TS Franklin Advisories

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cycloneye
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TS Franklin Advisories

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 22, 2005 6:29 am

Fridays Advisories.
Last edited by cycloneye on Sat Jul 23, 2005 6:01 am, edited 19 times in total.
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#2 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 22, 2005 6:53 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005

...FRANKLIN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS GREAT ABACO ISLAND
IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS FOR ELEUTHERA... THE ABACOS... AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST OR OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 80
MILES ... 130 KM...EAST OF FREEPORT ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.

FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WOULD KEEP
THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN MOVING PARALLEL TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
HOWEVER...SINCE FRANLIN IS A SMALL TROPICAL STORM...SOME ERRATIC
MOTION IS POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

FRANKLIN MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...26.8 N... 77.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART
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#3 Postby wxwatcher91 » Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:04 am

pressure 1 mb lower!!! :eek: its bombing! :lol:
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#4 Postby wxwatcher91 » Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:08 am

the cone is huge... the 3-day cone is about the same size as a normal 5-day cone... it will be very interesting to see where Franklin goes

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#5 Postby x-y-no » Fri Jul 22, 2005 8:07 am

OK ... I thought they had the 11pm position too far north, but overnight Franklin has moved solidly northwest, so that's kind of a moot point. (Maybe that little comment about erratic movement was aimed at folks like me ;-))

Anyway, happily it looks like the looping option is gone and Franklin will be a fish.

Jan

Edit: Oops .. my bad. Already made landfall in the Bahamas, so he can't purely be a fish. :-)
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#6 Postby Brent » Fri Jul 22, 2005 9:37 am

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005
1500Z FRI JUL 22 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS FOR ELEUTHERA... THE ABACOS... AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 77.0W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 77.0W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 76.8W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 27.7N 77.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 35NE 30SE 15SW 25NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 29.0N 77.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 45NE 35SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.9N 76.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 45SE 25SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 30.4N 74.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 55SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 31.3N 71.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 35SW 45NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 32.5N 68.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 34.0N 62.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.8N 77.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

FORECASTER STEWART
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#7 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 22, 2005 9:44 am

982
WTNT31 KNHC 221443
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005

...FRANKLIN DRIFTING ERRATICALLY NORTHWESTWARD NEAR ABACO ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS FOR ELEUTHERA...THE ABACOS...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.0
WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES... 45 KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GREAT ABACO
ISLAND AND ABOUT 115 MILES... 180 KM...EAST OF FREEPORT GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND.

FRANKLIN HAS BEEN MEANDERING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH... 4 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH...AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WOULD KEEP THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN
MOVING PARALLEL TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. HOWEVER...SINCE FRANLIN
IS A SMALL TROPICAL STORM...SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES
... 55 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

FRANKLIN MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...26.8 N... 77.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART
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#8 Postby jax » Fri Jul 22, 2005 9:56 am

Fraklin is all but stalled... 2mph.

he could be around for awhile...
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#9 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Jul 22, 2005 9:57 am

jax wrote:Fraklin is all but stalled... 2mph.

he could be around for awhile...


That could prove to be very annoying.

<RICKY>
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#10 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 22, 2005 10:03 am

