Hurricane Emily Advisories

[TexasStooge]

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WTNT35 KNHC 141431
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST THU JUL 14 2005
 
...EMILY STRENGTHENING IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...NOW A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER.  THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.
 
AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA
MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF
CUMANA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND
ARUBA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST OR ABOUT 560
MILES... 905 KM... SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.
 
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 100
MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  EMILY IS A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  976 MB...28.82 INCHES.
 
EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...NORTHERN
VENEZUELA...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  RAINFALL OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL BE DECREASING TODAY.
 
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...12.7 N... 64.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 976 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
AST.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM AST THU JUL 14 2005

...EMILY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...NEARLY CATEGORY THREE...

...AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CUMANA EASTWARD. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA
MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF
CUMANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND
ARUBA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA FROM PUNTA SALINAS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 65.0 WEST OR ABOUT 490
MILES... 795 KM... SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW
NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A STRONG
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES.

EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...NORTHERN
VENEZUELA...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS DECREASING.

REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...12.9 N... 65.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 972 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Scorpion]

Down to 972?? But 110 seems a little high. I'll go with 100-105.

[Brent]

Down to 972?? But 110 seems a little high. I'll go with 100-105.

RECON IS OUT THERE!!!!!!!!! Geez.

[Scorpion]

Recon doesnt support 110 mph winds.

[jkt21787]

Down to 972?? But 110 seems a little high. I'll go with 100-105.

Recon came back with winds to support the 110. Read the recon thread and you'll see it.

[Ivanhater]

haaa brent, some people will argue with the devil himself!

[Brent]

Recon doesnt support 110 mph winds.

Yes it does.

925mb height: 1739 ft; Temp: 72°F; Dewpt: 32°F; E (100°) @ 135 mph

80% reduction is 110 mph.

[jkt21787]

Recon doesnt support 110 mph winds.

925mb height: 1739 ft; Temp: 72°F; Dewpt: 32°F; E (100°) @ 135 mph
850mb height: 4150 ft; Temp: 67°F; Dewpt: 32°F; ESE (120°) @ 132 mph
700mb height: 9593 ft; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: 32°F; N (N/A°) @ N/A mph

Try reading the recon thread

[wxcrazytwo]

Recon doesnt support 110 mph winds.

neither does your logic scorpion. The facts are what they are..

[cycloneye]

Scorpinn please stop it.

[gkrangers]

The latest 925mb winds support about 115.

The latest SURFACE dropsonde ob said 119!

110MPH is a good estimate by the NHC.

[Scorpion]

115-120 mph. Possible, but I doubt it with a 972 mb pressure reading.

[jkt21787]

115-120 mph. Possible, but I doubt it with a 972 mb pressure reading.

I imagine the mods are very close to banning you with this nonsense. READ THE 135 MPH WIND REPORTED BY RECON!!!!

[Brent]

115-120 mph. Possible, but I doubt it with a 972 mb pressure reading.

It doesn't matter... winds are what counts. A 115 mph wind with a 972 mb pressure is just as destructive as a 115 mph wind with a 960 mb pressure.

[Swimdude]

All right guys... That's enough. The point is, the NHC says the max winds are at 110 mph... And we should believe it, as recon reports have confirmed it. They're no longer guessing as before.

Now stop arguing before I make like your mother and bash y'alls heads together. =)

[cycloneye]

115-120 mph. Possible, but I doubt it with a 972 mb pressure reading.

Enough Scorpion.Or you stop it or else.

[wx247]

Oh look it's wobbling.

Seriously though... this thing has its umm, *act* together and this intensification looks to continue.

[mf_dolphin]

Scorpion please check your PM's.

[Scorpion]

Sorry, but in Dennis the winds supported 135 kts yet they kept it at 130 because of pressure. Shouldnt they be doing the same here?