Franklin Advisories

[x-y-no]

I've been looking and looking, and I can't escape the impression that their postition is way too far north.

I see the circulation just off the NE coast of Eleuthra moving slowly west.

I'd make it 25.4 or 25.5 N

[caplan1]

What are the actual odds that this thing will turn around and hit the Orlando area?

[cycloneye]

295
WTNT41 KNHC 220308
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005

THE LAST REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SHORTLY BEFORE 00Z
INDICATED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINED 1009 MB... AND MAXIMUM
1000 FT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AS STRONG AS 57 KT WERE MEASURED WITHIN
A CONVECTIVE BURST RIGHT NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS WOULD
NORMALLY CORRESPOND TO SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 45 KT... BUT SINCE
THE PRESSURE WAS RELATIVELY HIGH AND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN REMAINS
QUITE DISORGANIZED... WITH DVORAK T NUMBERS AT 2.0 AND 2.5... THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT. RECON WILL ONCE AGAIN
INVESTIGATE FRANKLIN ON FRIDAY MORNING.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/11. FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST WITHIN A RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT
IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... AND BE
WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS TO THE SOUTH OF A
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A BUILDING MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECAST THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO PROVIDE ENOUGH IMPETUS
TOWARD THE EAST TO RECURVE FRANKLIN TOWARD THE OPEN ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER... AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THE TROUGH WILL BYPASS
FRANKLIN AND ALLOW THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. RIDGE TO HALT ITS EXODUS
OUT TO SEA AND PERHAPS EVEN EVENTUALLY STEER IT BACK TO THE WEST.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE SCENARIOS AND
IS A LITTLE FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FRANKLIN IS LOCATED BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS WHICH IS IMPARTING SOME WESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER... THE
SHEAR AXIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN... WHICH COULD ALLOW FRANKLIN TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ALONG THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK... THE TROPICAL STORM WOULD REMAIN OVER
27-28C SSTS EVEN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND PERHAPS BE
IMPACTED BY MODERATE NORTHERLY SHEAR. INTENSIFICATION TO A
HURRICANE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IF FRANKLIN MOVES MORE QUICKLY OUT
TO SEA... THIS WOULD BE UNLIKELY... BUT IF IT BECOMES TRAPPED SOUTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... THE
ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

FRANKLIN IS THE EARLIEST SIXTH TROPICAL STORM ON RECORD IN THE
ATLANTIC BASIN.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0300Z 26.1N 76.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 27.2N 77.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 23/0000Z 28.5N 77.4W 50 KT
36HR VT 23/1200Z 29.5N 77.1W 55 KT
48HR VT 24/0000Z 30.0N 76.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 25/0000Z 30.5N 75.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 26/0000Z 31.0N 74.5W 60 KT

[Brent]

Looks like they have no clue either...

[Hurricanehink]

No more loop?

[Agua]

I see the circulation just off the NE coast of Eleuthra moving slowly west.

I'd make it 25.4 or 25.5 N

Same.

[jpigott]

I've been looking and looking, and I can't escape the impression that their postition is way too far north.

I see the circulation just off the NE coast of Eleuthra moving slowly west.

I'd make it 25.4 or 25.5 N

that's exactly what i see, i think they have the center too far north and east

[air360]

i think ....if it was possible for heads to explode from confusion, frustration, and just down right tiredness...that every single one of us would be headless by the end of this season...shoot...by the end of july...

**thinking of a cartoon head explosion....not that real thing..thats just...wrong*

[Hurricaneman]

Im lost with this system

[curtinnc]

here we go again...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Tropical Storm Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 3a


Statement as of 2:00 am EDT on July 22, 2005



...Center of Franklin near great abaco in the northwestern
Bahamas...

a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the northwestern Bahamas
for Eleuthera... New Providence... the Berry Islands... the
Abacos... and Grand Bahama Island.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 2 am EDT...0600z...the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 26.5 north... longitude 76.9 west or near
Great Abaco Island in the northwestern Bahamas. This is also about
105 miles... 170 km... north-northeast of Nassau in the northwestern
Bahamas.

Franklin is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph ...19 km/hr...
and this motion is expected to continue overnight...followed by a
gradual turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph... 75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Franklin is a small system... with tropical storm force winds
extending outward up to 40 miles... 65 km... mainly to the
northeast from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb...29.80 inches.

Franklin could produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches over the
northern Bahamas during the next 24 hours.

Repeating the 2 am EDT position...26.5 N... 76.9 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 45 mph. Minimum central pressure...1009 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Beven


$$

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

.4 north/.6 west from 11pm to 2am...That is close to west-northwest. The system is starting to get oreganized by latest IR satellite. Convection is starting to develop over the LLC.

5pm edt 25.3/75.4
8pm edt 25.8/76.0
11pm edt 26.1/76.3
2am edt 26.5/76.9

Over the last 9 hours it has moved 1.2 north/1.5 west...That is not a northwest....

So between 5 to 8pm it was .5/.6
Between 8 to 11pm .3/.3
Between 11 to 2am .4/.6

Using this data...
5am 26.9/77.5
8am 27.3/78.1
11am 27.7/78.7
2pm 28.1/79.3
5pm 28.5/79.9

That is just using the current overall.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

22/0545 UTC 25.8N 76.8W T2.5/2.5 FRANKLIN

[Coredesat]

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005

...CENTER OF FRANKLIN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS GREAT ABACO ISLAND
IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NEW PROVIDENCE AND THE
BERRY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS FOR ELEUTHERA... THE ABACOS... AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST OR OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 95
MILES... 150 KM...EAST OF FREEPORT ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.

FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE
CENTER OF FRANKLIN NORTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FRANKLIN REMAINS A SMALL STORM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

FRANKLIN MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...26.7 N... 77.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Coredesat]

Graphic:



Looks like they're no longer calling for that loop.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Tropical Storm Franklin Forecast/Advisory Number 4


Statement as of 09:00Z on July 22, 2005



at 5 am EDT...0900 UTC...the government of the Bahamas has
discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for New Providence and the
Berry Islands.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the northwestern
Bahamas for Eleuthera... the Abacos... and Grand Bahama Island.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm center located near 26.7n 77.3w at 22/0900z
position accurate within 25 nm

present movement toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 10 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1009 mb
Max sustained winds 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt.
34 kt....... 35ne 20se 0sw 0nw.
12 ft seas.. 60ne 60se 0sw 0nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 26.7n 77.3w at 22/0900z
at 22/0600z center was located near 26.4n 76.9w

forecast valid 22/1800z 27.6n 77.7w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt... 35ne 25se 15sw 25nw.

Forecast valid 23/0600z 29.0n 77.6w
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 20ne 0se 0sw 0nw.
34 kt... 35ne 35se 20sw 30nw.

Forecast valid 23/1800z 29.9n 76.8w
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 20ne 20se 20sw 20nw.
34 kt... 45ne 45se 35sw 45nw.

Forecast valid 24/0600z 30.5n 75.5w
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 20ne 20se 20sw 20nw.
34 kt... 55ne 55se 55sw 55nw.

Forecast valid 25/0600z 31.5n 73.0w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 25ne 25se 25sw 25nw.
34 kt... 65ne 65se 65sw 65nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 26/0600z 32.5n 69.0w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.

Outlook valid 27/0600z 34.0n 64.0w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 26.7n 77.3w

next advisory at 22/1500z

forecaster Beven

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005

WHILE THE CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE COOLING AS THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM
APPROACHES...FRANKLIN HAS A SOMEWHAT RAGGED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING. THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS POORLY
ORGANIZED...WITH THE STRONGEST CLUSTER EAST OF THE CENTER. SURFACE
REPORTS FROM GREAT ABACO HAVE NOT YET SHOWN THE TIGHT CENTER
REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 40 KT...WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES. A NEW
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SHOULD REACH FRANKLIN AROUND 12Z.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305-310 AT 10 KT. FRANKLIN IS HEADING FOR A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF FLORIDA AS A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
RESPOND TO THIS PATTERN BY RECURVING FRANKLIN TO THE NORTHEAST AND
ACCELERATING IT OUT TO SEA. THIS INCLUDES BOTH THE GFS AND
UKMET...WHICH WERE CALLING FOR THE STORM TO STALL IN EARLIER RUNS.
HOWEVER...THE BAMM AND BAMD STILL CALL FOR FRANKLIN TO TURN
WESTWARD AFTER 36 HR...WHILE THE NHC98 CALLS FOR A 5-DAY LOOP NEAR
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THESE SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE IF FRANKLIN
MISSES CONNECTING WITH THE ONCOMING TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...CALLLING FOR FRANKLIN TO
RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD AT A SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED THAN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT AT A SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED
THEN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

FRANKLIN IS CURRENTLY LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR
AXIS...WITH WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WEST OF THE AXIS TRYING TO PUSH
THE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTER AND PRODUCE SHEAR. THIS SHOULD AT LEAST
SLOW INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM. IN THE LONGER TERM...HOW
FAST FRANKLIN MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WILL DETERMINE HOW
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE FOR STRENGTHENING. A FASTER MOTION WOULD
PLACE THE STORM EAST OF THE ONCOMING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH
WOULD ALLOW MORE STRENGTHENING. A SLOWER MOTION WOULD ALLOW THE
TROUGH TO RUN OVER THE STORM AND EXPOSE IT TO NORTHERLY SHEAR. THE
GFDL...WHICH NOW RACES THE STORM OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...NEVER
STRENGTHENS IT ABOVE 60 KT...AND THE OTHER INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES
NOT STRENGTHEN IT MUCH ABOVE 65 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFDL
AND SHIPS MODELS.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0900Z 26.7N 77.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 22/1800Z 27.6N 77.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 23/0600Z 29.0N 77.6W 50 KT
36HR VT 23/1800Z 29.9N 76.8W 55 KT
48HR VT 24/0600Z 30.5N 75.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 25/0600Z 31.5N 73.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 26/0600Z 32.5N 69.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 27/0600Z 34.0N 64.0W 60 KT


$$

[senorpepr]

Looks like the models are still battling it out.

[P.K.]

lol - I'm happy for it to be sent this way.

[DAVE440]

Ch6 News Lonnie Quinn Met seems pretty confident its not
comin this way. Says there's a trough sitting over Fl that's going
to keep it away. Also says the Wave South of Us is interacting
with Franklin causing the tops to be sheared a bit and prevent further
strengthening as long as the 2 are interacting.

From listening to the way he's telling it....Franklins gonna move away and never return. Sounds pretty confident. I wonder if he has the lotto numbers for this week...