Hurricane Emily Advisories

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Hurricane Emily Advisories

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:57 pm

Ok this will be the thursday's advisories thread.Starting with the 2 AM EDT advisorie.
Last edited by cycloneye on Thu Jul 14, 2005 4:40 pm, edited 23 times in total.
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#2 Postby Swimdude » Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:59 am

Where are you Mr. 2 a.m. Update...

:red:
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#3 Postby hicksta » Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:03 am

:grr:
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#4 Postby Swimdude » Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:04 am

***Would any MOD that's awake change the subject title so people know the 2 a.m. is up?***




Issued at: 1:58 AM AST 7/14/05 (gateway).


Emily near grenada,

A hurricane warning is in effect for grenada, st. Vincent, and the grenadines.

At 2 am ast, 0600z, the government of st. Lucia has downgraded the hurricane warning to a tropical storm warning for st. Lucia.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for st. Lucia, trinidad, tobago, and the northern coast of venezuela from pedernales westward to punto fijo, including isla margarita and the offshore islands north of the coast and west of cumana.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for bonaire, curacao, and aruba.

Interests elsewhere in the central caribbean should monitor the progress of emily.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

At 2 am ast, 0600z, the center of hurricane emily was located near latitude 12.0 north, longitude 61.5 west or very near grenada.

Emily is moving toward the west near 18 mph, 30 km/hr, and a gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected during the next 24 hours. On this track, emily will be moving away from the windward islands in a few hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph, 150 km/hr, with higher gusts. Emily is a category one hurricane on the saffir-simpson scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles, 35 km, from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles, 185 km.

An air force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum central pressure of 991 mb, 29.26 inches.

Emily is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches across the windward islands, trinidad and tobago, portions of northern venezuela, and the netherlands antilles, with possible isolated amounts of 12 inches over mountainous terrain. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels can be expected near and to the north of the path of the center.

Repeating the 2 am ast position, 12.0 n, 61.5w. Movement toward, west near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds, 90 mph. Minimum central pressure, 991 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 5 am ast.
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#5 Postby hicksta » Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:05 am

doesnt look w to me...
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#6 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:47 am

14/0545 UTC 11.9N 61.4W T4.0/4.0 EMILY
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#7 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 14, 2005 2:25 am

Looks like by satelite we got landfall on that small island....This is getting better oreganized by the minute.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg
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#8 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 14, 2005 3:36 am

Hurricane Emily Advisory Number 14


Statement as of 5:00 am AST on July 14, 2005


...Emily beginning to move away from the Windward Islands...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect for Grenada.

At 5 am AST...0900z...the Hurricane Warning is downgraded to a
Tropical Storm Warning for St. Vincent and The Grenadines.

At 5 am AST...0900z...the tropical storm warnings for Trinidad and
Tobago are discontinued.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the northern coast of
Venezuela from Pedernales westward to punto fijo...including Isla
Margarita and the offshore islands north of the coast and west of
Cumana.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for Bonaire...Curacao...and
Aruba.

A tropical storm watch may be required for a portion of the South
Coast of Hispaniola later this morning.

Interests elsewhere in the central Caribbean should monitor the
progress of Emily.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 5 am AST...0900z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located near
latitude 12.3 north... longitude 62.3 west or about 45 miles... 70
km... west-northwest of Grenada.
Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph...30
km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for the
next 24 hours. On this track the center will be moving over the
southeastern Caribbean Sea today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph...150 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Emily is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles... 45 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 115 miles...185 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb...29.26 inches.
Emily is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8
inches across portions of the Windward Islands...northern
Venezuela...and the Netherlands Antilles...with possible isolated
amounts of 12 inches over mountainous terrain. These rains could
produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Repeating the 5 am AST position...12.3 N... 62.3 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 90
mph. Minimum central pressure... 991 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 am AST followed by the next complete advisory at 11 am
AST.
Forecaster Pasch
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#9 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 14, 2005 3:38 am

Hurricane Emily Forecast/Advisory Number 14


Statement as of 09:00Z on July 14, 2005



a Hurricane Warning is in effect for Grenada.

At 5 am AST...0900z...the Hurricane Warning is downgraded to a
Tropical Storm Warning for St. Vincent and The Grenadines.

At 5 am AST...0900z...the tropical storm warnings for Trinidad and
Tobago are discontinued.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the northern coast of
Venezuela from Pedernales westward to punto fijo...including Isla
Margarita and the offshore islands north of the coast and west of
Cumana.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for Bonaire...Curacao...and
Aruba.

A tropical storm watch may be required for a portion of the South
Coast of Hispaniola later this morning.

Interests elsewhere in the central Caribbean should monitor the
progress of Emily.

Hurricane center located near 12.3n 62.3w at 14/0900z
position accurate within 30 nm

present movement toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 16 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 991 mb
Max sustained winds 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt.
64 kt....... 25ne 0se 0sw 20nw.
50 kt....... 60ne 50se 0sw 50nw.
34 kt.......100ne 90se 40sw 100nw.
12 ft seas..175ne 90se 60sw 125nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 12.3n 62.3w at 14/0900z
at 14/0600z center was located near 12.0n 61.5w

forecast valid 14/1800z 13.0n 64.7w
Max wind 85 kt...gusts 105 kt.
64 kt... 30ne 0se 0sw 20nw.
50 kt... 60ne 50se 30sw 60nw.
34 kt...100ne 90se 75sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 15/0600z 14.0n 68.0w
Max wind 90 kt...gusts 110 kt.
64 kt... 20ne 20se 20sw 20nw.
50 kt... 75ne 60se 60sw 75nw.
34 kt...120ne 90se 90sw 120nw.

