Hurricane Emily Advisories

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HURAKAN
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#821 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jul 19, 2005 8:02 pm

gkrangers wrote:
Andy_L wrote:Luis? is there no 8pm advisory etc tonight?????
They are doing advisories every two hours now.

5 - 7 - 9 - 11 - 1 - 3 - 5...


8 PM CDT, 9 PM EDT. That's what Luis is trying to say.
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#822 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Jul 19, 2005 8:02 pm

Pressure up 6 millibars?
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#823 Postby Andy_L » Tue Jul 19, 2005 8:02 pm

thanks for the heads up guys....i hadn't noticed that they had switched from EDT to CDT :)
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#824 Postby jkt21787 » Tue Jul 19, 2005 8:02 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Pressure up 6 millibars?

That 942 earlier was a false reading. 948 is actually the lowest its been.
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#825 Postby Gorky » Tue Jul 19, 2005 8:03 pm

jkt21787 wrote:
EMILY HAS TEMPORARILY STALLED BUT IS SOON EXPECTED TO RESUME A
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH ...15 KM/HR.


Wow.. I wonder how long Emily will sit there before moving off. This could certainly increase landfall intensity...
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#826 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jul 19, 2005 8:04 pm

Emily strike in Playa del Carmen was with winds of 135 mph but the movement was at 20 mph. Now 125 mph and stationary. Let see what happens.
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#827 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Jul 19, 2005 8:05 pm

How big are the towns/cities near landfall?
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#828 Postby Buck » Tue Jul 19, 2005 8:06 pm

Yikes... Pressure drop and stalled? Not good.
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#829 Postby Stratosphere747 » Tue Jul 19, 2005 8:12 pm

Not sure if this is the frictional effect of the landmass.

Looking at the experimental radar, it looks to be nudging NW..

Though the eye seems to be growing, instead of tightening.
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#830 Postby Gorky » Tue Jul 19, 2005 8:13 pm

Appears due west but very slow moving looking at the Brownsville Radar: Last few frames do look more NW. bur barely any movement at all...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kbro.shtml
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#831 Postby Stratosphere747 » Tue Jul 19, 2005 8:15 pm

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/bro_N0R_lp.html

There was a 20min gap between loops..

Not much movement in either direction..
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#832 Postby Brent » Tue Jul 19, 2005 8:21 pm

How wonderful...
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#833 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jul 19, 2005 8:22 pm

Image

BEAUTIFUL.
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#834 Postby Brent » Tue Jul 19, 2005 8:23 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:How big are the towns/cities near landfall?


I don't see any big cities on the coast... the biggest coastal city is La Pesca south of where the eye will come in... San Fernando is inland by about 35 miles and the eye should go very close.
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#835 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jul 19, 2005 8:44 pm

Image

DON'T BE SCARED, IS JUST "EMILY"
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#836 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 19, 2005 9:01 pm

ZCZC MIATCEAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
9 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005

AT 9 PM CDT... 0200Z... THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 96.2 WEST OR ABOUT
90 MILES... 145 KM EAST OF BAHIA ALGODONES MEXICO AND 125
MILES... 200 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

FORECASTER KNABB

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#837 Postby senorpepr » Tue Jul 19, 2005 9:17 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:How big are the towns/cities near landfall?


Image
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#838 Postby Lowpressure » Tue Jul 19, 2005 9:19 pm

Nice work pepr.
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#839 Postby mf_dolphin » Tue Jul 19, 2005 9:42 pm

here's a fairly detailed map of the area.

http://www.maps-of-mexico.com/tamaulipa ... p-d1.shtml
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#840 Postby Brent » Tue Jul 19, 2005 9:49 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005

...MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY SLOWLY APPROACHING THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT
MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 96.4 WEST OR ABOUT 115
MILES... 180 KM... SOUTHEAST OF MATAMOROS MEXICO AND ABOUT 120
MILES... 190 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH
...11 KM/HR. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION NEAR 10 MPH IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN DURING THE NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THIS
TRACK... THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...
AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM. OUTER RAINBANDS BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
COASTS OF FAR SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH
OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WHERE 5 TO
10 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT...AND
OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...24.5 N... 96.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 944 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT MIDNIGHT CDT AND 2 AM CDT FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB
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