Dennis Advisorys

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wxwatcher91
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#101 Postby wxwatcher91 » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:45 pm

whoa... Dennis stayed the same... not what I expected by the looks of the satellite... I wonder if it has passed the eddy yet that was being talked about...
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#102 Postby mahicks » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:47 pm

mtm4319 wrote:30.6, 87.9 is near Daphne... looks like the forecast was moved slightly west.


Thats my mother and father and law!!! :eek: :eek: :eek:
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#103 Postby senorpepr » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:48 pm

jaysonx wrote:AH, I was always under the assumption that they occured approx. every 12 hours?


It's more like 24-30 hours.
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#104 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:49 pm

Image
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#105 Postby Normandy » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:55 pm

This is the strongest looking cat3 storm I have ever seen. Its hard for me to believe the winds are still 125 mph.
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#106 Postby senorpepr » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:56 pm

Normandy wrote:This is the strongest looking cat3 storm I have ever seen. Its hard for me to believe the winds are still 125 mph.


Well, recon hasn't been in the NE quad since 8pm EDT.
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#107 Postby Brent » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:56 pm

Poor Mobile. :cry:
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#108 Postby patsmsg » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:58 pm

wxwatcher91 wrote:whoa... Dennis stayed the same... not what I expected by the looks of the satellite... I wonder if it has passed the eddy yet that was being talked about...


Sounds like good news that it did not intensify more. And you're probably right about Dennis exiting the column of warmer water. That may level out the intensification to landfall.
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#109 Postby Normandy » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:01 pm

patsmsg wrote:
wxwatcher91 wrote:whoa... Dennis stayed the same... not what I expected by the looks of the satellite... I wonder if it has passed the eddy yet that was being talked about...


Sounds like good news that it did not intensify more. And you're probably right about Dennis exiting the column of warmer water. That may level out the intensification to landfall.


Actually, hes moving into a warm water eddy overnight tonight.
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#110 Postby HurricaneBill » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:01 pm

Normandy wrote:This is the strongest looking cat3 storm I have ever seen. Its hard for me to believe the winds are still 125 mph.


Isidore had a pressure of 934 mb, but sustained winds of 125 mph.
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#111 Postby Innotech » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:01 pm

its oging to intensify more. The winds havent caught up with hte pressure yet.
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#112 Postby sprink52 » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:02 pm

Well, our nephew's new house is almost finished in Mobile but he couldn't get insurance to close in the last ten days because of the storms. He might not have any thing to close on come Monday. Oh I asked him if the builder at least put the code required storm panels up. He said that their code doesn't require them!!! I was SHOCKED in dis belief!!! :eek:
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#113 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:04 pm

TCDAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005

AFTER DEEPENING AT A RATE THAT BORDERED ON INSANE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...DENNIS HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AT A MORE NORMAL
RATE THIS EVENING. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 941
MB...WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 122 KT IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 110 KT. IT IS
EXPECTED THAT WHEN THE AIRCRAFT AGAIN SAMPLES THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL
THAT IT WILL FIND STRONGER WINDS THAT WILL JUSTIFY UPGRADING DENNIS
TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ALTHOUGH
DENNIS HAS A VERY LARGE OUTER WIND FIELD... THE HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A VERY SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER.

THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. DENNIS IN ON
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND EAST OF A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ARKANSAS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
TO JUST OFF THE TEXAS COAST. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD KEEP DENNIS
ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR AT
LEAST 2 DAYS...WITH THIS MOTION BRINGING THE STORM INLAND ON
SUNDAY. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN CALLING FOR
LANDFALL IN THE PENSACOLA FLORIDA-PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI AREA...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE
CLUSTER JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AFTER
LANDFALL...DENNIS SHOULD SLOW AND GRADUALLY RECURVE INTO THE
WESTERLIES OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.

THE COMBINATION OF TIGHT INNER CORE...GOOD TO EXCELLENT OUTFLOW OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE...WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND
COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS SUGGESTS THAT DENNIS HAS NOT YET FINISHED
STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO
REACH 120 KT IN 12 HR. AFTER THAT...CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE DRY AIR INTRUSION AND POSSIBLY INCREASING SHEAR
WILL LIKELY END STRENGTHENING. DENNIS WILL WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL
AND EVENTUALLY BECOME A LOW PRESSURE AREA.

