Hurricane Emily Advisories

[cycloneye]

[hicksta]

and the cone widens

[dwg71]

and the cone widens

Cone is still the same... nothing has changed just an extension of previous forcast.

[hicksta]

they keep showing a WNW all the way till landfall.. i just cant agree with that

[jkt21787]

they keep showing a WNW all the way till landfall.. i just cant agree with that

Why can't you?

[HURAKAN]

By the way, has anyone noticed that yesterday at this time we were talking about TS Emily, and less than 24 hours after becoming a hurricane, Emily becomes our second major storm of the season. Talk about a hot season!!!

[cycloneye]

841
WTNT45 KNHC 142050
TCDAT5
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

LOW-LEVEL DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS AT 1525 AND 1712Z YIELDED
SURFACE-ADJUSTED WINDS OF 92 AND 93 KT. THERE HAVE BEEN NO
ADDITIONAL RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS...BUT SINCE THAT TIME...THE
EYE HAS BECOME MUCH MORE DISTINCT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DVORAK T
NUMBERS HAVE INCREASE BY 0.5 TO 1 T-NUMBER. ON THIS BASIS...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 100 KT...MAKING EMILY THE SECOND
MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/18...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. THE
FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...AND THIS
RIDGE IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP EMILY ON A BASIC
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 12Z UKMET
IS NOW CLOSER TO THE REST OF TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH REMAINS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH SOME VARIATION IN
SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. USERS ARE REMINDED THAT AVERAGE 5-DAY TRACK ERRORS
EXCEED 300 NMI.

GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE NOT BE ANY APPRECIABLE
INCREASE IN SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
CURRENTLY UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT
COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT IF THEY DO NOT CLEAR OUT AS QUICKLY AS
FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT BELOW
EMILY WILL ONLY INCREASE AS THE HURRICANE MAKES ITS WAY TO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS CONTINUED STRENGTHENING. INTERNAL PROCESSES...SUCH
AS HARD TO FORECAST EYEWALL CYCLES...COULD HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE
ON INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS...BUT NO ATTEMPT HAS BEEN MADE TO
ANTICIPATE THESE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 13.3N 65.9W 100 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 14.1N 68.5W 105 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 15.3N 72.1W 115 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 16.5N 75.7W 115 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 17.6N 79.0W 115 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 19.5N 85.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 21.5N 90.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 19/1800Z 23.0N 95.0W 90 KT

[feederband]

By the way, has anyone noticed that yesterday at this time we were talking about TS Emily, and less than 24 hours after becoming a hurricane, Emily becomes our second major storm of the season. Talk about a hot season!!!

Yup, Now were all 5/2/2

[deltadog03]

Ok, so can we disect this real quickly??plz...thanks...lol...anyway,
USERS ARE REMINDED THAT AVERAGE 5-DAY TRACK ERRORS
EXCEED 300 NMI.


2nd...they mentioned some WESTERLIES ahead...hmmm...ding ding ding...that could push it a little NW right?? I have NOT heard them say that before....thoughts??

[jkt21787]

Ok, so can we disect this real quickly??plz...thanks...lol...anyway,
USERS ARE REMINDED THAT AVERAGE 5-DAY TRACK ERRORS
EXCEED 300 NMI.


2nd...they mentioned some WESTERLIES ahead...hmmm...ding ding ding...that could push it a little NW right?? I have NOT heard them say that before....thoughts??

Of course it remains to be seen, but it will likely be more of a producer of shear rather than track changer, and the models insist on it dissipating before Emily arrives.

[deltadog03]

Ok, so can we disect this real quickly??plz...thanks...lol...anyway,
USERS ARE REMINDED THAT AVERAGE 5-DAY TRACK ERRORS
EXCEED 300 NMI.


2nd...they mentioned some WESTERLIES ahead...hmmm...ding ding ding...that could push it a little NW right?? I have NOT heard them say that before....thoughts??

Of course it remains to be seen, but it will likely be more of a producer of shear rather than track changer, and the models insist on it dissipating before Emily arrives.

thanks kevin

[Scorpion]

115...I'll believe it when I see it.

[cycloneye]

115...I'll believe it when I see it.

What do you mean??

[jkt21787]

115...I'll believe it when I see it.

You'll believe it in a few hours when recon is in there and finds it even stonger probably.

Oh wait, you can't even believe recon. You'll never believe it.

[hicksta]

they keep showing a WNW all the way till landfall.. i just cant agree with that

Why can't you?

name one storm that stayed WNW for 5 days straight..

[jkt21787]

Ok, so can we disect this real quickly??plz...thanks...lol...anyway,
USERS ARE REMINDED THAT AVERAGE 5-DAY TRACK ERRORS
EXCEED 300 NMI.


2nd...they mentioned some WESTERLIES ahead...hmmm...ding ding ding...that could push it a little NW right?? I have NOT heard them say that before....thoughts??

Of course it remains to be seen, but it will likely be more of a producer of shear rather than track changer, and the models insist on it dissipating before Emily arrives.

thanks kevin

No problem, BTW I wasn't trying to be mean or anything, especially on the other thread. Its all good...

[canegrl04]

Its premature to call Emily a Mexico cane.If you insist,please lend me your crystal ball

[nolecaster]

I believe it because the NHC said it.....

[Scorpion]

I do believe recon. Thats what I meant, I dont think it is 115 until recon backs it up.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is likely stronger then 115 mph at this time. It has a round red Cdo....Which is classic for your cat4 around a pin hole eye. I can't wait for recon.