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Forecaster Colby

#201 Postby Forecaster Colby » Sat Nov 19, 2005 10:38 am

What the heck is in the SE atlantic?

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mike815
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#202 Postby mike815 » Sat Nov 19, 2005 10:50 am

didnt look at the map lately whoa that shear is crazy bad.
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MiamiensisWx

#203 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sat Nov 19, 2005 11:06 am

Look at the sharp boundary of convection on the eastern side...
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#204 Postby mike815 » Sat Nov 19, 2005 11:08 am

hmmm....
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#205 Postby wxman57 » Sat Nov 19, 2005 11:15 am

Here's a little better resolution image. I identify the center near 16.5N/85.5W, a good bit SE of the NHC's 9am position, but they did say that newer data indicated a center farther sotheast. Convection is moving toward 010 to 020 degrees (N-NNE) and separating from the center more. Doesn't look like a TS.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gamma9.gif">
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#206 Postby mike815 » Sat Nov 19, 2005 11:16 am

maybe. it does look that way.
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#207 Postby Forecaster Colby » Sat Nov 19, 2005 11:16 am

Yeah, that's dead.
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#208 Postby Air Force Met » Sat Nov 19, 2005 12:26 pm

Forecaster Colby wrote:Yeah, that's dead.


Yep...it's SE of the NHC position and it's also stationary according to the vis loop. This this is going to die a slow painful shearing death.

Florida will get some showers from it. Maybe.
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#209 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 19, 2005 12:28 pm

I think that we are going to get more showers from the cold front than from Gamma. :D
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#210 Postby Forecaster Colby » Sat Nov 19, 2005 12:30 pm

Yep. Recon found 46kt FL winds, so methinks it was stronger last night and has been weakening this morning.
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#211 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 19, 2005 12:32 pm

WHXX04 KWBC 191727
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM GAMMA 27L

INITIAL TIME 12Z NOV 19

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.7 85.8 330./ 4.1
6 16.6 85.9 240./ 1.3
12 16.7 85.9 315./ .8
18 16.9 86.3 301./ 4.1
24 17.2 86.2 11./ 3.2
30 17.8 86.0 20./ 6.4
36 18.5 85.8 17./ 7.4
42 18.8 85.7 21./ 3.1
48 19.7 85.2 27./ 9.8
54 20.6 84.0 53./15.1
60 21.4 82.2 68./18.6
66 22.0 80.3 71./18.0
72 22.5 78.2 76./20.0
78 23.5 75.8 67./24.2
84 25.1 72.9 62./30.7
90 26.7 70.0 62./30.7
96 28.7 67.2 54./31.5
102 30.6 64.2 58./32.4
108 32.5 61.4 56./30.3
114 34.2 59.7 45./22.6
120 35.9 58.5 35./19.4
126 37.7 57.8 21./18.8


12z GFDL moves Gamma NE well south from S Florida.
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#212 Postby mike815 » Sat Nov 19, 2005 12:47 pm

Yeah going to move threw the straits.
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#213 Postby wxman57 » Sat Nov 19, 2005 12:50 pm

The center is exposed and quite easy to see now. Looks to be near 16.2N/85.3W. I don't see much movement, maybe a slight NE drift. Convection is moving farther away from the center now. Certainly winds are only 10-15 kts around the center, but there could be some 30-40 mph winds in those squalls 100 or so miles to the north. The threat to south Florida continues to diminish. I doubt it'll even be noticed when it passes to the south.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gamma10.gif">
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#214 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 19, 2005 12:56 pm

57 noon CST advisorie confirms what you haved being saying about Gamma disorganized.
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#215 Postby wxman57 » Sat Nov 19, 2005 1:07 pm

Ah, just saw it. Looks like they're 0.1 degree too far east. ;-) It's a real stretch to call this a TS. A small pocket of 40-45 mph wind in a squall over 100 miles from the center is all it has. Most winds around Gamma are 10-20 kts. Definitely looking to be a non-event for Florida. But it's keeping me from driving to Mississippi tomorrow to paint my mother's house.
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#216 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Nov 19, 2005 1:13 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Forecaster Colby wrote:Yeah, that's dead.


Yep...it's SE of the NHC position and it's also stationary according to the vis loop. This this is going to die a slow painful shearing death.

Florida will get some showers from it. Maybe.


I think it will be quick. :D It won't even be a TD by tomorrow morning.
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#217 Postby StormSkeptic » Sat Nov 19, 2005 1:20 pm

The surface obs comfirm this. The low is ESE of Roatan as evidenced by the NE and NNE winds there - with little change in direction this morning so not moving north much if at all. Latest Satellite images seem to show a slow East drift.

http://63.245.92.231/Current/Current_custom.htm
Last edited by StormSkeptic on Sat Nov 19, 2005 1:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#218 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 19, 2005 1:22 pm

I am going to be bold and say that this will be downgraded by tonight or even later this afternoon.
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#219 Postby mike815 » Sat Nov 19, 2005 1:32 pm

I think it could but it might hang on.
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#220 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sat Nov 19, 2005 1:55 pm

HURAKAN wrote:I think that we are going to get more showers from the cold front than from Gamma. :D


Don't expect our showery weather to end very quickly, however, in south Florida - even after Gamma and the supposed front.
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