Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

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AtlanticWind
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#901 Postby AtlanticWind » Fri Sep 15, 2006 12:16 am

South floridawx, that trough looks awful flat I wonder if helene was below 20 degrees north if that would pick her up?
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#902 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Sep 15, 2006 12:19 am

AtlanticWind wrote:South floridawx, that trough looks awful flat I wonder if helene was below 20 degrees north if that would pick her up?


Of course that is at the 300mb level but, the basic idea is that there is going to be so much westerly flow across the atlantic that even if the trough is flat there will be no ridge to keep her going west. If there is no ridge then she'll be moving northward or toward the Pole.
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#903 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Sep 15, 2006 12:30 am

Might I also add is that the NOGAPS is showing pretty much the same type of flow @ 144 Hours as the GFS.

Image
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#904 Postby sma10 » Fri Sep 15, 2006 1:51 am

Helene's looking pretty good coming out of the eclipse
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#905 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Sep 15, 2006 1:57 am

sma10 wrote:
AtlanticWind wrote:https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_atlantic&dtg=2006091500&prod=prp&tau=144

Nogaps at 144 hours . not far off the islands.


The NoGaps has struggled badly this year and has not had very good verification numbers. We'll see if it pulls a coup.


The reason why the NOGAPS is that far west is because it has the first trough bypass it to the north. Therefore it just leaves there meandering westward, until the next larger trough comes in to pick it up.
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#906 Postby superfly » Fri Sep 15, 2006 2:16 am

Looks like it is getting well organized now with a CDO over the center.
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Helene already well south and west of 11PM plot

#907 Postby bobbisboy » Fri Sep 15, 2006 3:42 am

Helene is already well south and west of the NHC's 11 plot and I would say moving no further north than 280 if that over the last 6 hours. We'll see what they say at 5AM but that track will almost certainly shift left.
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#908 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Sep 15, 2006 3:50 am

Looks like she has developed a central core. I say 55 knots.
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#909 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Sep 15, 2006 3:56 am

If this can just say on a westly course in bomb into a cat4 over the next 24 hours.(Before it makes it pass 45 west) Then moves west-southwest through the southern islands. Heck it would almost remind me of Ivan the great.

But thats not like frances,Andrew,Floyd. Just think if that trough was not there. Heck there was a weakness for Andrew in look what happen.
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#910 Postby senorpepr » Fri Sep 15, 2006 3:57 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Looks like she has developed a central core. I say 55 knots.

What brings you to that figure? The best estimates show that Helene is unchanged... which also reflects the NHC advisory of 40KT.
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#911 Postby senorpepr » Fri Sep 15, 2006 3:59 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:If this can just say on a westly course in bomb into a cat4 over the next 24 hours


What drives you to think that this will become a category four within 24 hours. The official forecast (which sounds rather reasonable--maybe even too generous considering the dry air entrainment) only has it at 50KT. I'd be VERY surprised if it's a hurricane by 5am tomorrow.
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#912 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Sep 15, 2006 4:00 am

Nice Cdo forming over the center...With outflow out of all quads. Its pretty easy to see that it is in fact strengthing. I would not be suprize for this to start developing a banding eye over the next 24 hours.
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#913 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Sep 15, 2006 4:03 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT - Version 7.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 SEP 2006 Time : 081500 UTC
Lat : 14:57:50 N Lon : 40:01:07 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 995.2mb/ 53.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.4 3.7 3.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -60.2C Cloud Region Temp : -61.4C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.83 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

I will have to agree with cimss. Its been pretty good over all. You don't get outflow over all quads. With deep convection over the LLC. With out having to watch for a possible RIC over the next 24 hours.
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#914 Postby senorpepr » Fri Sep 15, 2006 4:04 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Nice Cdo forming over the center...With outflow out of all quads. Its pretty easy to see that it is in fact strengthing. I would not be suprize for this to start developing a banding eye over the next 24 hours.


What satellite are you looking at? The one I'm viewing has some convection, albeit weakening at this time, by the center, but definately not something I'd call "nice" or "over the center".

I think it's easy to see it is in fact hardly strengthening. I think the chances of this developing a banding eye over the next day is about the same as Gordon becoming annular--:rapsberry:
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#915 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Sep 15, 2006 4:06 am

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html


This one...I see a well stacked storm(Classic) with outflow/inflow. I said I would not be suprized if it developed quickly. Can you give me the link to your satellite that shows this to be fizzing?
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#916 Postby senorpepr » Fri Sep 15, 2006 4:07 am

That AODT is about a reliable as a '34 Ford on today's interstate system.
It statistically over-estimates. Furthermore, instead of using a computer program with a shady track record... why not do a Dvorak estimate yourself. I just did one and I get T2.5, which matches AFWA's estimate.
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#917 Postby senorpepr » Fri Sep 15, 2006 4:09 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html


This one...I see a well stacked storm(Classic) with outflow/inflow. I said I would not be suprized if it developed quickly. Can you give me the link to your satellite that shows this to be fizzing?


Go to any site with current imagery. Matter of fact... read this:

HELENE DOES NOT LOOK TOO MUCH DIFFERENT THAN IT DID SIX HOURS
AGO
...EXCEPT FOR THE DEEP CONVECTION BUBBLING IN SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. PERHAPS SOME CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY
INCREASED A LITTLE NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...BUT EVEN THAT SEEMS
TO BE ON THE DECREASE AGAIN.
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 06Z DVORAK ESTIMATES. HELENE APPEARS TO BE
INGESTING SOME DRY AIR...AND IT MIGHT TAKE A WHILE FOR INNER CORE
CONVECTION TO BECOME PERSISTENT.
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#918 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 15, 2006 4:17 am

Is the blob behind Helene part of Helene?
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#919 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Sep 15, 2006 4:18 am

I would say that 2.5 get handed out at times on tropical waves, or even systems with undefined LLC. This has a well defined LLC.

For one the convection is forming over the LLC...Which is on the northeast side of the blob of deep convection. Banding futures look to be ok to good to me. This is at least a respectable tropical storm not a grace,lee. Based on the deep convection and banding.

I would say 3.0-3.2t.
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#920 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 15, 2006 4:23 am

Image

Looks to be organizing!
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