Tropical Depression Olivia in EPAC

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HurricaneJoe22
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#21 Postby HurricaneJoe22 » Mon Oct 09, 2006 1:11 am

my bad...thanks for the heads up
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#22 Postby P.K. » Mon Oct 09, 2006 3:05 pm

May be an upgrade here.

WHXX01 KMIA 091951
CHGE77

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP162006) ON 20061009 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061009 1800 061010 0600 061010 1800 061011 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.7N 127.8W 13.6N 128.6W 15.2N 129.1W 17.8N 128.1W
BAMM 12.7N 127.8W 13.7N 128.4W 15.2N 128.7W 17.1N 127.9W
LBAR 12.7N 127.8W 13.6N 127.8W 15.1N 127.4W 16.6N 126.5W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 40KTS 42KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 40KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061011 1800 061012 1800 061013 1800 061014 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.8N 124.8W 28.5N 113.1W 32.5N 94.0W 32.8N 61.8W
BAMM 19.1N 125.9W 24.0N 118.8W 31.5N 113.9W 36.3N 112.8W
LBAR 17.9N 124.7W 20.5N 119.7W 23.8N 113.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 39KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 39KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.7N LONCUR = 127.8W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 127.6W DIRM12 = 334DEG SPDM12 = 1KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 127.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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#23 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 09, 2006 3:13 pm

Yes P.K.,also NRL has it as TD 16-E.
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#24 Postby WmE » Mon Oct 09, 2006 3:18 pm

Here we go! Next name on the list would be Olivia.
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#25 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 09, 2006 3:32 pm

253
WTPZ41 KNHC 092029
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006
200 PM PDT MON OCT 09 2006

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN HAS
BEEN MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION IN A SPRAWLING BAND OVER THE
SYSTEM'S NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. WHILE THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB OF 35 AND 45 KT...RESPECTIVELY...APPEAR TO BE TOO
HIGH...THERE IS ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO INITIATE ADVISORIES ON A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON
THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 14Z...WHICH SHOWED A FEW RAIN-FLAGGED 35 KT
VECTORS BUT A NUMBER OF BELIEVABLE 30 KT VECTORS.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD. THE DEPRESSION IS
NEAR THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A DEEP
TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE RECURVATURE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDS THE NOGAPS AND GFDL MODELS IN SHOWING
THE DEPRESSION FOLLOWING VERY CLOSELY BEHIND TROPICAL STORM NORMAN
TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE DISSIPATES THE DEPRESSION BY 72
HOURS...BUT IT WAS RUN OFF THE MEDIUM BAM MODEL WHICH IS
CONSIDERABLY NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK...AND THEREFORE OVER
COOLER WATERS AND UNDER MUCH STRONGER SHEAR. WHILE SHEAR COULD
DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFDL GUIDANCE IN SHOWING LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/2100Z 12.8N 127.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 13.2N 128.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 13.7N 128.3W 40 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 14.5N 127.8W 40 KT
48HR VT 11/1800Z 16.0N 126.0W 40 KT
72HR VT 12/1800Z 18.0N 122.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 13/1800Z 20.5N 118.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 14/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W 35 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

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#26 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon Oct 09, 2006 3:37 pm

2 in one day, finally some activity
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#27 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 09, 2006 9:36 pm

602
WTPZ41 KNHC 100231
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006
800 PM PDT MON OCT 09 2006

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ALONG WITH A DIMINISHED
COVERAGE OF COLD CLOUD TOPS. ACCORDINGLY...DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE DROPPED. NO CHANGE IS MADE TO THE WIND
SPEED FOR THIS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...SINCE THE SHEAR IS NOT
PREDICTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO AND THE
SYSTEM IS OVER WARM WATERS...SOME SLIGHT NEAR-TERM STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTERACT WITH
INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...I.E. AN
ENVIRONMENT HOSTILE TO STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE AND IS THE SAME
AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE...DUE TO PROHIBITIVELY STRONG SHEAR...BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AS TO BE EXPECTED WITH A WEAK SYSTEM...THERE IS A LOT OF SCATTER IN
THE CENTER FIXES. MY BEST GUESS IS THAT THE CENTER IS JUST
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE INITIAL MOTION
APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY NORTHWARD...350/3. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. IT IS EXPECTED
THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A WEAK RIDGE FOR
ABOUT A DAY...AND THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOME STEERED BY THE
FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A VIGOROUS DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE NEAR THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA- BAJA CALIFORNIA BORDER. THIS FORECAST IS
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFDL MODEL TRACK...AND ALSO CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0300Z 13.3N 127.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 13.7N 127.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 14.5N 127.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 11/1200Z 15.5N 126.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 12/0000Z 16.8N 124.6W 40 KT
72HR VT 13/0000Z 19.0N 120.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 14/0000Z 21.5N 116.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 15/0000Z 24.5N 112.5W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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#28 Postby P.K. » Tue Oct 10, 2006 4:01 am

