Tropical Depression Sergio=Last Advisory Written

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cycloneye
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#101 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 19, 2006 2:45 pm

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO (EP212006) ON 20061119 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061119 1800 061120 0600 061120 1800 061121 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.2N 105.8W 16.0N 104.8W 17.0N 103.8W 18.1N 103.0W
BAMM 15.2N 105.8W 15.4N 106.4W 15.6N 107.0W 15.7N 107.8W
LBAR 15.2N 105.8W 15.4N 105.5W 16.2N 105.1W 16.9N 104.7W
SHIP 35KTS 30KTS 28KTS 28KTS
DSHP 35KTS 30KTS 28KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061121 1800 061122 1800 061123 1800 061124 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.9N 101.9W 18.1N 99.4W 16.7N 97.6W 15.0N 95.0W
BAMM 16.0N 108.9W 16.6N 111.1W 16.5N 113.8W 16.1N 117.1W
LBAR 17.4N 104.1W 18.6N 102.8W 20.0N 102.4W 22.8N 101.2W
SHIP 28KTS 28KTS 27KTS 19KTS
DSHP 28KTS 28KTS 27KTS 19KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.2N LONCUR = 105.8W DIRCUR = 245DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 15.6N LONM12 = 105.1W DIRM12 = 248DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 15.3N LONM24 = 104.4W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Sergio is breathing on respiratory support.
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#102 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 19, 2006 3:33 pm

769
WTPZ41 KNHC 192029
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006
100 PM PST SUN NOV 19 2006

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SERGIO AS A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL
SWIRL WITH A BURST OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS
ARE T2.5 FROM TAFB AND AFWA AND T2.0 FROM SAB. AS A RESULT OF THE
NEW CONVECTIVE BURST...SERGIO WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY CONSTANT AND
WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IS ANTICIPATED IN 48 HOURS OR
SO...CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS AND FSSE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 255/3. SERGIO IS LOCATED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE EASTERN EDGE OF A LOW- TO MID-RIDGE WHICH HAS PUSHED
THE CYCLONE SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT MOST OF DAY. AS A
RESULT OF THIS SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION...THE CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA OF
SLIGHTLY LESS SHEAR WHICH PROBABLY CONTRIBUTED TO THE REDEVELOPMENT
OF THE CONVECTION. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD AND THE
CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPINGED BY SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE SERGIO TO BE STEERED ON A SLOW WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE GFDL AS WELL AS WITH THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2100Z 15.1N 105.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 15.1N 106.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 15.2N 106.9W 30 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 15.4N 107.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 21/1800Z 15.5N 109.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
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#103 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 19, 2006 9:38 pm

994
WTPZ41 KNHC 200231
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006
700 PM PST SUN NOV 19 2006

DEEP CONVECTION COMES AND GOES IN SPORADIC DISORGANIZED BURSTS...BUT
RECENTLY THESE BURSTS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING MAINLY WELL TO THE EAST
OF THE CENTER. THERE IS STILL A WELL-DEFINED...MOSTLY EXPOSED...
SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SERGIO. GIVEN THAT DEEP
CONVECTION HAS NOT PERSISTED NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS IT IS ASSUMED THE CYCLONE HAS SPUN DOWN TO BELOW TROPICAL
STORM INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT
OF STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
OUTPUT FROM THE OPERATIONAL SHIPS MODEL SHOWS 30-35 KT OF 850-200
MB VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING SERGIO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.
THIS IS PROBABLY AN OVERESTIMATE OF THE SHEAR THAT WILL DIRECTLY
IMPACT THE SYSTEM...SINCE IT IS AN AVERAGE OVER A LARGE AREA THAT
INCLUDES EVEN STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WINDS TO THE NORTH OF SERGIO.
HOWEVER EVEN THE EXPERIMENTAL SHIPS OUTPUT...WHICH IS BASED ON THE
SHEAR AVERAGED OVER A SMALLER AREA OVER THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...SHOWS MORE THAN 25 KT OF SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
THIS ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED
WEAKENING...AND SERGIO COULD DISSIPATE SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED BY
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO
THE FLOW SOUTH OF A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA.
THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND THE WEAKENING TROPICAL
CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANT IS PREDICTED TO TURN TO THE WEST AND
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST....BUT NOT AS FAST AS
INDICATED BY THE MEDIUM TO SHALLOW BAM GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0300Z 15.0N 106.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 14.9N 106.8W 30 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 15.0N 107.7W 25 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 15.3N 108.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 22/0000Z 15.6N 110.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Downgraded to TD.
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#104 Postby Chacor » Mon Nov 20, 2006 9:26 am

Looks much better today and it seems like convection has reignited near the centre.

