Dennis Advisorys

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timeflow
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#161 Postby timeflow » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:24 am

Thanks. That makes a lot of sense, and I won't forget it, hehe.
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djtil
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#162 Postby djtil » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:33 am

It would not be at all surprising to see this strengthen to maximum winds of 150-160 mph with all the oceanic heat that's in the Gulf of Mexico at this time.


assuming it somehow was on its way to peaking at this in the next several hours it would be unusual to maintain that peak for more than a few hours.....we are still 20 hours from landfall....there is still hope that it peaks in 6 hours and then drops off.......like Ivan, Opal, etc...
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#163 Postby Wnghs2007 » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:39 am

So what happens if this makes its left turn thats supposed to happen after landfall a little early and it heads for New Orleans?

NIGHTMARE SCENARIO. Some models do show via water vapor that the ULL Low is sinking south and the flow is starting to turn out of the SE. Hope it doesnt happen but some models do have it...

God Speed wherever this goes. My prayers are with them and may they come out of this unscaved. :cry:
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#164 Postby djtil » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:41 am

no "left turn" is forecast....pretty much a straight nw to nnw forecast from now to memphis
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#165 Postby Sanibel » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:45 am

13 increasing to 14mph forward speed could be a sign of being picked up more by the ridge.

The ridge is probably curved on its periphery, meaning a possible minor tweak right before shore IF the ridge is shaped that way and not pushing...
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#166 Postby mtm4319 » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:05 am

:( Where's the 1am position estimate?
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HurricaneJoe22
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#167 Postby HurricaneJoe22 » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:17 am

looks to be headed for a landfall between Mobile and Pensacola if it stays on it's course
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#168 Postby Stratusxpeye » Sun Jul 10, 2005 2:06 am

145 MPH Winds 3AM Adv. Should be posted soon. Lower MB Pressure than before cuba.
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#169 Postby PurdueWx80 » Sun Jul 10, 2005 2:07 am

934 mb...145 mph!!!!!!!!!!! :eek:

Statement as of 2:00 am CDT on July 10, 2005

...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Dennis with 145 mph winds...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for portions of the northern
and northeastern Gulf Coast from the Steinhatchee river westward to
the mouth of the Pearl River.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the Florida West
Coast from east of the Steinhatchee river southward to Bonita
Beach...and for the lower Florida Keys west of Seven Mile Bridge. A
Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the southeastern
Louisiana coast west of the mouth of the Pearl River to Grand
Isle...including metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Ponchartrain.

A hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning means that hurricane or
tropical storm conditions...respectively...are expected within the
warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane
Warning area.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 2 am CDT...0700z...the center of Hurricane Dennis was located
near latitude 27.4 north...longitude 85.9 west or about 195 miles
south of Panama City Florida and about 275 miles southeast of
Biloxi Mississippi.

Dennis is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph. A gradual turn
toward the north-northwest is expected today. This motion will
bring the center of Dennis across the northern Gulf Coast later
today.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are now near 145 mph...with
higher gusts. Dennis is a category four hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson scale. Some fluctuations in strength are likely
before landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230
miles. Hurricane force winds associated with Dennis may occur as
far as 150 to 175 miles inland along the track of the hurricane.

An Air Force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum
central pressure of 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 14 to 17 feet above normal tide levels...
accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible
near and to the east of where the center of Dennis crosses the
northern Gulf Coast on Sunday. A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet
is possible along the southwestern coast of Florida this morning.

Dennis is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 8
inches from the Florida Panhandle...southern Alabama...and southern
Mississippi northwestward into northern Mississippi...with isolated
maximum amounts of 12 inches possible near where Dennis makes
landfall on the Gulf Coast. Additional rainfall accumulations of 2
to 4 inches are possible over the Florida West Coast...with 1 to 3
inches possible over the remainder of the Florida Peninsula.
Isolated tornadoes will be possible this morning over portions of
north-central and northern Florida...and the Florida Panhandle.

Repeating the 2 am CDT position...27.4 N... 85.9 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
4 am CDT.
:eek:
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#170 Postby thunderstruck » Sun Jul 10, 2005 2:09 am

You have got to be kidding me!
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wayoutfront

#171 Postby wayoutfront » Sun Jul 10, 2005 2:18 am

Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.
:eek:
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#172 Postby yoda » Sun Jul 10, 2005 3:39 am

Hurricane Dennis Forecast/Advisory Number 24


Statement as of 09:00Z on July 10, 2005



a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for portions of the
northeastern Gulf Coast from the Steinhatchee river westward to the
mouth of the Pearl River.

