Dennis Advisorys

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wxwatcher91
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#61 Postby wxwatcher91 » Sat Jul 09, 2005 5:08 pm

0.2N 0.3W ... so just west of NW
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#62 Postby soonertwister » Sat Jul 09, 2005 5:35 pm

Max Mayfield just said that they are going to forecast category 4 before landfall.

Really terrible news.
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#63 Postby Brent » Sat Jul 09, 2005 5:55 pm

140 mph at landfall

Hurricane Dennis Special Forecast/Advisory Number 22


Statement as of 23:00Z on July 09, 2005



a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for portions of the
northeastern Gulf Coast from the Steinhatchee river Florida westward
to the mouth of the Pearl River at the Louisiana-Mississippi
border.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the Florida West
Coast from east of the Steinhatchee river southward to Flamingo...
and for the lower Florida Keys west of Seven Mile Bridge. A
Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the southeastern
Louisiana coast west of the mouth of the Pearl River to Grand
Isle...including metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Ponchartrain.

A hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning means that hurricane or
tropical storm conditions...respectively...are expected within the
warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane
Warning area.

Hurricane center located near 26.1n 84.9w at 09/2300z
position accurate within 15 nm

present movement toward the northwest or 325 degrees at 12 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 947 mb
eye diameter 10 nm
Max sustained winds 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt.
64 kt....... 35ne 25se 15sw 25nw.
50 kt.......100ne 75se 30sw 55nw.
34 kt.......150ne 150se 80sw 150nw.
12 ft seas..165ne 150se 80sw 150nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 26.1n 84.9w at 09/2300z
at 09/1800z center was located near 25.3n 84.2w

forecast valid 10/0600z 27.5n 85.8w
Max wind 115 kt...gusts 140 kt.
64 kt... 45ne 35se 25sw 30nw.
50 kt...100ne 80se 35sw 60nw.
34 kt...150ne 150se 80sw 150nw.

Forecast valid 10/1800z 29.9n 87.2w
Max wind 120 kt...gusts 145 kt.
64 kt... 45ne 35se 25sw 30nw.
50 kt...105ne 85se 40sw 60nw.
34 kt...150ne 150se 80sw 150nw.

Forecast valid 11/0600z 32.3n 88.4w...inland
Max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.
64 kt... 25ne 25se 0sw 0nw.
50 kt... 70ne 80se 40sw 40nw.
34 kt...130ne 150se 80sw 110nw.

Forecast valid 11/1800z 34.2n 89.3w...inland
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 45ne 45se 0sw 0nw.

Forecast valid 12/1800z 37.0n 89.0w...inland
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 13/1800z 38.0n 87.0w...inland
Max wind 20 kt...gusts 25 kt.

Outlook valid 14/1800z 39.0n 82.0w...inland
Max wind 20 kt...gusts 25 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 26.1n 84.9w

next advisory at 10/0300z

forecaster Beven
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#64 Postby Brent » Sat Jul 09, 2005 5:58 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DENNIS SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005

...DENNIS STRENGTHENS RAPIDLY TO DANGEROUS CATEGOTY 3 MAJOR
HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA WESTWARD
TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER AT THE LOUISIANA-MISSISSIPPI
BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM EAST OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO...
AND FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA COAST WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND
ISLE...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 PM EDT...2300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST OR ABOUT 285 MILES
SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND ABOUT 385 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BILOXI MISSISSIPPI.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. THIS
MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF DENNIS NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST ON SUNDAY.

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT DENNIS HAS STRENGTHENED RAPIDLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THIS MAKES DENNIS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND DENNIS COULD
BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 947 MB...27.96 INCHES. ANOTHER
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE DENNIS.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
ISOLATED TOTALS NEAR 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE DENNIS MAKES
LANDFALL ALONG THE GULF COAST. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ALONG THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
TONIGHT. A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A STORM
SURGE OF 12 TO 14 FEET...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
THE CENTER OF DENNIS CROSSES THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST ON SUNDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY...AND ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

REPEATING THE 7 PM EDT POSITION...26.1 N... 84.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 947 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 9 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#65 Postby canegrl04 » Sat Jul 09, 2005 6:00 pm

Andrew was 155mph.Dennis is going to wipe some town out :eek:
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#66 Postby feederband » Sat Jul 09, 2005 6:10 pm

canegrl04 wrote:Andrew was 155mph.Dennis is going to wipe some town out :eek:

