Dennis Advisorys

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timNms
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#141 Postby timNms » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:04 am

TWC says NHC saying 135 mph
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Innotech
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#142 Postby Innotech » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:05 am

937 mb!? that was its intensity at 150 mph off of cuba!!
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#143 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:05 am

Holy mother of god 937 millibars!!!
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#144 Postby Hyperstorm » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:05 am

937 mb! Not another BOMB! :eek:
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#145 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:06 am

HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005

...DENNIS STRENGTHENS TO 135 MPH...NOW A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD TO
THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM EAST OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO BONITA
BEACH...AND FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA COAST WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND
ISLE...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 AM EDT...0500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES
SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BILOXI MISSISSIPPI.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY. THIS MOTION WILL
BRING THE CENTER OF DENNIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER
TODAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES DENNIS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH DENNIS MAY OCCUR AS
FAR AS 150 TO 175 MILES INLAND ALONG THE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 937 MB...27.67 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 14 TO 17 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF DENNIS CROSSES THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SUNDAY. STORM SURGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
ALONG THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT. A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8
INCHES FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI NORTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE DENNIS MAKES
LANDFALL ON THE GULF COAST. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...WITH 1 TO 3
INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
KEYS...AS WELL AS OVER CUBA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

REPEATING THE 1 AM EDT POSITION...27.0 N... 85.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 937 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 3 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

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#146 Postby canegrl04 » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:06 am

Pressure is now 937 ,but Dennis was that earlier with max winds of 150mph.Somethings not right
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#147 Postby Normandy » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:07 am

The winds are probably still catching up...he only finished bombing a short while ago.
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#148 Postby cccmachine » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:08 am

Now listing to Tom Petty and Free Fallin'
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#149 Postby btsgmdad » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:08 am

Been a long time between posts but WOW what a storm! I was sure Cuba was gonna eat the storm last night but instead it has made a comeback of incredible preportions. The still dropping pressures indicate that this storm may not be done making history. My prayers are with all in his path. :(
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#150 Postby pcolaguy » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:08 am

NHC isn't going to jump up to 150 from 125... it's not their way. There was winds of 151 in a recon report, who knows.
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#151 Postby gkrangers » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:08 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I would not be suprized if stronger. :eek:
If you were in charge, every storm would be a Cat 5, no matter what.
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#152 Postby LAwxrgal » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:08 am

Geezus...this pressure is 1MB LOWER than it was off Cuba!!!!
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#153 Postby gkrangers » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:09 am

pcolaguy wrote:NHC isn't going to jump up to 150 from 125... it's not their way. There was winds of 151 in a recon report, who knows.
151mph at flight level is equivalent to 131 knots at flight level is equivalent to the current 135mph at the surface.
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#154 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:11 am

gkrangers wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I would not be suprized if stronger. :eek:
If you were in charge, every storm would be a Cat 5, no matter what.



No it would not just storms that looks close to Ivan. Please lay of the bashing. This is no time for it.

:x
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#155 Postby Innotech » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:11 am

I know what the NHC says but I also know dmaned well htis is a majorly intense cane and I have no doubt in my mind somewhere in that eyewall is 145-150 mph winds at htis moment,
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#156 Postby Stratusxpeye » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:12 am

So with the 937MB Pressure the winds should catch up in about 3-5 hours to around 150mph? Is this correct? On a technical standpoint i mean. And Does anyone have a link to a site with the mb=mph or estimated or anything like that?
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#157 Postby Hyperstorm » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:13 am

OK, now that I've finally calmed down. I was expecting less of a drop because it appeared to have been undergoing an ERC. Just a fairly sharp pressure drop of 3 mb in about 90 minutes is yet again another sign that this storm is NOT done with.

It is currently traversing through a patch of warmer waters in the Central Gulf, so this explains this renewed strengthening.At the current pace, I would not be at all surprised if this becomes one of the strongest hurricanes to EVER strike the United States, coming behind Andrew, Camille, Labor Day Hurricane, etc......

It would not be at all surprising to see this strengthen to maximum winds of 150-160 mph with all the oceanic heat that's in the Gulf of Mexico at this time.

A storm that NEEDS to be taken VERY, VERY seriously......It could be a matter of LIFE or DEATH......EVACUATE!
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#158 Postby timeflow » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:15 am

I believe I heard it takes several hours, perhaps 6, for the wind speeds to increase to the expected amount when the pressure drops. Someone might clarify this, I heard it earlier on Radio NHCWX. It's understandable that there is a lag time to ramp up, but myself wonder if the pressure increased rapidly, would the wind speed slow proportionally?
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#159 Postby sweetpea » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:18 am

Hyperstorm wrote:OK, now that I've finally calmed down. I was expecting less of a drop because it appeared to have been undergoing an ERC. Just a fairly sharp pressure drop of 3 mb in about 90 minutes is yet again another sign that this storm is NOT done with.

It is currently traversing through a patch of warmer waters in the Central Gulf, so this explains this renewed strengthening.At the current pace, I would not be at all surprised if this becomes one of the strongest hurricanes to EVER strike the United States, coming behind Andrew, Camille, Labor Day Hurricane, etc......

It would not be at all surprising to see this strengthen to maximum winds of 150-160 mph with all the oceanic heat that's in the Gulf of Mexico at this time.

A storm that NEEDS to be taken VERY, VERY seriously......It could be a matter of LIFE or DEATH......EVACUATE!


OMG this is so scary. All those people. I hope they evacuated!!!! It will be a long day tomorrow for alot of people. :cry:
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#160 Postby Hyperstorm » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:20 am

Remember everyone.....

A lot of pressure/wind relationships that many are talking about relate to how high or how low the enviromental pressures are. Pressures in the Caribbean were much higher than anywhere in the Gulf of Mexico. Thus, if we compare the difference between the pressures in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico, we find that it takes a lower pressure storm to create higher winds in the Gulf of Mexico...

Pressure dropping to the 920s is certainly in the realm of possibilities.....
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