WTPZ41 KNHC 100854
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 10 2006

RECENT MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE
DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AS A BURST OF
DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER. BECAUSE OF
THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE CENTER LOCATION...THERE IS A RATHER LARGE
RANGE...30 TO 45 KT...IN THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. AN
EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS DID NOT PROVIDE ANY CONCLUSIVE INDICATION THAT
THE CYCLONE HAS STRENGTHENED. THE QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATED WINDS
AROUND 25 KT OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE IF THE STRONGER RETRIEVED WINDS IN THE CONVECTION ARE
BELIEVABLE. THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY...TO WAIT AND SEE IF THE RECENT CONVECTIVE BURST PERSISTS.

MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS...AND SO ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. THEREAFTER...
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WHICH SHOULD HALT
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND 72 HOURS...STRONG SHEAR...STABLE
AIR...AND COOLER SSTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE FAIRLY
QUICKLY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/5 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY BEING STEERED NORTHWARD AROUND A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO SOON BEGIN TURNING THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD. A SECOND
DEEP LAYER CYCLONE THAT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE DEPRESSION
NORTHEASTWARD AT AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT
THERE ARE VAST DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE CYCLONE WILL
TRAVEL. THE UKMET IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WHILE THE
GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE ON THE NORTH SIDE. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AT DAYS 3 AND 4 AND IS BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND THE GFDL
FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0900Z 14.0N 127.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 14.6N 127.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z 15.5N 126.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 11/1800Z 16.5N 125.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 12/0600Z 17.5N 123.2W 35 KT
72HR VT 13/0600Z 19.5N 119.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 14/0600Z 21.5N 115.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB
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#29 Postby P.K. » Tue Oct 10, 2006 7:58 am

TS Olivia in the models at 40kts with an estimated minimum central pressure of 1000hPa.

WHXX01 KMIA 101254
CHGE77

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA (EP162006) ON 20061010 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061010 1200 061011 0000 061011 1200 061012 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.4N 127.6W 16.6N 126.7W 19.2N 124.1W 22.3N 120.0W
BAMM 14.4N 127.6W 15.9N 126.9W 17.4N 125.1W 19.2N 122.3W
LBAR 14.4N 127.6W 16.1N 126.7W 18.1N 125.1W 19.9N 122.6W
SHIP 40KTS 44KTS 47KTS 46KTS
DSHP 40KTS 44KTS 47KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061012 1200 061013 1200 061014 1200 061015 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.3N 114.6W 33.7N 103.4W 31.7N 78.2W 32.2N 60.3W
BAMM 21.1N 118.6W 28.1N 112.1W 36.0N 107.8W 39.9N 99.2W
LBAR 22.3N 119.3W 30.2N 110.6W 36.1N 98.8W .0N .0W
SHIP 42KTS 28KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 42KTS 28KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.4N LONCUR = 127.6W DIRCUR = 5DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 13.3N LONM12 = 127.7W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 12.6N LONM24 = 127.7W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 75NM
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#30 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 10, 2006 8:18 am

:uarrow: However,as always storm2k does,we wait for the official advisory to then change the title of thread. :)
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#31 Postby P.K. » Tue Oct 10, 2006 9:37 am

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006
1500 UTC TUE OCT 10 2006

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20061010/1500Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: OLIVIA
NR: 004
PSN: N1436 W12730
MOV: N 05KT
C: 1000HPA
MAX WIND: 040KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 110000 N1518 W12654
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 045KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 110600 N1545 W12615
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 045KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 111200 N1612 W12536
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 045KT
NXT MSG: 20061010/2100Z

