Typhoon (Durian) in WPAC - landfall in Philippines

[Chacor]

WTPN31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 24W (DURIAN) WARNING NR 012
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 24W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 12.2N 131.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 131.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 12.9N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 13.8N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 14.7N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 15.7N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.6N 123.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 131.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 24W (DURIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z
IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND
291500Z.//

NNNN

[Chacor]

WDPN31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 281200Z NOV TO 031200Z DEC 2006.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 24W (DURIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
B. TY 24W CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD THE WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED NORTHWEST OF GUAM. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 36, AFTER WHICH
A SERIES OF APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW A STAIRSTEP
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. CURRENT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS HIGHLY
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL ASIA AND THE WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
POLEWARD OF TY 24W, AND THE APPROACHING TROUGHS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTED TO PERTURB THIS FLOW ENOUGH TO CAPTURE TY 24W INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE PATTERN. HOWEVER, A GROUPING OF DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
GFS, TCLAPS, AFWA MM5 AND WBAR DO DEPICT RECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLY
FLOW OCCURING BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48, AND THIS ALTERNATE SCENARIO
CANNOT YET BE COMPLETELY DISMISSED.
C. TY 24W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH
TAU 48 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW AND A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ENHANCED BY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE. AFTER TAU 48 INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO HINDER FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 280941Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OBSERVED IN RECENT WATER VAPOR AND MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR
AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
E. TY 24W IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN
THE EXTENDED TAUS BETWEEN THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE AND A DEVELOPING
ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST. AS THE STORM WEAKENS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION
AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, LOW TO MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE AN INCREASINGLY PROMINENT EFFECT ON STORM MOTION,
DRIVING A TURN TOWARD A MORE WESTWARD TRACK ACROSS LUZON.
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//

[P.K.]

Just upgraded, straight to 70kts.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0621 DURIAN (0621) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281800UTC 12.6N 130.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 291800UTC 13.5N 125.7E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
48HF 301800UTC 13.1N 120.9E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
72HF 011800UTC 13.1N 117.1E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT =

[P.K.]

[rainstorm]

a south shift in track?

[cycloneye]

Track now thru the middle of Luzon.

[Aslkahuna]

Landfall now forecast for Dingalan Bay which woud place Baler, which is just to the north in the right hand semicircle. Baler is about the last easily reachable place in that section of coastline on Luzon. Dingalan Bay is also reachable from Cabanatuan City. Another place that would see some action would be Virac on Catanduanes Island-in fact, Virac, like Baler is one of the typhoon Capitals of the Philippines. Virac would be reached by air from Manila. Signal No.1 already up fo Catanduanes.

Steve

[P.K.]

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0621 DURIAN (0621)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290000UTC 13.0N 128.6E GOOD
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 300000UTC 13.8N 124.8E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
48HF 010000UTC 14.1N 120.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
72HF 020000UTC 14.4N 116.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT =

[brunota2003]

Go look at the sat image!!! man that thing is beautiful...the eye looks to be about 20 miles wide (guess on my part)...and looks like it is about to ramp up...feel sorry for those poor people

[HURAKAN]

Durian, becoming a beast!!!!

[Aslkahuna]

Latest JT track forecast has the eye going right over Virac.

Steve

[wxmann_91]

Argh, I hate these types of situations where the track determines intensity. Any northerly jog, the storm stays over open water and could be quite an intense storm, but any southerly jog, the storm hits land, it's over. Quite literally; mountains beat up storms and the northern SCS isn't any more favorable this time of year.

[senorpepr]

Well kids... I haven't been paying attention to the world of tropics because I've been busy with immigration paperwork.

I took a moment tonight to look... and I see a typhoon is headed toward Manila.

Here's the bad news for me personally... I'm going on vacation tomorrow. My flight is scheduled to land in Manila at 30/1445Z for an overnight layover. My flight is scheduled to take off for Negros Island at 01/0330Z.

JTWC's forecast is a little scary for me... looks like at least 50kt winds... if I make it to Manila. I "should" be able to land, but I'm not sure about my departure the next day.

PAGASA's forecast is a little different. I may have problems getting into Manila, but the storm should be gone by my departure time.

Some models paint a nasty situation for me... some paint a really descent scenario. My personal thoughts choke me up. I've already called my fiancée to alert her of my potential tardiness. I'll try to take photos if possible. We'll see what happens. Once I get to my destination, I'll try my best to post on here a quick update. However, it may not be until my expected arrival back in America on the 12th.

Anyway... keep me in your thoughts...

[wxmann_91]

Well kids... I haven't been paying attention to the world of tropics because I've been busy with immigration paperwork.

I took a moment tonight to look... and I see a typhoon is headed toward Manila.

Here's the bad news for me personally... I'm going on vacation tomorrow. My flight is scheduled to land in Manila at 30/1445Z for an overnight layover. My flight is scheduled to take off for Negros Island at 01/0330Z.

JTWC's forecast is a little scary for me... looks like at least 50kt winds... if I make it to Manila. I "should" be able to land, but I'm not sure about my departure the next day.

PAGASA's forecast is a little different. I may have problems getting into Manila, but the storm should be gone by my departure time.

Some models paint a nasty situation for me... some paint a really descent scenario. My personal thoughts choke me up. I've already called my fiancée to alert her of my potential tardiness. I'll try to take photos if possible. We'll see what happens. Once I get to my destination, I'll try my best to post on here a quick update. However, it may not be until my expected arrival back in America on the 12th.

Anyway... keep me in your thoughts...

Wow Mike. Good luck. I hope it veers north.

A poleward outflow channel has finally opened which is bringing this RI cycle. If either a) it can slow down (extremely unlikely despite that forecasts from JT, JMA, and PAGASA have been saying it would for several days now, don't see it starting) or b) it jogs northward enough to stay over water a few extra hours, I see a pretty powerful typhoon shaping up.

[Aslkahuna]

Public Storm Signal Number 3 has been raised for Catanduanes Island.

Steve

[wxmann_91]

Just wondering, where's Typhoon Hunter? Is he already there? I hope he capture some good footage.

[Typhoon Hunter]

I'm here....in Shanghai. I pulled out about 30 minutes before leaving for the airport yesterday morning due to model uncertainty and the big variation in forecasts by the different agencies.
Bad decision...oh well. Geoff Mackley is already there and details can be found at his website http://www.rambocam.com

[wxmann_91]

I'm here....in Shanghai. I pulled out about 30 minutes before leaving for the airport yesterday morning due to model uncertainty and the big variation in forecasts by the different agencies.
Bad decision...oh well. Geoff Mackley is already there and details can be found at his website http://www.rambocam.com

Ah, oh well.

Have you ever chased in northern Luzon before? Steve said it was a pretty dangerous place.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Never been to Phillipines before, I've heard that the south is the most dangerous place. I'm in contact with Geoff Mackley now on msn. He's in a car en route to Naga city/Daet area near the east coast. Will post more updates as I get them!

James.

[Chacor]

001
TPPN10 PGTW 290608

A. TYPHOON 24W (DURIAN)

B. 29/0530Z

C. 13.1N/5

D. 127.3E/3

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/6.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: D1.5/06HRS (29/0530Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI LLCC

07A/PBO SMALL EYE/ANMTN. 14NM OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
RING YIELDS A DT OF 7.0. PT EQUALS 6.5. DBO PT.
UNREPRESENTATIVE MET EQUALS 5.5. BROKE CONSTRAINTS FOR
INTENSITY DUE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER PAST 06
HOURS.

VIAULT