cycloneye wrote:THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/12. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 06Z AND
ESPECIALLY AT 12Z...ALONG WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...INDICATE THE
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GULF JUST
SOUTH OF LOUISIANA IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN AND LARGER THAN ANY OF
THE MODELS WERE INDICATING AT 00Z AND 06Z. THE NOGAPS MODEL DID NOT
CAPTURE THIS FEATURE AT ALL...AND IT AND THE GFDN MODELS ARE THE
ONLY MODELS THAT TAKE DENNIS TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. IT
WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF THE 12Z MODELS SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT
GIVEN THAT THE LOW IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND THAT
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AND IS
NOW LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TO WESTERN TENNESSEE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
I've been concerned about the upper-level low and subtropical ridge playing a role in moving Hurricane Dennis further to the east than the
models and official forecast track to the right.
As we know, the UKMET was so far west of the consolidated models toward Mobile Bay, Pensacola and the Florida panhandle. The UKMET
moving along with the others perhaps is an indication of the trough to the west of Dennis and the ridge to the north of the cyclone.
We hear time and time again, tropical systems are difficult to forecast and model GUIDANCE up to three days in advance and as of this morning,
a day and half until landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast.