Hurricane Emily Advisories

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cycloneye
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#861 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 20, 2005 5:58 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 39A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
6 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

...EMILY MAKING LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AS A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT
MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD
TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 6 AM CDT...1100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.6 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ON THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...EAST OF SAN
FERNANDO MEXICO. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 75 MILES... 120 KM... SOUTH
OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING
THE CENTER OF EMILY FARTHER INLAND ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. EMILY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE CENTER
MOVES INLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM. SAN FERNANDO RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST
OF 53 MPH...WHILE BROWNSVILLE RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 49
MPH.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH
OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WHERE 5 TO
10 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT...AND
OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.

REPEATING THE 6 AM CDT POSITION...24.8 N... 97.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 944 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#862 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jul 20, 2005 6:04 am

Emily's third landfall, counting Grenada's.

Image
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#863 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 20, 2005 6:06 am

Yes I forgot Grenada.
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#864 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 20, 2005 7:42 am

WTNT65 KNHC 201140
TCUAT5
HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
640 AM CDT TUE JUL 20 2005

...EMILY MOVES INLAND ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO...

DATA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVCE WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR IN
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF THE EYE OF MAJOR
HURRICANE EMILY MADE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY 635 AM CDT THIS
MORNING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO ABOUT 3 MILES SOUTH
OF BOCA MADRE. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 35 MILES ...55 KM...EAST OF SAN
FERNANDO MEXICO...AND ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM... SOUTH OF
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

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#865 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 20, 2005 8:08 am

WTNT35 KNHC 201249
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 39B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

...EMILY MAKES LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AS A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT
MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD
TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM CDT...1300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.7 WEST. THIS POSITION IS JUST
INLAND OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO ABOUT 30 MILES... 50
KM...EAST OF SAN FERNANDO MEXICO. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 75 MILES...
120 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
TAKING EMILY FARTHER INLAND ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. EMILY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS
THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND...WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM. SAN FERNANDO MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND
GUST OF 60 MPH...WHILE BROWNSVILLE RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 45 MPH WITH A GUST TO 59 MPH.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH
OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WHERE 5 TO
10 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 8 AM CDT POSITION...24.8 N... 97.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 945 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART
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#866 Postby chris_fit » Wed Jul 20, 2005 8:21 am

Great job NHC again, perfect track.
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#867 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 20, 2005 8:23 am

chris_fit wrote:Great job NHC again, perfect track.


Agree 100%.Track forecast was A+.
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#868 Postby dhweather » Wed Jul 20, 2005 8:44 am

Agreed - that's why they forecast the tracks of hurricanes!

Exceptional job with Emily.
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#869 Postby Rainband » Wed Jul 20, 2005 8:52 am

cycloneye wrote:
chris_fit wrote:Great job NHC again, perfect track.


Agree 100%.Track forecast was A+.
I know. They rock :P
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#870 Postby Brent » Wed Jul 20, 2005 9:08 am

HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
9 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

AT 9 AM CDT...1400Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 97.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 15 MILES... 25 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST
OF SAN FERNANDO MEXICO AND ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

FORECASTER STEWART
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#871 Postby Brent » Wed Jul 20, 2005 9:42 am

HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2005

DATA FROM THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VELOCITIES
THAT SUPPORTED 110 KT RIGHT AT LANDFALL...WITH APPROXIMATE SURFACE
WIND ESTIMATES ALONG THE COAST OF 100 KT RIGHT UP UNTIL ABOUT 1330Z
AFTER EMILY HAD MOVED INLAND. HOWEVER...OVER THE PAST HOUR...
DOPPLER VELOCITIES HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 100 KT...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET TO 90 KT. EVEN THOUGH EMILY IS AT LEAST 30 N MI
INLAND...IT STILL HAS GOOD INNER-CORE STRUCTURE AND BOTH THE EYE
AND EYEWALL REMAIN WELL DEFINED...AS DOES THE OUTFLOW PATTERN.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS FINALLY A STEADY 280/09. UPPER AIR DATA AT 12Z
INDICATES THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS HAS
REMAINED INTACT AND HAS BUILT WESTWARD INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS SHOULD
KEEP EMILY ON A GENERAL WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. BY
24 HOURS...THE 10000 FT PEAKS OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAIN
RANGE WILL LIKELY SEPARATE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM THE MID-
AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. THE SURFACE/LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY
ACTUALLY REMAIN BEHIND EAST OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGE...WHILE THE REST
OF THE CIRCULATION MOVES FARTHER WESTWARD.