At 4 am CDT...0900z...the Tropical Storm Warning is extended
westward along the northern Gulf Coast to east of Morgan City
Louisiana...and the Tropical Storm Warning for the lower Florida
Keys is cancelled.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect west of the mouth of the Pearl
River to east of Morgan City Louisiana.....Including metropolitan
New Orleans and Lake Ponchartrain. A Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect along the Florida West Coast from east of the Steinhatchee
river southward to Bonita Beach.

A hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning means that hurricane or
tropical storm conditions...respectively...are expected within the
warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane
Warning area.

Hurricane center located near 27.8n 86.1w at 10/0900z
position accurate within 15 nm

present movement toward the north-northwest or 330 degrees at 13 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 932 mb
eye diameter 10 nm
Max sustained winds 125 kt with gusts to 155 kt.
64 kt....... 35ne 25se 15sw 25nw.
50 kt.......120ne 75se 30sw 60nw.
34 kt.......150ne 200se 80sw 150nw.
12 ft seas..175ne 200se 80sw 150nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 27.8n 86.1w at 10/0900z
at 10/0600z center was located near 27.2n 85.8w

forecast valid 10/1800z 29.6n 87.4w
Max wind 125 kt...gusts 155 kt.
64 kt... 45ne 35se 25sw 30nw.
50 kt...120ne 85se 40sw 60nw.
34 kt...150ne 200se 80sw 150nw.

Forecast valid 11/0600z 32.0n 89.0w...inland
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
64 kt... 20ne 20se 20sw 20nw.
50 kt... 50ne 50se 50sw 50nw.
34 kt... 75ne 75se 75sw 75nw.

Forecast valid 11/1800z 34.5n 90.0w...inland
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 30ne 30se 30sw 30nw.

Forecast valid 12/0600z 36.5n 90.0w...inland
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Forecast valid 13/0600z 38.0n 88.5w...inland
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 14/0600z 38.5n 86.5w...remnant low
Max wind 20 kt...gusts 25 kt.

Outlook valid 15/0600z 38.5n 84.5w...remnant low
Max wind 20 kt...gusts 25 kt.
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rtd2
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NOW 931MB

#173 Postby rtd2 » Sun Jul 10, 2005 5:31 am

YEP

ERC?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT2.shtml?

000
URNT12 KNHC 101015
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/09:58:20Z
B. 28 deg 00 min N
086 deg 11 min W
C. 700 mb 2509 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 037 deg 115 kt
G. 309 deg 005 nm
H. 931 mb
I. 13 C/ 3056 m
J. 20 C/ 3044 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C9
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 1604A DENNIS OB 12
MAX FL WIND 115 KT NW QUAD 09:52:20
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#174 Postby Thunder44 » Sun Jul 10, 2005 5:59 am

Hurricane Dennis Intermediate Advisory Number 24a


Statement as of 6:00 am CDT on July 10, 2005



...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Dennis bearing down on the northern
Gulf of Mexico coast...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for portions of the
northeastern Gulf Coast from the Steinhatchee river westward to the
mouth of the Pearl River.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect west of the mouth of the Pearl
River to east of Morgan City Louisiana...including metropolitan
New Orleans and Lake Ponchartrain. A Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect along the Florida West Coast from east of the Steinhatchee
river southward to Bonita Beach.

A hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning means that hurricane or
tropical storm conditions...respectively...are expected within the
warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane
Warning area.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 6 am CDT...1100z...the center of Hurricane Dennis was located
near latitude 28.2 north... longitude 86.2 west or about 165 miles
south-southeast of Pensacola Florida and about 205 miles southeast
of Pascagoula Mississippi.

Dennis is moving toward the north-northwest near 15 mph...and this
motion is expected to continue today. On this track the center of
the hurricane will cross the northern Gulf of Mexico coast later
today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph...230 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Dennis is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Some fluctuations in strength are likely prior to landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 230 miles from the center. Hurricane force winds associated with
Dennis may occur as far as 150 to 175 miles inland along the track
of the hurricane.

An Air Force hurricane hunter plane reported a minimum central
pressure of 931 mb...27.49 inches.
Because the maximum winds are located a very short distance from the
center...the expected storm surge values have been revised.
Storm surge flooding of 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels...
accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible
near and just to the east of where the center of Dennis crosses the
northern Gulf Coast later today. A storm surge of 4 to 6 feet is
likely elswhere in the Hurricane Warning area to the east of the
center.

Dennis is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to
10 inches from the central Florida Panhandle into southern Alabama
and eastern Mississippi. Isolated maximum rainfall amounts to near
15 inches are possible near where Dennis makes landfall on the Gulf
Coast.

Isolated tornadoes will be possible today over the Florida
Panhandle...southwestern Georgia and southern Alabama.

Repeating the 6 am CDT position...28.2 N... 86.2 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 15 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...145 mph. Minimum central pressure... 931 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 10 am
CDT.
Forecaster Pasch

$$
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