#953 Postby drezee » Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:40 am

The GFDN turning it W is more interesting than the NOGAPS to me...
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#954 Postby curtadams » Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:42 am

One thing about these occasional west-run outliers - they all have Helene quite weak. The last time the UKM did it it had Helene never go below 1000 mb. In that NOGAPS run, Helene is about 1005 mb towards the end. So the NOGAPS is saying that if Helene is a wussy, fizzly TS, she'll make it to N of the islands (but still at sea) before the monster front bats her out of the park- which I find believable.
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#955 Postby sma10 » Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:44 am

drezee wrote:The GFDN turning it W is more interesting than the NOGAPS to me...


Isn't the GFDN the run that is based on the NoGaps model? I think a pro-met probably can correct me on that.
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#956 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:45 am

Fish or not, Helene is looking much better today.

Image
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#957 Postby sma10 » Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:46 am

curtadams wrote:One thing about these occasional west-run outliers - they all have Helene quite weak. The last time the UKM did it it had Helene never go below 1000 mb. In that NOGAPS run, Helene is about 1005 mb towards the end. So the NOGAPS is saying that if Helene is a wussy, fizzly TS, she'll make it to N of the islands (but still at sea) before the monster front bats her out of the park- which I find believable.


That is true, Curt, but I have found that the global models do not handle central pressure in tropical entities very well.
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#958 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:47 am

SouthFloridawx,yes Helene looks much better and you will see the winds bumped at 11 up to 60-65 mph.
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#959 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:47 am

sma10 wrote:
drezee wrote:The GFDN turning it W is more interesting than the NOGAPS to me...


Isn't the GFDN the run that is based on the NoGaps model? I think a pro-met probably can correct me on that.


1.: I dont think so, because they have been disagreeing for a while now, just like all of the othe models have.

2.: Are the GFDN and the GFDL related?
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#960 Postby caneman » Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:48 am

Don't think NOGAPS is that out to lunch. Check out the 06GFS. It shows a real slow crawl West towards end of run before being ejected out. That is all NOGAPS might be showing at end of that run and then later it could be ejected out.
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