EMILY SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN TODAY AND WILL LIKELY BE BELOW HURRICANE
STRENGTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE
WELL INLAND BY 12 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM STATUS IS BEING MAINTAINED
AT THAT TIME DUE TO THE LARGE TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WIND FIELD THAT
EXISTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OVER WATER AND ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. HOWEVER...COMPLETE DISSIPATION SHOULD
OCCUR BY 24 TO 36 HOURS WHEN EMILY IS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN MEXICO.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/1500Z 25.0N 98.1W 90 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 21/0000Z 25.1N 99.4W 40 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
24HR VT 21/1200Z 25.2N 101.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
36HR VT 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
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#872 Postby Brent » Wed Jul 20, 2005 9:43 am

HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
1500Z WED JUL 20 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER SOUTHWARD TO LA CRUZ MEXICO.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH TEXAS
COAST HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING...AND THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER...AND ALSO FROM SOUTH OF LA
CRUZ SOUTHWARD TO CABO ROJO MEXICO.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 98.1W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 35SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 65NW.
34 KT.......140NE 110SE 75SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 98.1W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 97.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 25.1N 99.4W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 35SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 25.2N 101.1W...REMNANT LOW INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 98.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

FORECASTER STEWART


$$
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#873 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 20, 2005 9:46 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

...EMILY WELL INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...
...WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER SOUTHWARD TO LA CRUZ MEXICO.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH TEXAS
COAST HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING...AND THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER...AND ALSO FROM SOUTH OF LA
CRUZ SOUTHWARD TO CABO ROJO MEXICO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 98.1 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES
... 25 KM... NORTHEAST OF SAN FERNANDO MEXICO AND ABOUT 75 MILES
... 115 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
TAKING EMILY FARTHER INLAND ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
EMILY MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST OF THE CENTER.
RECENTLY...MATAMOROS MEXICO REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 46 MPH WITH
A GUST TO 65 MPH...BROWNSVILLE TEXAS REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 63
MPH...AND LA PESCA MEXICO REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 49 MPH.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF MEXICO AND ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST TODAY.
STORM SURGE VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY THIS EVENING.

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WHERE 5 TO
10 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...25.0 N... 98.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 955 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART
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#874 Postby PurdueWx80 » Wed Jul 20, 2005 9:55 am

Funny - don't ever remember seeing the forecast discussion posted by the NHC before the fcst and public advisories. :lol: That's the part we all just can't stand waiting for.
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#875 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 20, 2005 9:57 am

PurdueWx80 wrote:Funny - don't ever remember seeing the forecast discussion posted by the NHC before the fcst and public advisories. :lol: That's the part we all just can't stand waiting for.


It has happened already this season with Dennis having discussion first than the other products.
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#876 Postby PurdueWx80 » Wed Jul 20, 2005 9:59 am

cycloneye wrote:
PurdueWx80 wrote:Funny - don't ever remember seeing the forecast discussion posted by the NHC before the fcst and public advisories. :lol: That's the part we all just can't stand waiting for.


It has happened already this season with Dennis having discussion first than the other products.


Oops - must've missed it. Sorry.
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#877 Postby Brent » Wed Jul 20, 2005 12:58 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 40A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

...EMILY STICK PACKING A PUNCH AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE WELL
INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER SOUTHWARD TO LA CRUZ MEXICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER...AND ALSO FROM SOUTH OF LA
CRUZ SOUTHWARD TO CABO ROJO MEXICO. PORTIONS OF BOTH WARNING AREAS
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED OR DOWNGRADED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 98.7 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES
... 170 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MONTERREY MEXICO AND ABOUT 85 MILES
... 135 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MCALLEN TEXAS.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
TAKING EMILY FARTHER INLAND ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...MAINLY NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS EMILY MOVES FARTHER INLAND
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST OF THE
CENTER. RECENTLY...MATAMOROS MEXICO AND BROWNSVILLE TEXAS BOTH
REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 46 MPH. DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS ALSO INDICATES THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE STILL LIKELY
OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND
JUST OFFSHORE.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF MEXICO AND ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST TODAY.
STORM SURGE VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY THIS EVENING.

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WHERE 5 TO
10 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...25.0 N... 98.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART
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#878 Postby mvtrucking » Wed Jul 20, 2005 1:54 pm

I wonder if the western track will carry Em anywhere close to the Lake Chapala area?(30 miles south of Guadalajara in the mountains) We are looking at a get away home in that area. Sorry if off topic
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#879 Postby Brent » Wed Jul 20, 2005 1:59 pm

mvtrucking wrote:I wonder if the western track will carry Em anywhere close to the Lake Chapala area?(30 miles south of Guadalajara in the mountains) We are looking at a get away home in that area. Sorry if off topic


That is WAY south of where Emily will track... by about 300 miles.
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#880 Postby Sanibel » Wed Jul 20, 2005 3:10 pm

Just about weakening under hurricane now is it pushes against the Mexican mountains...
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