TD 27,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Damar91
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 551
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:06 pm
Location: Coral Springs, FL

#441 Postby Damar91 » Thu Nov 17, 2005 10:08 pm

Being that they are so close together, isn't it kind of unusual that they are both developing?
0 likes   

User avatar
mike815
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1460
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 8:21 am
Location: palm bay fl

#442 Postby mike815 » Thu Nov 17, 2005 10:19 pm

Good question i dont know why there not upgradeing either.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22771
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

#443 Postby wxman57 » Thu Nov 17, 2005 10:25 pm

Damar91 wrote:Being that they are so close together, isn't it kind of unusual that they are both developing?


They aren't both developing. Invest 93L is moving inland into Nicaragua and the LLC is slowly dissipating.

As for why they're not upgrading former TD 27, it consists of a tropical wave without a closed circulation. Recon confirmed that a few hours ago. Tropical waves can contain tropical storm-force winds. But without a close circulation, they're not classified as tropical storms.

I think that what's left of TD 27 will form a strong frontal low in the NW Caribbean over the next few days then move across Cuba and just off the east U.S. coast as a cold-core storm system attached to that front. Could be a big wind maker from the Mid Atlantic coast to New England. Heavy rain on the coast and snow in the mountains.
0 likes   

StormFury

#444 Postby StormFury » Thu Nov 17, 2005 10:31 pm

It is not moving to Nicaragua. You even said that it will probably head NE towards Cuba. Besides, when an area of convection persists for this long in an area that is climatologically favorable for development, it is hard to argue against development. And, the SHIPS and GFDL models are not dissipating this system any longer. Hmmm, maybe they are wrong now because they hint at development. If they dissipated the system, maybe then only would you would agree with them.
0 likes   

User avatar
mike815
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1460
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 8:21 am
Location: palm bay fl

#445 Postby mike815 » Thu Nov 17, 2005 10:38 pm

Take a look at the 10:30 Discussion may have a TS soon.
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8345
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

#446 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Nov 17, 2005 11:34 pm

Looking pretty good tonight...

What do you think?


Image
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8345
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

#447 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Nov 17, 2005 11:39 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
mike815
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1460
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 8:21 am
Location: palm bay fl

#448 Postby mike815 » Thu Nov 17, 2005 11:40 pm

Its looking really really good. May skeep to TS.
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8345
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

#449 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Nov 17, 2005 11:40 pm

D@#$ you SFWMD .... D@#$ you!!!!

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
mike815
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1460
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 8:21 am
Location: palm bay fl

#450 Postby mike815 » Thu Nov 17, 2005 11:42 pm

looks like it may impact south FL with rain at least.
0 likes   

User avatar
mike815
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1460
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 8:21 am
Location: palm bay fl

#451 Postby mike815 » Thu Nov 17, 2005 11:42 pm

looks like it may impact south FL with rain at least.
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8345
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

#452 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Nov 17, 2005 11:42 pm

891

WTNT80 EGRR 171758



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 17.11.2005



TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 83.3W



ATCF IDENTIFIER :



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 17.11.2005 12.2N 83.3W WEAK

00UTC 18.11.2005 13.6N 87.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 18.11.2005 12.7N 87.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 19.11.2005 12.5N 87.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 19.11.2005 12.8N 92.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 20.11.2005 13.5N 90.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 20.11.2005 13.6N 90.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 21.11.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8345
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

#453 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Nov 18, 2005 12:05 am

I think they will upgrade by morning...

not an official forcast
0 likes   

User avatar
mike815
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1460
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 8:21 am
Location: palm bay fl

#454 Postby mike815 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 12:18 am

Yeah i totally agree I think it will be GAMMA im going all out.
0 likes   

User avatar
mike815
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1460
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 8:21 am
Location: palm bay fl

#455 Postby mike815 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 12:41 am

There is just a huge blow up of storms late tonight and concentrated from the looks of it whoa :eek:
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23651
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#456 Postby gatorcane » Fri Nov 18, 2005 1:14 am

South Florida again Folks....

sorry to say this... :eek:
0 likes   

User avatar
danman
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 29
Joined: Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:18 pm
Location: maryland

#457 Postby danman » Fri Nov 18, 2005 1:46 am

:eek:
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23651
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#458 Postby gatorcane » Fri Nov 18, 2005 1:57 am

I'll double that

:eek: :eek:
0 likes   

User avatar
mike815
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1460
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 8:21 am
Location: palm bay fl

#459 Postby mike815 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 1:58 am

maybe it may clip south fl who knows. i would be a bit concerned also.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23651
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#460 Postby gatorcane » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:01 am

honestly I think many think it's over considering it's almost Thanksgiving.

When Gamma is announced tomorrow with a projected path over S. Florida they will think otherwise...
0 likes   


Return to “2005”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest