TD 27,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Damar91 · #441 Postby **Damar91** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 10:08 pm

Being that they are so close together, isn't it kind of unusual that they are both developing?

mike815 · #442 Postby **mike815** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 10:19 pm

Good question i dont know why there not upgradeing either.

#443 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 10:25 pm

Damar91 wrote:Being that they are so close together, isn't it kind of unusual that they are both developing?

They aren't both developing. Invest 93L is moving inland into Nicaragua and the LLC is slowly dissipating.

As for why they're not upgrading former TD 27, it consists of a tropical wave without a closed circulation. Recon confirmed that a few hours ago. Tropical waves can contain tropical storm-force winds. But without a close circulation, they're not classified as tropical storms.

I think that what's left of TD 27 will form a strong frontal low in the NW Caribbean over the next few days then move across Cuba and just off the east U.S. coast as a cold-core storm system attached to that front. Could be a big wind maker from the Mid Atlantic coast to New England. Heavy rain on the coast and snow in the mountains.

StormFury · #444 Postby **StormFury** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 10:31 pm

It is not moving to Nicaragua. You even said that it will probably head NE towards Cuba. Besides, when an area of convection persists for this long in an area that is climatologically favorable for development, it is hard to argue against development. And, the SHIPS and GFDL models are not dissipating this system any longer. Hmmm, maybe they are wrong now because they hint at development. If they dissipated the system, maybe then only would you would agree with them.

mike815 · #445 Postby **mike815** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 10:38 pm

Take a look at the 10:30 Discussion may have a TS soon.

#446 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 11:34 pm

Looking pretty good tonight...

What do you think?

#447 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 11:39 pm

mike815 · #448 Postby **mike815** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 11:40 pm

Its looking really really good. May skeep to TS.

#449 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 11:40 pm

D@#$ you SFWMD .... D@#$ you!!!!

mike815 · #450 Postby **mike815** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 11:42 pm

looks like it may impact south FL with rain at least.

mike815 · #451 Postby **mike815** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 11:42 pm

looks like it may impact south FL with rain at least.

#452 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 11:42 pm

891

WTNT80 EGRR 171758

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 17.11.2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 83.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER :

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 17.11.2005 12.2N 83.3W WEAK

00UTC 18.11.2005 13.6N 87.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 18.11.2005 12.7N 87.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 19.11.2005 12.5N 87.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 19.11.2005 12.8N 92.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 20.11.2005 13.5N 90.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 20.11.2005 13.6N 90.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 21.11.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

#453 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 12:05 am

I think they will upgrade by morning...

not an official forcast

mike815 · #454 Postby **mike815** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 12:18 am

Yeah i totally agree I think it will be GAMMA im going all out.

mike815 · #455 Postby **mike815** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 12:41 am

There is just a huge blow up of storms late tonight and concentrated from the looks of it whoa :eek:

#456 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 1:14 am

South Florida again Folks....

sorry to say this... :eek:

danman · #457 Postby **danman** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 1:46 am

#458 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 1:57 am

I'll double that

:eek:

mike815 · #459 Postby **mike815** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 1:58 am

maybe it may clip south fl who knows. i would be a bit concerned also.

#460 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:01 am

honestly I think many think it's over considering it's almost Thanksgiving.

When Gamma is announced tomorrow with a projected path over S. Florida they will think otherwise...

TD 27,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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