I could be wrong but I think the later on they upgraded Adrew to 160 - 165 mph..
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#67 Postby patsmsg » Sat Jul 09, 2005 6:16 pm

You are not wrong. Andrew was the 14th (tie) most intense by barometric pressure (922 mb) and 175 mph winds. (Which I don't get, because of the 8 storms immediately above it on the intensity range, NONE had winds that high.)
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#68 Postby patsmsg » Sat Jul 09, 2005 6:16 pm

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#69 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 09, 2005 6:20 pm

Sorry that I was not here for the past 2 hours but a thunderstorm here knocked the power off.But I am thankfully back.
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#70 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 09, 2005 6:27 pm

SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005

WHAT A DIFFERENCE 2 HOURS MAKES! AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF DENNIS DROPPED 11
MB IN AN HOUR AND A HALF. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED
N OF THE CENTER WERE 105 KT...AND THERE WERE LIKELY STRONGER WINDS
IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT THAT THE AIRCRAFT DID NOT SAMPLE.
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY UPGRADES DENNIS TO A 100 KT CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. IT IS
UNCLEAR HOW LONG THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION WILL CONTINUE...BUT
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS REVISED TO SHOW 12 HR OF RAPID
STRENGTHENING FOLLOWED BY SLOWER STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL. THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS DENNIS ASHORE AS A CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE. AFTER-LANDFALL INTENSITIES WERE ALSO INCREASED THROUGH
72 HR TO REFLECT THE INCREASED LANDFALL INTENSITY.

THE NEW PACKAGE ALSO INCLUDES SLIGHT REVISIONS TO THE WIND RADII AND
12 FT SEAS RADII.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/2300Z 26.1N 84.9W 100 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 27.5N 85.8W 115 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 29.9N 87.2W 120 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 32.3N 88.4W 75 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 11/1800Z 34.2N 89.3W 35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 12/1800Z 37.0N 89.0W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
96HR VT 13/1800Z 38.0N 87.0W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 14/1800Z 39.0N 82.0W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
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#71 Postby feederband » Sat Jul 09, 2005 6:41 pm

12 HR OF RAPID
STRENGTHENING FOLLOWED BY SLOWER STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL

:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
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#72 Postby Lowpressure » Sat Jul 09, 2005 6:46 pm

feederband wrote:12 HR OF RAPID
STRENGTHENING FOLLOWED BY SLOWER STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL

:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:


This is gettin nasty, intensity estimates still may be conservative. Current pressure equates to 135 mph, Frederick was 27.99 on impact. I was there- Ocean Springs MS.
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#73 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 09, 2005 6:55 pm

ZCZC MIATCEAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005

AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM KEY WEST AND TAMPA
INDICATE THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE
26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTH
OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BILOXI
MISSISSIPPI.

FORECASTER BEVEN

$$
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#74 Postby Stratusxpeye » Sat Jul 09, 2005 7:00 pm

That would seem to be conservitive at 140. I would say 150 or so but thats why im not a pro. Just seems wierd with this sat image and these pressures.
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#75 Postby canegrl04 » Sat Jul 09, 2005 7:05 pm

Holy Crap :eek: I can't believe this is happening. Dennis could conceivbly reach cat 5 :eek:
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#76 Postby WaryEye » Sat Jul 09, 2005 7:12 pm

This is so hard to believe so early in the season... I really thought things would be slow until fall but what do I know? I am praying for whomever receives Dennis and that there is a considerable break between this cane and the next. I am way up in Ohio and very stressed out for all of you down south ! :(
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#77 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 09, 2005 7:26 pm

For sure the winds will be bumped up around 125 mph.
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#78 Postby feederband » Sat Jul 09, 2005 7:36 pm

I just had to pinch myself.... Its only JULY.... :eek:
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#79 Postby Brent » Sat Jul 09, 2005 7:38 pm

feederband wrote:I just had to pinch myself.... Its only JULY.... :eek:


Yep... I thought my computer calendar was broke for awhile.

Emily appears to be on the way too.

:eek:
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#80 Postby Coredesat » Sat Jul 09, 2005 7:41 pm

I'm also saying 125. 130 wouldn't surprise me, though. :eek:
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