TD 27,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread
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- wxman57
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Damar91 wrote:Being that they are so close together, isn't it kind of unusual that they are both developing?
They aren't both developing. Invest 93L is moving inland into Nicaragua and the LLC is slowly dissipating.
As for why they're not upgrading former TD 27, it consists of a tropical wave without a closed circulation. Recon confirmed that a few hours ago. Tropical waves can contain tropical storm-force winds. But without a close circulation, they're not classified as tropical storms.
I think that what's left of TD 27 will form a strong frontal low in the NW Caribbean over the next few days then move across Cuba and just off the east U.S. coast as a cold-core storm system attached to that front. Could be a big wind maker from the Mid Atlantic coast to New England. Heavy rain on the coast and snow in the mountains.
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It is not moving to Nicaragua. You even said that it will probably head NE towards Cuba. Besides, when an area of convection persists for this long in an area that is climatologically favorable for development, it is hard to argue against development. And, the SHIPS and GFDL models are not dissipating this system any longer. Hmmm, maybe they are wrong now because they hint at development. If they dissipated the system, maybe then only would you would agree with them.
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891
WTNT80 EGRR 171758
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 17.11.2005
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 83.3W
ATCF IDENTIFIER :
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.11.2005 12.2N 83.3W WEAK
00UTC 18.11.2005 13.6N 87.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.11.2005 12.7N 87.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 19.11.2005 12.5N 87.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.11.2005 12.8N 92.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.11.2005 13.5N 90.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.11.2005 13.6N 90.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.11.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
WTNT80 EGRR 171758
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 17.11.2005
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 83.3W
ATCF IDENTIFIER :
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.11.2005 12.2N 83.3W WEAK
00UTC 18.11.2005 13.6N 87.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.11.2005 12.7N 87.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 19.11.2005 12.5N 87.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.11.2005 12.8N 92.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.11.2005 13.5N 90.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.11.2005 13.6N 90.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.11.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
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- SouthFloridawx
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