Typhoon (Durian) in WPAC - landfall in Philippines

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Typhoon (Durian) in WPAC - landfall in Philippines

#1 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Sat Nov 25, 2006 3:39 am

Hi everyone.

Invest 92W in the Wpac is looking interesting at the moment. JMA are listing it as low pressure area at 6N 149E. They forecast it to become a TD within 48 hours. Along with that the latest ECMWF run has this becoming a typhoon and hitting the Phillipines around the same latitude as Manila. JTWC are listing this as FAIR at the moment.

I'll be keeping a close eye on this one.
Last edited by Typhoon Hunter on Thu Nov 30, 2006 4:51 am, edited 5 times in total.
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#2 Postby Chacor » Sat Nov 25, 2006 4:23 am

JMA now has it as a tropical depression.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 10N 147E WNW 15 KT.
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#3 Postby Chacor » Sat Nov 25, 2006 4:24 am

Shear doesn't seem to be favourable though, if it moves WNW...

Here's a Google Earth overlay of the 0833Z AVN of the WPac + 09Z CIMSS shear map showing the shear in 92W's path.

Also, interestingly, what's that blob of convection east of Malaysia?

Image
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#4 Postby TheEuropean » Sat Nov 25, 2006 4:20 pm

At NRL site it is now T.D. 24W. I think it has fair to good chances to become the next severe typhoon to hit the philippines.
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#5 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 25, 2006 4:53 pm

SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W WARNING NR 001
WTPN31 PGTW 252100
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 8.6N 145.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.6N 145.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 9.2N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 9.8N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 10.3N 137.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 10.7N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 12.1N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 8.7N 144.9E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN


Forecast Track Graphic

It looks like the Philliphines are in trouble once again.
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#6 Postby P.K. » Sat Nov 25, 2006 5:07 pm

No change on earlier.

WARNING AND SUMMARY 251800.
WARNING VALID 261800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 980 HPA
AT 56N 172E BERING SEA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 1600 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND
700 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
EASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 34N
137E 30N 148E 26N 146E 30N 135E 34N 137E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 31N 123E EAST 15 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 10N 146E WNW SLOWLY.
HIGH 1026 HPA AT 36N 148E ESE 20 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 27N 116E TO 29N 120E 31N 123E 31N 127E 31N 131E
28N 139E 27N 143E.
COLD FRONT FROM 39N 180E TO 35N 178E 31N 174E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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#7 Postby Chacor » Sat Nov 25, 2006 8:19 pm

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260000UTC 10.0N 144.0E POOR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 270000UTC 11.0N 139.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT

Next name is Durian, submitted by Thailand.
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#8 Postby Chacor » Sat Nov 25, 2006 8:22 pm

WTPQ31 PGUM 260116
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
11 AM GUAM LST SUN NOV 26 2006

..TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W MOVING TOWARDS YAP STATE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR YAP...NGULU...ULITHI
AND FAIS IN YAP STATE.


A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE OCCURRING OR ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 10 AM GUAM LST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 144.4
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 465 MILES EAST OF YAP
475 MILES EAST OF NGULU
330 MILES EAST OF ULITHI
265 MILES EAST OF FAIS
295 MILES SOUTH OF GUAM
420 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
FORECAST TRACK WOULD TAKE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W VERY NEAR ULITHI
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND ABOUT 40 MILES NORTH OF YAP LATE MONDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AS EARLY AS
THIS AFTERNOON.


REPEATING THE 10 AM POSITION...9.2 DEGREES NORTH AND 144.4 DEGREES
EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 35 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
AT 5 PM GUAM LST.

$$

ZIOBRO
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#9 Postby TheEuropean » Sat Nov 25, 2006 9:26 pm

JTWC with a 35 kts storm now, becoming a supertyphoon and another nightmare for the philippines...?


WTPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/

TROPICAL STORM 24W WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 9.2N 144.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.2N 144.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 10.0N 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 10.8N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 11.7N 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 12.5N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 14.0N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 15.0N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 15.7N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 9.4N 143.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST
OF YAP (AND 240 NM SOUTH OF GUAM), HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED QUICKLY OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. A 252324Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SEMICIRCLES AND
BETTER ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.//
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#10 Postby Chacor » Sat Nov 25, 2006 10:01 pm

Shear has really backed off ahead of the storm.

Image
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#11 Postby Chacor » Sat Nov 25, 2006 10:23 pm

JMA prognostic:

WTPQ30 RJTD 260000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 10.0N 144.0E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 260000 UTC IS POOR.
TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DECELERATE.
TD WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 12 HOURS.
TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD FEATURES OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAVE BECOME DISTINCT AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

JTWC prognostic:

WDPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 260000Z NOV TO 010000Z DEC 2006.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST
OF YAP (AND 240 NM SOUTH OF GUAM), HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED QUICKLY OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. A 252324Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SEMICIRCLES AND
BETTER ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
B. TS 24W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL (850-700 MB) RIDGE POSITIONED NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM. THE 25/12Z 850/700 MB ANALYSES DEPICT THE HIGH CENTER AT
14N 135E WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
VIETNAM. THEREFORE, TS 24W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. AS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS TO TYPHOON
STRENGTH NEAR TAU 24, IT WILL TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE MID-LEVEL (500 MB) SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE 500 MB RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 96 BUT WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN NORTHWEST OF LUZON BY TAU 120 DUE TO AN APPROACH-
ING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, WHICH WERE VERY LIMITED, AND ANALYSIS OF THE NOGAPS,
NCEP GFS, UKMO, AND JGSM MODEL FIELDS.
C. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE SYSTEM AND ANOTHER STRONGER ANTICYCLONE NORTHEAST, WHICH ARE
PRODUCING STRONG DIFFLUENT, EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. THIS IS ENHANCING OUTFLOW AS EVIDENCED ON THE LATEST
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT REVEALS VERY GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW (FURTHER ENHANCED BY STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES) AND
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE
THEREFORE TS 24W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A GREATER THAN CLIMAT-
OLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
D. FORECAST WIND RADII CRITERIA ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN
AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.
E. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 24W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD LUZON AND WILL INTENSIFY AT A GREATER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE DUE TO EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT
MODEL DATA.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//
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#12 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Nov 25, 2006 10:40 pm

I just looked at the forecast...135 knot hurricane (155 MPH) hitting the Philippines? that is scary...hope it doesnt strengthen to that...:eek:
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#13 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Sat Nov 25, 2006 11:08 pm

Holy cow...that is one hell of a JTWC forecast. Will eagerly await the JMA forecast track when Durian becomes a TS. It's very early days but here's a worrying quote from typhoon2000.com

*All interests in the Samar, Bicol and Quezon Provinces should closely monitor the progress of this potential typhoon...The Philippine local disaster units must be on alert status beginning tomorrow, Monday as this system might be a dangerous Typhoon similar to Super Typhoons ANGELA (ROSING) [Nov 3, 1995] & NINA (SISANG) [Nov 26, 1987].
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#14 Postby Aslkahuna » Sun Nov 26, 2006 12:19 am

Supers have hit the Philippines this late in the year before. The track is admittedly unusual for the end of November. However, by staying below 15N most of the track the storm might pull off that track. GFS brings it more along a track similar to Cimaron-along the Bicol and across Manila while the NOGAPS track is more in line with the JTWC track. There is an H5 High over northern Luzon and generally nothing digging down to recurve the storm at this point in time.

Steve
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#15 Postby Chacor » Sun Nov 26, 2006 1:59 am

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0621 DURIAN (0621) UPGRADED FROM TD

ANALYSIS
PSTN 260600UTC 10.1N 142.7E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 60NM

FORECAST
24HF 270600UTC 11.2N 138.8E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
48HF 280600UTC 12.0N 133.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
72HF 290600UTC 13.1N 128.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT

TS0621 DURIAN.
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#16 Postby wxmann_91 » Sun Nov 26, 2006 2:56 am

Hey all,

Here are my thoughts for this system.

It is very rare that JT forecasts a greater than climatological rate of intensification. In fact, I think that anytime they mention 'intensify at a climo rate' or above is implying that they're thinking RI. But, as demonstrated by Saomai, Bebinca, Yami, among others, it just so happens (lol) that JT is horrible at predicting RI, whenever they predict it, it doesn't happen, when they don't, the storm bombs. I call it the JTWC curse. It's just weird. So question is, will this one fall into the curse again?

There are several things going good with this storm:

1) Climo. The Philippine Sea is very favorable for some real boomers (see Angela, 1995, Zeb, 1998.) November is still Super Season in the WPAC.

2) Environment is reasonably moist around this system. The favorable phase of the MJO is migrating toward the WPAC which should allow the monsoonal trough to reappear.

3) TUTT to the west. This enhances outflow.

4) UL anticyclone on top of the system. Nuff said.

5) UL divergence is given, but LL convergence is essential to sustain convection. CIMSS analysis shows this. IMO, this is key mainly for determining what disturbances develop into TC's. But it doesn't hurt for mature ones as well.


But there are also several bad things:

1) Convection is weakening. The diurnal maximum should relieve that. Still, the organization sucks and I'm not even sure if there's a good strong LLC.

2) Time. Believe it or not, big systems are created easily from small blobs of convection here. BUT, big systems take time to organize. This one's fairly big and bulky. The ridge at H5 should push it along rapidly, similar to Cimaron and Chebi. Could be there in as little as 4-5 days. In addition, the fast speed is not favorable for strengthening in itself.
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#17 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Sun Nov 26, 2006 4:39 am

JTWC warning 3 still goes for a big hit on the Phillipines with 130kt landfall.

Given what the last three typhoons have done in the area, the JTWC forecast and that JMA are going for steady intensification I'm on standby to travel to the Phillipines to try and intercept this.

Gonna have a few nights of disturbed sleep that's for sure!
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#18 Postby P.K. » Sun Nov 26, 2006 7:52 am

40kts.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0621 DURIAN (0621)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261200UTC 10.1N 142.0E FAIR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 271200UTC 11.3N 137.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
48HF 281200UTC 12.0N 132.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
72HF 291200UTC 13.2N 127.8E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT =
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P.K.
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#19 Postby P.K. » Sun Nov 26, 2006 8:12 am

And the track forecast image...

Image
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#20 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Sun Nov 26, 2006 10:37 am

JTWC still going for 130kt landfall at warning 4. Here's there text warning:

WTPN31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (DURIAN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 10.1N 141.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1N 141.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 10.8N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 11.4N 136.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 11.9N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 12.4N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 13.6N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 14.7N 123.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.2N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
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