Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3
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Frank2 wrote:It's already above 15N, even though it's only a 40W - that says a lot...
Yea, and even though Helene was at 13.7N just 24hrs ago and is now 15N there are plenty of people who are still insisting that it's going west, it's going west!
Seriously, though, the NoGaps is getting an awful lot of love this morning!
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- cycloneye
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NRL has it at 12:00z at 15.5n-40.9w with intensity increased to 50kts,1000 mbs.
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- cycloneye
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Thunder44 wrote:cycloneye wrote:NRL has it at 12:00z at 15.5n-40.9w with intensity increased to 50kts,1000 mbs.
Where are the NHC models on the OSU site? I haven't seen them for the last few runs.
Good question.I haved only seen the GFDL runs but the models suite not,since yesterday morning.
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- storms in NC
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Just looking at the vloop with zoom you can see that it is going more west than north now. If that is the true center.JIOM
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html
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- SouthFloridawx
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sma10 wrote:Frank2 wrote:It's already above 15N, even though it's only a 40W - that says a lot...
Yea, and even though Helene was at 13.7N just 24hrs ago and is now 15N there are plenty of people who are still insisting that it's going west, it's going west!
Seriously, though, the NoGaps is getting an awful lot of love this morning!
yes the Outlier is getting a lot of love this morning.
![Image](http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_08.gif)
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SouthFloridawx wrote:sma10 wrote:Frank2 wrote:It's already above 15N, even though it's only a 40W - that says a lot...
Yea, and even though Helene was at 13.7N just 24hrs ago and is now 15N there are plenty of people who are still insisting that it's going west, it's going west!
Seriously, though, the NoGaps is getting an awful lot of love this morning!
yes the Outlier is getting a lot of love this morning.
If the NRL position is correct it's already going north of my track. It's stronger and deeper now, so it may be feeling a weakness in the upper-level ridge to it's north now:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm6.html
I'm not suggest it's going to recurve any sooner. It may be that be that TPC estimate a bad center again this morning. Not unusual during the nightime hours.
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- SouthFloridawx
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One thing about these occasional west-run outliers - they all have Helene quite weak. The last time the UKM did it it had Helene never go below 1000 mb. In that NOGAPS run, Helene is about 1005 mb towards the end. So the NOGAPS is saying that if Helene is a wussy, fizzly TS, she'll make it to N of the islands (but still at sea) before the monster front bats her out of the park- which I find believable.
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- SouthFloridawx
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curtadams wrote:One thing about these occasional west-run outliers - they all have Helene quite weak. The last time the UKM did it it had Helene never go below 1000 mb. In that NOGAPS run, Helene is about 1005 mb towards the end. So the NOGAPS is saying that if Helene is a wussy, fizzly TS, she'll make it to N of the islands (but still at sea) before the monster front bats her out of the park- which I find believable.
That is true, Curt, but I have found that the global models do not handle central pressure in tropical entities very well.
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- cycloneye
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SouthFloridawx,yes Helene looks much better and you will see the winds bumped at 11 up to 60-65 mph.
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- Evil Jeremy
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sma10 wrote:drezee wrote:The GFDN turning it W is more interesting than the NOGAPS to me...
Isn't the GFDN the run that is based on the NoGaps model? I think a pro-met probably can correct me on that.
1.: I dont think so, because they have been disagreeing for a while now, just like all of the othe models have.
2.: Are the GFDN and the GFDL related?
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