Hurricane Isaac - Cat. 1

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Coredesat

Hurricane Isaac - Cat. 1

#1 Postby Coredesat » Wed Sep 20, 2006 1:49 am

96L.INVEST is up on the models and on the backup Navy site:

824
WHXX01 KWBC 200643
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962006) ON 20060920 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060920 0600 060920 1800 060921 0600 060921 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.5N 27.5W 9.1N 29.1W 9.8N 30.7W 10.3N 32.5W
BAMM 8.5N 27.5W 9.1N 29.2W 9.8N 30.7W 10.5N 32.3W
A98E 8.5N 27.5W 8.6N 29.6W 9.0N 31.9W 9.4N 34.2W
LBAR 8.5N 27.5W 9.1N 29.6W 9.8N 32.0W 10.3N 34.7W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 35KTS 46KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 35KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060922 0600 060923 0600 060924 0600 060925 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.9N 34.3W 12.5N 37.8W 14.1N 40.8W 14.6N 43.6W
BAMM 11.2N 33.8W 13.7N 36.8W 16.8N 39.6W 18.6N 42.3W
A98E 9.6N 36.4W 10.8N 40.4W 12.0N 44.0W 13.6N 47.4W
LBAR 10.9N 37.6W 13.6N 43.0W 16.9N 46.5W 18.2N 48.0W
SHIP 58KTS 81KTS 88KTS 88KTS
DSHP 58KTS 81KTS 88KTS 88KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.5N LONCUR = 27.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 8.5N LONM12 = 25.5W DIRM12 = 267DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 8.8N LONM24 = 23.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$


Image

EDIT: Mods, if this system develops into anything, feel free to retitle the thread accordingly. :)
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#2 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Sep 20, 2006 1:58 am

Just saw this, it's on the main site too now:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html
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#3 Postby Normandy » Wed Sep 20, 2006 2:03 am

I think this might be our first real scare, its at a pretty low lattitude
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#4 Postby Bailey1777 » Wed Sep 20, 2006 2:20 am

Not again. These long trackers(if it becomes one)burn you out. Let the disscusions begin. :D
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#5 Postby Zardoz » Wed Sep 20, 2006 3:13 am

We've been keeping an eye on these waves off Africa for a couple of weeks, in numerous threads. Hard to see why they think this one is worth an invest when that trough behind Helene is shredding everything. It looks to be dipping south damned near to the coast of South America:

Eumetsat

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rb.html

How can anything survive that?
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#6 Postby Normandy » Wed Sep 20, 2006 3:37 am

^ Trough behind Helene? What are you talking about?

Anyways, what area is the focuse for development? The one just south of the Cape Verdes or the cluster of storms near SA's lattidute?
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#7 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Sep 20, 2006 4:10 am

772
ABNT20 KNHC 200903
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED SEP 20 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS CENTERED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED
AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.


$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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#8 Postby ronjon » Wed Sep 20, 2006 4:12 am

It's the blob of convection near 8N-27W. The GFS and some of the other global models develop this system. Indeed, the SHIPs brings it up to 88 kts in 120 hrs. Soon to be Issac? Yikes, who came up with that name! :roll:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/loop-avn.html
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#9 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 20, 2006 6:12 am

Image
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#10 Postby Normandy » Wed Sep 20, 2006 6:15 am

Wow, if this doesnt make it into the Caribbean then I dont think any CV waves will with this pattern
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#11 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Sep 20, 2006 6:29 am

one has to argue with all the heat potential in the Western Atlantic and Carribean that this guy/gal will come much further west...
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#12 Postby HeeBGBz » Wed Sep 20, 2006 6:42 am

Yikes on Isaac. I was dreading that named storm. It just reminds me of the book "Isaac's Storm"
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#13 Postby Windtalker1 » Wed Sep 20, 2006 6:45 am

Maybe a threat down the road? Models show a western turn end of run. May not be a fish storm this time. It was just a matter of time before one gets too close for comfort.
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#14 Postby Patrick99 » Wed Sep 20, 2006 7:00 am

Does the high build back in for this one? The high's gotta build back in at some point.
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#15 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 20, 2006 7:11 am

WHXX04 KWBC 201131
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 96L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 20

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 8.8 27.5 270./ 9.9
6 10.5 27.9 349./17.7

STORM DISSIPATED AT 6 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

6z GFDL dissipates 96L in the next 6 hours. :)
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#16 Postby Bailey1777 » Wed Sep 20, 2006 7:16 am

Well that would save us alot of debate. We shall see.
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#17 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 20, 2006 7:18 am

In the graphic that I posted above,GFDL is the little red line in the extreme lower right.
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#18 Postby hial2 » Wed Sep 20, 2006 7:26 am

cycloneye wrote:In the graphic that I posted above,GFDL is the little red line in the extreme lower right.


Aren't Bam models more reliable at low altitudes than the GFDL?
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#19 Postby Bailey1777 » Wed Sep 20, 2006 7:26 am

Is that correct? Is this dist. drifting North?
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#20 Postby StormTracker » Wed Sep 20, 2006 7:27 am

The GFDL is going MAD!!! How can that be? Can someone explain that cause I sure don't see how that's gonna happen! :eek:
Last edited by StormTracker on Wed Sep 20, 2006 7:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
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