Forecast valid 15/1800z 15.2n 71.5w
Max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.
64 kt... 30ne 20se 20sw 30nw.
50 kt... 75ne 60se 60sw 75nw.
34 kt...120ne 90se 90sw 120nw.

Forecast valid 16/0600z 16.4n 75.0w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.
50 kt... 75ne 60se 60sw 75nw.
34 kt...120ne 90se 90sw 120nw.

Forecast valid 17/0600z 19.0n 82.0w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.
50 kt... 75ne 60se 60sw 75nw.
34 kt...120ne 90se 90sw 120nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 18/0600z 21.0n 88.0w...inland
Max wind 90 kt...gusts 110 kt.

Outlook valid 19/0600z 22.5n 92.5w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 12.3n 62.3w

next advisory at 14/1500z

forecaster Pasch
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#10 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Thu Jul 14, 2005 3:39 am

You just beat me there Matt! He he!
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#11 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 14, 2005 3:48 am

Hurricane Emily Discussion Number 14


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 14, 2005


Observations from Grenada indicate that the center passed over the
island around 07z...at which time the observing site was reporting
westerly winds with a pressure of 993 mb.
After the rapid intensification episode observed yesterday
evening...Emily now appears to be strengthening at a more moderate
pace. This was suggested by central pressures from the last couple
of recon fixes between 04 and 06z. Another hurricane hunter plane
is scheduled to investigate the system around 12z. Satellite
images indicate that the cloud pattern has become rather
symmetrical with fairly well-defined banding features. Upper-level
outflow is also well-defined...and vertical shear is not predicted
to become strong along the path of Emily. Moreover...the hurricane
will be moving over waters of increasingly high oceanic heat
content for the next couple of days. Thus...strengthening seems
inevitable. The NHC intensity forecast for this advisory is
similar to the previous one...and...as noted earlier...could be
conservative.
Based on the recon fixes and the Grenada obs...the motion now
appears to be west-northwestward...285/16. My track forecast
reasoning is basically unchanged from that of the previous advisory
package. Dynamical models maintain a large 500 mb ridge to the
north of Emily through the forecast period. This should force a
continued west-northwestward motion. Track prediction models
remain in fairly good agreement on the direction of motion but
differ on speed. The official track forecast is similar to the
previous one but somewhat faster. Some models... such as the GFDL
and GFS...indicate an even faster motion.

Forecaster Pasch


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 14/0900z 12.3n 62.3w 80 kt
12hr VT 14/1800z 13.0n 64.7w 85 kt
24hr VT 15/0600z 14.0n 68.0w 90 kt
36hr VT 15/1800z 15.2n 71.5w 95 kt
48hr VT 16/0600z 16.4n 75.0w 100 kt
72hr VT 17/0600z 19.0n 82.0w 100 kt
96hr VT 18/0600z 21.0n 88.0w 90 kt...inland
120hr VT 19/0600z 22.5n 92.5w 100 kt

$$
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#12 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:56 am

141155
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM AST THU JUL 14 2005

...EMILY MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CONDITIONS IN
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IMPROVING...

AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. VINCENT AND
THE GRENADINES IS DISCONTINUED...AND THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
GRENADA IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA
MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF
CUMANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTH
COAST OF HISPANIOLA LATER THIS MORNING.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 62.9 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES... 135
KM... WEST-NORTHWEST OF GRENADA.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...NORTHERN
VENEZUELA...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...12.4 N... 62.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 90
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH/FRANKLIN

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#13 Postby wxwatcher91 » Thu Jul 14, 2005 7:01 am

the NHC probably just kept it at the same intensity because recon hastn gotten there yet right?
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#14 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 14, 2005 7:02 am

wxwatcher91 wrote:the NHC probably just kept it at the same intensity because recon hastn gotten there yet right?


Correct. :)
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#15 Postby johngaltfla » Thu Jul 14, 2005 7:04 am

I wonder which model runs will give us a better picture of the future path. I'm wagering on the 0000Z runs tonight....
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#16 Postby drezee » Thu Jul 14, 2005 7:22 am

620
WTNT65 KNHC 141219
TCUAT5
HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
815 PM AST THU JUL 14 2005

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS LOWER PRESSURE IN EMILY...

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT JUST REPORTED A
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 980 MB...A DROP OF 11 MB SINCE THEIR
LAST REPORT. AS YET THEY HAVE NOT REPORTED ANY INCREASE IN EMILY'S
WINDS...HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE FALL IS AN INDICATION THAT A
STRENGTHENING TREND IS BEGINNING.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#17 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Jul 14, 2005 7:27 am

8:15 PM? should be 8:15 AM. I guess they type these up pretty fast. :D
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#18 Postby wxwatcher91 » Thu Jul 14, 2005 7:31 am

thats a bomb
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#19 Postby Anonymous » Thu Jul 14, 2005 7:38 am

wxwatcher91 wrote:thats a bomb


I agree 100% :eek:
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#20 Postby Stratusxpeye » Thu Jul 14, 2005 7:40 am

Thunder~n~Lightning wrote:
wxwatcher91 wrote:thats a bomb


I agree 100% :eek:


I'd say. How many hours was it for the 11mb drop?
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