Dennis Advisorys

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mikey mike
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#81 Postby mikey mike » Sat Jul 09, 2005 7:46 pm

I'll say they'll change the motion to NNW.


http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLoca ... odnav=none
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#82 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 09, 2005 7:51 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005

...DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 DENNIS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA WESTWARD
TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER AT THE LOUISIANA-MISSISSIPPI
BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM EAST OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO...
AND FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA COAST WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND
ISLE...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM CDT...0100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.1 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES
SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND ABOUT 365 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BILOXI MISSISSIPPI.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. THIS
MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER OF DENNIS NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST ON SUNDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES DENNIS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND
DENNIS COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL ON THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
ISOLATED TOTALS NEAR 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE DENNIS MAKES
LANDFALL ALONG THE GULF COAST. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ALONG THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
TONIGHT. A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A STORM
SURGE OF 12 TO 14 FEET...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
THE CENTER OF DENNIS CROSSES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SUNDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

REPEATING THE 8 PM CDT POSITION...26.3 N... 85.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 942 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#83 Postby canegrl04 » Sat Jul 09, 2005 8:00 pm

I'm predicting Dennis will make landfall the same strength he was before landing on Cuba :(
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#84 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:00 pm

ZCZC MIATCEAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
9 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005

AT 9 PM CDT...0200Z...DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM TAMPA INDICATE THE EYE
OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY
FLORIDA AND ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#85 Postby Wnghs2007 » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:08 pm

So apparently over the last hour its tracked .2N and .1 West...What angle would that be at? Not very good at calculating angles.
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#86 Postby wxwatcher91 » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:08 pm

This is like Andrew only I'd say it will be even stronger pretty soon

look at the satellite!!!! ITS ALMOST PERFECTLY SYMMETRICAL!
Dennis has gotten a LOT smaller =higher winds
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#87 Postby gkrangers » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:10 pm

wxwatcher91 wrote:This is like Andrew only I'd say it will be even stronger pretty soon

look at the satellite!!!! ITS ALMOST PERFECTLY SYMMETRICAL!
Dennis has gotten a LOT smaller =higher winds
Sorry, but its not Andrew.
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#88 Postby Lowpressure » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:12 pm

wxwatcher91 wrote:This is like Andrew only I'd say it will be even stronger pretty soon

look at the satellite!!!! ITS ALMOST PERFECTLY SYMMETRICAL!
Dennis has gotten a LOT smaller =higher winds


Doubtful it gets over 160 at landfall as per your Andrew statement, and smaller does NOT equal stronger. Be careful with your comments, too many people are watching, be reasonable.
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#89 Postby mahicks » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:14 pm

Wnghs2007 wrote:So apparently over the last hour its tracked .2N and .1 West...What angle would that be at? Not very good at calculating angles.



i'd guess nnw
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#90 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:14 pm

What is scary, is the fact that is so much more impressive looking than Ivan was at this point nearing the coast..

We can only hope that it begins to lose some strength.
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#91 Postby Mac » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:25 pm

From the lastest IR sat images, it appears to me as though his eye in contracting and a double eyewall may have formed. He may be about to undergo an ERC, which is probably not a good thing. He's about to head over that warmer water, and he has plenty of time to build up an even stronger head of steam. It would be better if an ERC didn't take place until close to landfall--he might have become a little disorganized and lost some steam right before he hit land.
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#92 Postby wxwatcher91 » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:29 pm

gkrangers wrote:
wxwatcher91 wrote:This is like Andrew only I'd say it will be even stronger pretty soon

look at the satellite!!!! ITS ALMOST PERFECTLY SYMMETRICAL!
Dennis has gotten a LOT smaller =higher winds
Sorry, but its not Andrew.


Oh I know that it is way not Andrew and I'm comparing the strength wise not with when it actually hit land... I know its not a Andrew... I just compared the contracting with him
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#93 Postby jaysonx » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:35 pm

Mac wrote:From the lastest IR sat images, it appears to me as though his eye in contracting and a double eyewall may have formed. He may be about to undergo an ERC, which is probably not a good thing. He's about to head over that warmer water, and he has plenty of time to build up an even stronger head of steam. It would be better if an ERC didn't take place until close to landfall--he might have become a little disorganized and lost some steam right before he hit land.


This is not the last ERC the storm will go under until landfall. I would count on 2 more.
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#94 Postby senorpepr » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:39 pm

jaysonx wrote:
Mac wrote:From the lastest IR sat images, it appears to me as though his eye in contracting and a double eyewall may have formed. He may be about to undergo an ERC, which is probably not a good thing. He's about to head over that warmer water, and he has plenty of time to build up an even stronger head of steam. It would be better if an ERC didn't take place until close to landfall--he might have become a little disorganized and lost some steam right before he hit land.


This is not the last ERC the storm will go under until landfall. I would count on 2 more.


ERCs don't happen that often. This storm has less than one day left over water. There will probably be no more ERCs.
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#95 Postby Brent » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:40 pm

Conference call just ended...

125 mph intensity

140 mph near Mobile Bay at 7pm tomorrow

Recon hasn't sampled NE quadrant yet, will likely find stronger winds, intensification has slowed from earlier "insane" rate(NHC quote).
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#96 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:41 pm

HURRICANE DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005

...DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE DENNIS CONTINUING
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD TO
THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST IS CANCELLED SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM
EAST OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH...AND FOR
THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST WEST
OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE...INCLUDING
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES
SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND ABOUT 340 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BILOXI MISSISSIPPI.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER OF DENNIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST ON SUNDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS
MAKES DENNIS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL...AND DENNIS IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON
SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH DENNIS MAY OCCUR AS
FAR AS 150 TO 175 MILES INLAND ALONG THE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 14 TO 17 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF DENNIS CROSSES THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SUNDAY. STORM SURGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
ALONG THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT. A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8
INCHES FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI NORTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE DENNIS MAKES
LANDFALL ON THE GULF COAST. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...WITH 1 TO 3
INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
KEYS...AS WELL AS OVER CUBA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER ALL OF THE STATE OF
FLORIDA EXCEPT THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...26.6 N... 85.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 941 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM EDT AND 3 AM EDT FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#97 Postby Brent » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:41 pm

HURRICANE DENNIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042005
0300Z SUN JUL 10 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD TO
THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST IS CANCELLED SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM
EAST OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH...AND FOR
THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST WEST
OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE...INCLUDING
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 85.3W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 941 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT.......100NE 75SE 30SW 55NW.
34 KT.......150NE 200SE 80SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..165NE 150SE 80SW 130NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 85.3W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 85.0W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.2N 86.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT...105NE 85SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 80SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 30.6N 87.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 85NE 85SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 200SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 32.9N 89.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT... 75NE 200SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 34.8N 89.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 37.5N 89.0W...INLAND...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 38.0N 86.5W...INLAND REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 38.5N 82.5W...INLAND REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 85.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#98 Postby jaysonx » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:42 pm

senorpepr wrote:
jaysonx wrote:
Mac wrote:From the lastest IR sat images, it appears to me as though his eye in contracting and a double eyewall may have formed. He may be about to undergo an ERC, which is probably not a good thing. He's about to head over that warmer water, and he has plenty of time to build up an even stronger head of steam. It would be better if an ERC didn't take place until close to landfall--he might have become a little disorganized and lost some steam right before he hit land.


This is not the last ERC the storm will go under until landfall. I would count on 2 more.


ERCs don't happen that often. This storm has less than one day left over water. There will probably be no more ERCs.


AH, I was always under the assumption that they occured approx. every 12 hours?
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#99 Postby sprink52 » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:43 pm

This is very serious. I hope no one has stayed behind to watch this "snake" bite!! Move away and let it come. Come back Monday and start clean up and recovery. Thankfully help is on the way. We are a strong people and we will recover.
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#100 Postby mtm4319 » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:45 pm

30.6, 87.9 is near Daphne... looks like the forecast was moved slightly west.
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