890
WHXX01 KMIA 201304
CHGE77

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO (EP212006) ON 20061120 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061120 1200 061121 0000 061121 1200 061122 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.8N 106.8W 16.1N 106.7W 17.4N 106.8W 18.7N 106.6W
BAMM 14.8N 106.8W 15.4N 108.0W 15.9N 109.2W 16.4N 110.5W
LBAR 14.8N 106.8W 15.0N 107.0W 15.7N 107.1W 16.2N 107.2W
SHIP 35KTS 36KTS 38KTS 38KTS
DSHP 35KTS 36KTS 38KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061122 1200 061123 1200 061124 1200 061125 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.7N 105.3W 19.2N 101.0W 16.7N 97.6W 14.7N 97.1W
BAMM 16.9N 111.6W 17.2N 113.6W 17.2N 116.1W 17.0N 118.3W
LBAR 16.5N 107.3W 17.6N 107.8W 18.5N 108.1W 19.7N 107.7W
SHIP 36KTS 30KTS 22KTS 0KTS
DSHP 36KTS 30KTS 22KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.8N LONCUR = 106.8W DIRCUR = 250DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 15.0N LONM12 = 106.2W DIRM12 = 239DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 15.4N LONM24 = 105.4W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
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#105 Postby Chacor » Mon Nov 20, 2006 9:45 am

Still a TD at 7 am.
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#106 Postby Chacor » Mon Nov 20, 2006 9:50 am

WTPZ41 KNHC 201447
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006
700 AM PST MON NOV 20 2006

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PULSATING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF SERGIO. THE PROXIMITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
TO THE CYCLONE'S CENTER YIELDED 1200 UTC DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH
TAFB AND AFWA OF 45 KT AND 35 KT FROM SAB. SINCE THEN...THE
CONVECTION HAS PULLED FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CENTER ONCE AGAIN.
EARLY VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES A DISORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN AND
PROVIDES LITTLE ADDITIONAL ASSISTANCE IN DISCERNING THE CENTER. MY
FIRST INCLINATION WAS TO BRING SERGIO BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM...
HOWEVER DUE TO THE WEAKENING CONVECTION AND LACK OF AN ORGANIZED
CENTER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30 KT. SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR AROUND 30 TO 35 KT IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE AND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE BUT BE SOMEWHAT MORE RELAXED. EVEN IF THE
SHEAR DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AS INDICATED BY THE EXPERIMENTAL
SHIPS MODEL...WHICH REDUCES THE AREA THAT COMPUTES THE SHEAR...IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR THE CIRCULATION TO RE-CONSOLIDATE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 255/3. SERGIO IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND TO THE
NORTHEAST OF A LOW-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE EASTWARD AND THE LOW-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...WEST OF SERGIO...SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES THAT SERGIO WILL REMAIN A SHALLOW
SYSTEM AND TAKES THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION UNTIL
DISSIPATION OCCURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF
THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT
SLOWER.

FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER HAS BECOME EVEN
FURTHER DETACHED FROM THE CONVECTION THAN INDICATED...BUT I WILL
WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT ADVISORY TO DETERMINE IF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...
SUCH AS DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM SOONER THAN INDICATED...ARE
WARRANTED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/1500Z 14.9N 107.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 15.1N 107.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 15.4N 109.0W 30 KT
36HR VT 22/0000Z 15.8N 110.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 22/1200Z 16.0N 112.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
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#107 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 20, 2006 4:58 pm

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006
100 PM PST MON NOV 20 2006

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE SERGIO HAS DETERIORATED OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. EVEN THOUGH DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 35 KT
FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM SAB...THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE A RESULT
OF CONVERGENCE LINES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. IN
ADDITION...SERGIO NO LONGER HAS ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR A WELL-
DEFINED CENTER...WITH A VORTICITY MAXIMUM LOCATED AT THE EASTERN
END OF A TROUGH OR SHEAR AXIS.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON SERGIO UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS CAN
STILL BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
REMNANTS OF SERGIO PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO
HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

WITH RESPECT TO STATISTICS...SERGIO IS THE LONGEST RUNNING TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR NOVEMBER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/2100Z 14.9N 108.0W 25 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 15.0N 108.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 21/1800Z 15.3N 110.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 22/0600Z 15.5N 111.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

WITH RESPECT TO STATISTICS...SERGIO IS THE LONGEST RUNNING TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR NOVEMBER.


Very interesting stat and record that Sergio made.
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#108 Postby lester » Mon Nov 20, 2006 7:11 pm

bye Sergio...see you in six years
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#109 Postby Chacor » Tue Nov 21, 2006 9:05 am

692
WHXX01 KMIA 211317
CHGE77

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE SERGIO (EP212006) ON 20061121 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061121 1200 061122 0000 061122 1200 061123 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.3N 111.3W 16.9N 111.3W 18.5N 110.4W 19.7N 108.4W
BAMM 15.3N 111.3W 15.9N 112.6W 16.4N 113.7W 16.8N 114.8W
LBAR 15.3N 111.3W 16.1N 112.6W 17.1N 113.8W 17.6N 114.6W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 25KTS 24KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 25KTS 24KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061123 1200 061124 1200 061125 1200 061126 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.1N 106.1W 18.6N 102.2W 16.7N 101.5W 17.5N 102.1W
BAMM 16.9N 115.8W 16.7N 118.7W 17.0N 121.4W 17.6N 121.9W
LBAR 19.2N 115.7W 20.7N 116.5W 22.2N 114.5W 24.6N 109.7W
SHIP 24KTS 19KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 24KTS 19KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.3N LONCUR = 111.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 15.0N LONM12 = 109.0W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 14.8N LONM24 = 106.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 165NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
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#110 Postby Cyclenall » Sun Dec 03, 2006 1:49 am

The report for Hurricane Sergio is out and it still has it's peak strength at 95 knots :( . I was wondering what this was based off and it turns out as usual:

NHC Hurricane Sergio Report wrote:The peak intensity of this hurricane is based on a blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.


All the data on the peak strength on the tropical cyclone is going by a computer program estimate. Shouldn't a human look at the cyclone as well instead of just going by Dvorak estimates? I still believe the hurricane briefly became a major hurricane or around 100 knots. Just 5 knots more and it could have been added to the list of major hurricanes of the 2006 eastern Pacific hurricane season. They should review that pin-hole eye more closely but I don't know if they have already done that. Pin-hole eyes such as the one seen in Sergio are known to yield major hurricanes (category 3,4, and 5). The eye was also quite clear for a limited amount of time but slowly started to get less clear as the day went on.
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#111 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Dec 03, 2006 1:24 pm

why should an untested method be used over a scientifically tested one?
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#112 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Dec 03, 2006 4:29 pm

Just because it has a pinhole eye does not mean that the hurricane reached Cat 3 status...and with the eye becoming less clear just after only a few hours, chances are it didn't make that major status. The NHC doesnt add knots just because they want a storm on a list, they use all scientific data available to them and average it out. In this case, the data showed Sergio only made it to 95 knots, therefore it stands at 95 knots.
EDIT: Looking back at the sat photos, the pinhole eye was visible for 6 hours. Obviously it was not strengthening for that entire 6 hours, as something must of happend in there to cause the eye to disappear. What happend? I dont know, I'm not a Pro Met, and I doubt even they really know. Whatever it was, disturbed Sergio and completely wiped him out. Maybe shear that no one saw, or a puff of dry air. Its hard to say, but whatever it was started the weakening trend.
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#113 Postby Cyclenall » Sun Dec 03, 2006 11:45 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:why should an untested method be used over a scientifically tested one?

The Dvorak estimates are not infallible. If your talking about the untested method being a human taking a look at the tropical cyclone as well, then that's silly. If your talking about the untested method being all tropical cyclones having a pin-hole must be a major hurricane, then yes, that is very unscientific and should not be used when determining pin-hole eye cyclone strength. It could be researched more though.

brunota2003 wrote:Just because it has a pinhole eye does not mean that the hurricane reached Cat 3 status.

Yep, but most of the time a pin-hole eye as clear as it was in Sergio for a very brief amount of time (maybe 2 hours) means a major. I didn't say when ever there was a pin-hole eye there is a 100% chance it's a category 3 hurricane. Clouded up pin-hole eyes should be around category 2 and Sergio certainly had a clouded eye after having a clear one.

and with the eye becoming less clear just after only a few hours, chances are it didn't make that major status.

When the eye was becoming less clear, it was weakening and weakening to a category 2 or 1 hurricane. That's most likely how it went. I'm talking when it was clear for a few hours.

EDIT: Looking back at the sat photos, the pinhole eye was visible for 6 hours. Obviously it was not strengthening for that entire 6 hours, as something must of happened in there to cause the eye to disappear. What happened? I dont know, I'm not a Pro Met, and I doubt even they really know. Whatever it was, disturbed Sergio and completely wiped him out. Maybe shear that no one saw, or a puff of dry air. Its hard to say, but whatever it was started the weakening trend.

I was looking at many images over those 6 hours and I could see how the eye formed and how fast it got clouded over. It looked really good.

Let's make it clear that Sergio was NOT a major hurricane for those 6 hours. There was a pin-hole eye for 6 hours BUT some of those hours had a fading eye which meant weakening and in my opinion, a category 2 or 1 hurricane. My main point is for a brief period of time, Sergio could have easily became a 100 knot hurricane. Since there is a chance that it became a category 3 hurricane, that would change the stats on the 2006 eastern Pacific final numbers in terms of number of major hurricanes. I'm not saying they should automatically bump up Sergio's strength to 100 knots just for the heck of it (or to bump up the final season total of major hurricanes), that's stupid and unscientific.
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