---------------------

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 10 2006

THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION OVER AND NORTH OF
THE CIRCULATION CENTER FOR 6 TO 9 HOURS NOW. A TRMM PASS AT 0721
UTC SUGGESTS THIS CONVECTION HAS SOME BANDING STRUCTURE...AND
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE THREE AGENCIES RANGE FROM 35 TO
45 KT. ON THIS BASIS...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A 40 KT
TROPICAL STORM. ONLY A LITTLE MORE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DUE TO
SOUTHERLY SHEAR...WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASE AFTER 24 HOURS. THIS...COUPLED WITH COOLER WATERS FROM
36-72 HOURS...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DISSIPATION BEFORE THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/5...BASED IN PART ON THE TRMM
PASS. OLIVIA IS MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE...AND SHOULD SOON BE FEELING THE EFFECTS OF A LARGE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. ALL GUIDANCE
TURNS OLIVIA SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER THAT. THE
UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AND TAKE IT SLOWLY
EASTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WHILE THE GFDL MAINTAINS A MORE
COHERENT STRUCTURE AND CONSEQUENTLY FOLLOWS A DEEPER FLOW MORE
RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS APPARENTLY WANTS TO HAVE IT BOTH
WAYS...SPLITTING OLIVIA INTO TWO VORTICITY MAXIMA...ONE OF WHICH
GOES NORTHEASTWARD AND A WEAKER LOBE THAN LINGERS TO THE SOUTH. I
AM INCLINED TO THINK THAT OLIVIA WILL FOLLOW NORMAN'S LEAD...WHICH
CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF SHEARING OFF AND SLOWING
DOWN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE CONU CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/1500Z 14.6N 127.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 15.3N 126.9W 45 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 16.2N 125.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 12/0000Z 17.0N 123.7W 40 KT
48HR VT 12/1200Z 17.7N 121.8W 35 KT
72HR VT 13/1200Z 19.0N 118.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 14/1200Z 20.0N 114.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#32 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Oct 10, 2006 9:57 am

Olivia is here!
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#33 Postby bombarderoazul » Tue Oct 10, 2006 3:21 pm

Well done, meteorologists were predicting a below average season in the EPAC, they were dead wrong :oops:
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#34 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 10, 2006 3:52 pm

913
WTPZ41 KNHC 102036
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 10 2006

CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO SOUTHERLY
SHEAR AND IS LESS BANDED THAN THIS MORNING. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING AND THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 40 KT. THE LATEST SHIPS DOES NOT SHOW MUCH
INCREASE IN SHEAR...BUT OLIVIA WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE EXISTING SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO
KILL OFF OLIVIA ONCE THESE WATERS ARE ENCOUNTERED...AND THE
FORECAST DISSIPATION IS IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT OLIVIA HAS ACCELERATED
TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A A LARGE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL
MOTION IS 040/12. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
UNTIL OLIVIA SHEARS OFF AND BECOMES A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM. WHEN
THIS HAPPENS WILL AFFECT HOW CLOSE THE CIRCULATIONS OF OLIVIA AND
NORMAN WILL GET...AND IF IT HAPPENS LATER RATHER THAN SOONER OLIVIA
COULD BE DEFLECTED SOUTHWARD BY THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF NORMAN.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TRACK AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE MEDIUM BAM.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/2100Z 15.9N 126.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 17.2N 124.9W 45 KT
24HR VT 11/1800Z 18.2N 122.8W 40 KT
36HR VT 12/0600Z 19.0N 120.6W 35 KT
48HR VT 12/1800Z 19.5N 119.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 13/1800Z 20.0N 116.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#35 Postby WindRunner » Wed Oct 11, 2006 5:33 am

A TS no more.

WTPZ41 KNHC 110859
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006
200 AM PDT WED OCT 11 2006

IT APPEARS THAT PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO TAKE
ITS TOLL ON OLIVIA. THE CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER...AND THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A FEW DEGREES OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS. THE LARGE BLOB OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH OLIVIA EARLIER TODAY HAS ALSO DIMINISHED GREATLY IN COVERAGE.
AN EARLIER 0200 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS REVEALED NO WINDS OF 35 KT OR
GREATER IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AT 06 UTC FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 45 KT...ALTHOUGH
THE DATA-T NUMBERS HAD FALLEN IN RESPONSE TO THE DETERIORATING
CONVECTIVE PATTERN. SINCE THE CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN
SINCE THEN...AND CONSIDERING THE QUIKSCAT DATA...OLIVIA IS BEING
DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION WITH 30 KT MAXIMUM WINDS. CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MARGINAL SSTS SHOULD INDUCE ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
ANTICIPATES A SLIGHTLY FASTER DECLINE THAN DOES THE GFDL...AND
INSTEAD IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. IF
THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH...THE DEPRESSION COULD
DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW FASTER THAN WE ARE INDICATING.

OLIVIA'S INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 045/09. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED
TO TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...SOUTH
OF THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF OF CALIFORNIA. OVERALL
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...ASIDE FROM
A SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE SOUTH TOWARD THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0900Z 16.9N 124.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/1800Z 17.4N 123.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 12/0600Z 18.0N 121.7W 25 KT
36HR VT 12/1800Z 18.3N 119.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 13/0600Z 18.7N 117.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 14/0600Z 19.5N 114.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/WILLIS
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#36 Postby Chacor » Wed Oct 11, 2006 6:41 am

Not much left of Olivia.

