Dennis Advisorys

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ColdFront77

#21 Postby ColdFront77 » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:18 am

cycloneye wrote:THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/12. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 06Z AND
ESPECIALLY AT 12Z...ALONG WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...INDICATE THE
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GULF JUST
SOUTH OF LOUISIANA IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN AND LARGER THAN ANY OF
THE MODELS WERE INDICATING AT 00Z AND 06Z. THE NOGAPS MODEL DID NOT
CAPTURE THIS FEATURE AT ALL...AND IT AND THE GFDN MODELS ARE THE
ONLY MODELS THAT TAKE DENNIS TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. IT
WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF THE 12Z MODELS SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT
GIVEN THAT THE LOW IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND THAT
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AND IS
NOW LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TO WESTERN TENNESSEE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

FORECASTER STEWART

I've been concerned about the upper-level low and subtropical ridge playing a role in moving Hurricane Dennis further to the east than the
models and official forecast track to the right.

As we know, the UKMET was so far west of the consolidated models toward Mobile Bay, Pensacola and the Florida panhandle. The UKMET
moving along with the others perhaps is an indication of the trough to the west of Dennis and the ridge to the north of the cyclone.

We hear time and time again, tropical systems are difficult to forecast and model GUIDANCE up to three days in advance and as of this morning,
a day and half until landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast.
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#22 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 09, 2005 11:53 am

HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005

...DENNIS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE
PEARL RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM EAST OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE EASTWARD. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST WEST
OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE...INCLUDING
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT
355 MILES... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT
460 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
DENNIS IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE
FLORIDA KEYS...THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA...
WHICH COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ALONG THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STORM SURGE OF
8 TO 10 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER
OF DENNIS CROSSES THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST ON SUNDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY...AND ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

REPEATING THE 1 PM EDT POSITION...25.0 N... 84.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 965 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

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#23 Postby canegrl04 » Sat Jul 09, 2005 12:55 pm

"Herman Munster's son wearing shades and driving a convertible"


I have a cousin named Eddie.I think hes cool :lol:
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#24 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 09, 2005 12:58 pm

ZCZC MIATCEAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM KEY WEST AND TAMPA
INDICATE THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE
25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTH
OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 445 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PASCAGOULA
MISSISSIPPI.

FORECASTER STEWART

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#25 Postby gkrangers » Sat Jul 09, 2005 1:16 pm

Me thinks Stewart isn't going to get much less in the next 36 hours.
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#26 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 09, 2005 1:56 pm

HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
3 PM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005

...DENNIS CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE
PEARL RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM EAST OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE EASTWARD. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST WEST
OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE...INCLUDING
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 3 PM EDT...1900Z...INFORMATION FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...
SATELLITE...AND COASTAL DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE THE CENTER OF THE
EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 295 MILES... SOUTH OF
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PASCAGOULA
MISSISSIPPI.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
DENNIS IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
DENNIS COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AGAIN BY SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT OF THE AIR FORCE RESERVE WAS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE
FLORIDA KEYS...THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA...
WHICH COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ALONG THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STORM SURGE OF
8 TO 10 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER
OF DENNIS CROSSES THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST ON SUNDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY...AND ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

REPEATING THE 3 PM EDT POSITION...25.5 N... 84.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 962 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART
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#27 Postby wxwatcher91 » Sat Jul 09, 2005 2:01 pm

well ...another pressure drop, but the winds are still lagging behind... I think the NHC most imprortant statement in the advisory was saying that category 3 strength could be reached before landfall...
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#28 Postby Agua » Sat Jul 09, 2005 2:03 pm

NHC Track is spot on: only 7 nm W of 5 a.m. NHC forecast position.
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#29 Postby wxwatcher91 » Sat Jul 09, 2005 2:03 pm

a pressure of 962mb supports winds of 110 to 115mph (cat 3)
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#30 Postby dhweather » Sat Jul 09, 2005 2:11 pm

It gives you an uncomfortable feeling when they use a town closeby
as a reference point (Pascagoula)
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#31 Postby wxwatcher91 » Sat Jul 09, 2005 2:20 pm

I'm thinking 120mph by the 11pm
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#32 Postby Lowpressure » Sat Jul 09, 2005 2:28 pm

wxwatcher91 wrote:I'm thinking 120mph by the 11pm


115-120 I am with you. Remember he is over a cool water pool. According to NHC he should be out into warm bath water in a few hours, then we might see more than we want to see. Let's hope not.
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#33 Postby Normandy » Sat Jul 09, 2005 2:36 pm

Im curious, how cool are the waters he is over now....and how warm are the water he will be entering?
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#34 Postby MSRobi911 » Sat Jul 09, 2005 2:45 pm

dhweather wrote:It gives you an uncomfortable feeling when they use a town closeby
as a reference point (Pascagoula)


What would you do if you actually lived here????? and they tell you its headed NW....and the storm is SE.....but it's not coming here ....go figure :)

Mary
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#35 Postby gkrangers » Sat Jul 09, 2005 2:45 pm

Normandy wrote:Im curious, how cool are the waters he is over now....and how warm are the water he will be entering?
Low to mid 80s I think. Theres no significant difference in the water temperature. Maybe 1-2 degrees warmer as he moves NW.
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#36 Postby Brent » Sat Jul 09, 2005 2:47 pm

wxwatcher91 wrote:well ...another pressure drop, but the winds are still lagging behind... I think the NHC most imprortant statement in the advisory was saying that category 3 strength could be reached before landfall...


962 mb supports a 115 mph Cat 3. Should easily catch up. I stick by my 115-120 mph prediction.
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#37 Postby Normandy » Sat Jul 09, 2005 2:52 pm

http://www.maineharbors.com/weather/seatemp4.htm

Is that the current sea surface temp map for GOM? if so, he has a nice eddy ahead of him.
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#38 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 09, 2005 2:56 pm

ZCZC MIATCEAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005

AT 4 PM EDT...2000Z...DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM KEY WEST AND TAMPA
INDICATE THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE
25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTH
OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 405 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PASCAGOULA
MISSISSIPPI.

FORECASTER STEWART
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#39 Postby baitism » Sat Jul 09, 2005 2:59 pm

Normandy wrote:http://www.maineharbors.com/weather/seatemp4.htm

Is that the current sea surface temp map for GOM? if so, he has a nice eddy ahead of him.


Yikes, if he treks a little bit left of the projected track it will keep him over warm water. As for the sheer? Did they change the forecast? I dont see any.
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#40 Postby wxwatcher91 » Sat Jul 09, 2005 3:02 pm

0.4N and 0.4W over past 2 hours
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