WTNT41 KNHC 221502
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005

THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE OF FRANKLIN HAS IMPROVED THIS
MORNING AND THE SHEAR ON THE WEST SIDE HAS LESSENED. THIS HAS
ALLOWED FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION AND FOR THE CLOUD PATTERN TO BECOME MORE CIRCULAR. THE
SURFACE WIND FIELD HAS ALSO BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS NOTED BY A
1046Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AND SURFACE OBS FROM THE BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA. AIR FORCE RECON FOUND 49 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT... WHICH EQUALS ABOUT A 39-KT SURFACE WIND.
HOWEVER...THE ONBOARD METEOROLOGIST ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF
55-60 IN THE SAME AREA. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING
CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 45 KT...BUT IT COULD BE A LITTLE
HIGHER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 330/02 KT. THE FIRST TWO RECON
POSITIONS HAVE COME IN EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITIONS...
AND THE MOST RECENT FIX CAME IN ABOUT 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
FIRST ONE. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM MIAMI AND
MELBOURNE INDICATE LITTLE OVERALL NET MOTION...OTHER PERHAPS A SLOW
NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 06Z AND 12Z INDICATE THAT
FRANKLIN APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF OR WITHIN A
FAIRLY STOUT MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. AS RESULT...THERE MAY BE
SOME SLOW ERRATIC MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO UNTIL A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS MOVES EASTWARD TO THE U.S. EAST COAST AND WEAKENS
THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH OF FRANKLIN. THAT MAY ALLOW FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD AT THAT TIME AND...IF THE RIDGE WEAKENS AS
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING...THEN THE CYCLONE WOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE RIDGE AND RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...FRANKLIN
IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH RIDGE
TO THE NORTH TO KEEP THE CYCLONE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA AND TURN
TOWARD THE WEST. THIS ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS SUGGESTED BY THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS NHC98 AND A9UK...WHICH MAKE A SMALL
LOOP NORTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THEN TURN FRANKLIN BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 96 HOURS. THE DEEP AND MEDIUM BAM MODELS
HAVE ALSO PERSISTED WITH THEIR PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS OF SLOW
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 36-48 HOURS...AND THEN TURNING THE
CYCLONE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA IN 72-96
HOURS.

THE SHEAR ACROSS FRANKLIN HAS STEADILY WEAKEND THIS MORNING...AND
THE VARIOUS MODELS FORECAST THIS TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
36-48 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME MODEST
STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR AS PER THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. IF
FRANKLIN REMAINS STATIONARY EAST OF FLORIDA AND DOES NOT RECURVE AS
FORECAST...THEN THE INTENSITIES AFTER 48 HOURS WOULD LIKELY BE
HIGHER THAN INDICATED.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 26.8N 77.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 27.7N 77.5W 50 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 29.0N 77.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 29.9N 76.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 24/1200Z 30.4N 74.4W 60 KT
72HR VT 25/1200Z 31.3N 71.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 26/1200Z 32.5N 68.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 27/1200Z 34.0N 62.5W 60 KT
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#11 Postby chris_fit » Fri Jul 22, 2005 10:09 am

They have no idea what Franklin's gonna do. :eek:
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#12 Postby Brent » Fri Jul 22, 2005 10:10 am

Sounds like they still have no idea... :lol:
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#13 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Jul 22, 2005 10:19 am

i dont remember them being this unsure of a track in a while, i have doubts of the out to sea scenario
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#14 Postby sponger » Fri Jul 22, 2005 10:21 am

Looks like they fish story isnt so solid! I can'rt wait to see what they are saying this time tommorow. Don and Ort are still calling for a fish, if one of they drops out then I worry! Where is Watkins and Airforce Met. This get a consensus.

wxman any thoughts????
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#15 Postby Eyes2theSkies » Fri Jul 22, 2005 10:24 am

Thats kinda like a who's on first skit :think:
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#16 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Jul 22, 2005 12:13 pm

I cant tell where this is going to go
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#17 Postby Jim Cantore » Fri Jul 22, 2005 12:55 pm

dont worry

Dispite these projected paths I dont think anyone knows where it will end up it's all guessing now
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#18 Postby Brent » Fri Jul 22, 2005 12:55 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005

...FRANKLIN MOVING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
FOR ELEUTHERA...THE ABACOS...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. THIS WARNING
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.7
WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES... 110 KM... NORTHEAST OF MARSH HARBOR ON
GREAT ABACO ISLAND.

FRANKLIN IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH... 15 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...FRANKLIN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. HOWEVER...SINCE
FRANLIN IS A SMALL TROPICAL STORM...SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS STILL
POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES
... 55 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

FRANKLIN MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...27.4 N... 76.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART
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#19 Postby Jim Cantore » Fri Jul 22, 2005 12:57 pm

Poorly defined? Looks pretty well defined to me.

Image
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#20 Postby wxwatcher91 » Fri Jul 22, 2005 1:01 pm

they are right about the erratic movement though...

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