Compare, Olivia
Image

to Norman's remnant low
Image
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#37 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 11, 2006 10:34 am

342
WTPZ41 KNHC 111444
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006
800 AM PDT WED OCT 11 2006

OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS... A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS FORMED
JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF OLIVIA... THOUGH THE CENTER HAS BEEN
PARTIALLY EXPOSED FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
HAVEN'T CHANGED MUCH AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE LEFT AT 30
KT. THIS BURST OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AS DRY AIR
IN THE MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVELS IS ADVECTED NEAR THE DEPRESSION.
FURTHERMORE... VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST... MAKING SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION UNLIKELY. THUS A
SPINDOWN INTO A REMNANT LOW IS THE FAVORED SOLUTION... AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DISSIPATE
TOMORROW.

OLIVIA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND SLOWED... AND IS
ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING 065/6. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE DEPRESSION BECOMES PART OF
LARGE-SCALE WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO. THE
MODELS ARE GENERALLY INDICATING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND ITS
REMNANTS WILL MOVE MORE TO THE EAST THAN IN THE PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO OLIVIA BEING PUSHED MORE TO THE
SOUTH AROUND THE LARGER REMNANT CIRCULATION OF NORMAN. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
SITUATION AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN
DEFERENCE TO THE GFDL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/1500Z 17.0N 124.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 17.2N 123.4W 25 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 17.4N 121.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 13/0000Z 17.6N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 13/1200Z 17.8N 116.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
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Coredesat

#38 Postby Coredesat » Wed Oct 11, 2006 7:21 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t7/loop-vis.html

Appears to be pulling a Kristy. The center's no longer completely exposed.
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#39 Postby Chacor » Thu Oct 12, 2006 3:47 am

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 120802
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006
200 AM PDT THU OCT 12 2006

OLIVIA HAS MAINTAINED A VERY SMALL BUT FAIRLY INTENSE CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. BUT OTHER THAN THAT...
OLIVIA IS HAVING A BAD HAIR DAY IN TERMS OF MAINTAINING STATUS AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE
DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA IS T1.5...OR 25
KT...AND THAT IS THE INTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 075/08...OR JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS MOTION. THE SHALLOW TO MEDIUM DEPTH CIRCULATION OF OLIVIA
IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE EASTWARD...OR EVEN
A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE EAST... FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. HOWEVER...IF
SOME CONVECTION CAN BE MAINTAINED DURING THAT TIME...A MOTION
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE EAST IS POSSIBLE DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
TUGGING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AS PERIODIC BURSTS OF CONVECTION
OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS STRAIGHTFORWARD THAN THE
TRACK FORECAST. OLIVIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER INCREASINGLY WARMER
WATER...AND INTO A REGION OF DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND
INCREASING MID-LEVEL HUMIDITY ASSOCIATED WITH A REGION OF
DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GENERATED BY THE ILL-DEFINED
REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM NORMAN. IF OLIVIA CAN
SURVIVE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MOVE INTO
THIS MORE FAVORABLE REGIME...THEN SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
BY 36 HOURS AND BEYOND. AN ADDITIONAL FORECAST POSITION AT 48 HOURS
WAS ADDED DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE INTENSITY IS BEING
MAINTAINED AT 25 KT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0900Z 17.6N 121.9W 25 KT
12HR VT 12/1800Z 17.7N 120.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 13/0600Z 17.7N 118.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 13/1800Z 17.6N 116.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 14/0600Z 17.7N 114.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

:lol: :lol:
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#40 Postby Chacor » Thu Oct 12, 2006 9:46 am

WTPZ41 KNHC 121440
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006
800 AM PDT THU OCT 12 2006

CONVECTION HAS BEEN DIMINISHING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH ONLY
ONE SMALL CELL REMAINING. OLIVIA BARELY MEETS THE CRITERIA FOR A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND AS SOON AS CONVECTION DISSIPATES... SO WILL
THE DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 25 KT IN
AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS. A SLOW SPINDOWN OF THE
VORTEX IS LIKELY DUE TO STRONG SHEAR AND DRY AIR ALOFT NEAR THE
SYSTEM.

OLIVIA HAS BEEN MOVING 080/8 BUT IS LIKELY TO START MOVING DUE EAST
SOON. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE CYCLONE EASTWARD. ALMOST ALL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A MOTION SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST AS THE REMNANT LOW
OF OLIVIA BECOME PART OF A LARGER DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF MEXICO. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS A LITTLE
NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1500Z 17.7N 121.1W 25 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 17.7N 119.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 13/1200Z 17.6N 117.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 14/0000Z 17.5N 115.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
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