34 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT HAVE BEEN REVISED OUTWARD
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AT KEY WEST.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0300Z 26.6N 85.3W 110 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 28.2N 86.6W 120 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 30.6N 87.9W 120 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 11/1200Z 32.9N 89.0W 65 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 12/0000Z 34.8N 89.8W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 13/0000Z 37.5N 89.0W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
96HR VT 14/0000Z 38.0N 86.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 15/0000Z 38.5N 82.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
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#114 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:07 pm

This is no 125 mph cat3....This looks like a strong cat4 hurricane of between 140 to 145 mph winds....Unless the wind field is still messed up.
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#115 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:08 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:This is no 125 mph cat3....This looks like a strong cat4 hurricane of between 140 to 145 mph winds....Unless the wind field is still messed up.


There has not been a plane since 8 PM.For sure when the plane goes in it will find stronger winds.
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#116 Postby Innotech » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:11 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:This is no 125 mph cat3....This looks like a strong cat4 hurricane of between 140 to 145 mph winds....Unless the wind field is still messed up.


considering htis storm is completely alien to htis time of hte season, I have no idea what to htink about it anymore. It could do anything.
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#117 Postby Mac » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:16 pm

jaysonx wrote:
senorpepr wrote:
jaysonx wrote:
Mac wrote:From the lastest IR sat images, it appears to me as though his eye in contracting and a double eyewall may have formed. He may be about to undergo an ERC, which is probably not a good thing. He's about to head over that warmer water, and he has plenty of time to build up an even stronger head of steam. It would be better if an ERC didn't take place until close to landfall--he might have become a little disorganized and lost some steam right before he hit land.


This is not the last ERC the storm will go under until landfall. I would count on 2 more.


ERCs don't happen that often. This storm has less than one day left over water. There will probably be no more ERCs.


AH, I was always under the assumption that they occured approx. every 12 hours?


As I understand it, the eye continues to shrink as the storm gains intensity--until the inner eye can no longer support the storm. The inner eye collapses and the outer, larger eye becomes the new center of circulation. I have heard that, generally speaking, the more powerful a storm is, the more ERCs you can expect. I don't know if that is exactly true or not, but it makes sense. Ivan certainly went through a considerable amount of ERCs. But, as has been mentioned, we're less than 24 hours until landfall, and ERCs take time. So if he is about to start an ERC, he likely does not have enough time to go through another one prior to landfall. If he did, God help us all--because in order for him to go through another ERC that quickly, he would probably be approaching Cat 5 intensity.
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#118 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:17 pm

This storm looks like Ivan southeast of Jamaica as it became a cat5 for the first time. I'm waiting for the recon an I'm having a hard time waiting.
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#119 Postby Stratusxpeye » Sat Jul 09, 2005 11:22 pm

Me too. It's hard to wait. Don't think I can go to bed tonight.
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#120 Postby jkt21787 » Sat Jul 09, 2005 11:44 pm

hurricanecharley wrote:Recommending verticle evacs at 5am for new orleans if the path continues more to the west. gfs has MS landfall now. Need to save lives.

NON OFFICIAL PRODUCT

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 20
GOLRFC/MIDWEST HURRICANE CENTER ST. LOUIS MO
12AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005

... CATASTROPHIC INTENSIFING CATAGORY FOUR DENNIS EN ROUTE TO DEMOLISHING PARTS OF THE GULF COAST...

AT 12 AM CDT CODE RED HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM NEW ORLEANS LA TO APALACHICOLA FLORIDA CODE BLUE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT FROM APALACHICOLA TO EVERGLADES CITY FLORIDA AND FOR THE LOWER KEYS WEST OF MARATHON.

AT 12 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND ABOUT 320 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI.
DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER OF DENNIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SUNDAY.
BASED ON AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 145MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES DENNIS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL...AND ITS POSSIBLE DENNIS COULD BECOME A CATAGORY 5 HURRICANE ON SUNDAY
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES.
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MILLIBARS
THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIDWEST HURRICANE CENTER AT 6AM CDT

GET OFF TROLL!!!
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