TS Franklin Advisories

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Ivanhater
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#41 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:09 pm

cycloneye wrote:For those who were expecting the 8 PM advisorie from now because there are no more warnings for the Bahamas the advisories will be issued every 6 hours.The 3 hour advisories timeframe may return if it gets close to Bermuda.



or loops back toward the bahamas :wink:
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#42 Postby Sanibel » Fri Jul 22, 2005 8:00 pm

There's a clear High over Florida shoving into Franklin and disrupting it...
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#43 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 22, 2005 9:45 pm

230244
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005
0300Z SAT JUL 23 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 76.5W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 76.5W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 76.6W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 29.5N 75.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 75SE 20SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 30.7N 74.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 30SW 15NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 31.5N 72.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 40SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 32.2N 69.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 60SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 33.5N 65.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 60SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 35.5N 60.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 38.0N 55.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 76.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

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#44 Postby Brent » Fri Jul 22, 2005 9:46 pm

Image

Here fishy...
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#neversummer

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#45 Postby Brent » Fri Jul 22, 2005 9:47 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005

...FRANKLIN CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST OR ABOUT
145 MILES... 230 KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

FRANKLIN IS MOVING JUST EAST OF DUE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH... 85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES... 140 KM... MAINLY TO THE EAST FROM
THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...28.4 N... 76.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB
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#46 Postby clfenwi » Fri Jul 22, 2005 10:01 pm

786
WTNT41 KNHC 230301
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED NEAR 00Z AND 02Z A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 MB... DOWN ABOUT 4 MB COMPARED TO
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 53
KT IN A BURST OF CONVECTION JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THESE
DATA... ALONG WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...
SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 45 KT. THE OVERALL
APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY REMAINS UNIMPRESSIVE. THE LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE YUCATAN DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS FLORIDA THAT ARE IMPOSING SHEAR ON
FRANKLIN... RESULTING ESSENTIALLY IN HALF OF A TROPICAL STORM...
WITH MOST OF THE WINDS AND CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 45 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS IN A BAND FARTHER
OUT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT ABOUT 50-75 NMI FROM THE CENTER.
THE 34 KT WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED TO THE SOUTHEAST ACCORDINGLY.

THE RECON FIXES INDICATE THAT FRANKLIN HAS SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY AND
IS NOW MOVING JUST EAST OF DUE NORTH... WITH ESTIMATED INITIAL
MOTION OF 010/7. FRANKLIN IS MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH A SLIGHT
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS JUST ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO SHARPEN WHILE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. LITTLE DOUBT REMAINS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL TURN FRANKLIN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST... BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW
FAST FRANKLIN WILL MOVE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NWS MODELS...
GFS AND GFDL... ARE BY FAR THE FASTEST. THE GFS SOLUTION APPEARS
TOO FAST EVEN INITIALLY SINCE IT SHOWS NEARLY AN IMMEDIATE
DECOUPLING OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS... WHICH DOES NOT
SEEM TO YET BE OCCURRING. THE UKMET AND THE NAVY MODELS... NOGAPS
AND GFDN... ARE MUCH SLOWER. IN FACT... THE 18Z NOGAPS IS QUITE A
BIT SLOWER THAN THE 12Z RUN. THEREFORE... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL REMAIN SLOWER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS BUT FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE VERTICAL SHEAR MIGHT ABATE A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...
BUT NORTHERLY SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER AS FRANKIN MOVES
FARTHER NORTH AND THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH COMES OFF THE EAST COAST.
GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND THE PRESENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION... THE
DEVELOPMENT RATE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED. IN FACT...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN ITS SMALL SIZE... FRANKLIN COULD VERY WELL BECOME
SHEARED APART IN 2-3 DAYS. ALONG THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK... THE
TROPICAL STORM WILL REACH SUB-27C SSTS ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE... SO
A WEAKENING TREND IS INTRODUCED LATE IN THE FORECAST. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES IN BETWEEN
THE SHIPS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0300Z 28.4N 76.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 29.5N 75.7W 50 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 30.7N 74.1W 55 KT
36HR VT 24/1200Z 31.5N 72.2W 60 KT
48HR VT 25/0000Z 32.2N 69.9W 60 KT
72HR VT 26/0000Z 33.5N 65.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 27/0000Z 35.5N 60.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 28/0000Z 38.0N 55.0W 50 KT


$$
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#47 Postby Swimdude » Fri Jul 22, 2005 10:12 pm

Pressure drop to 1003... Surprised they're still not predicting a very minimal hurricane. We'll see if Franklin makes it, or if the cooler waters catches him first.
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#48 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Jul 22, 2005 11:42 pm

It looks to be a fish :fishing:
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#49 Postby EDR1222 » Sat Jul 23, 2005 12:08 am

Hurricaneman wrote:It looks to be a fish :fishing:


Agreed, unless he stalls out or starts heading east before he gains much more latitude.
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#50 Postby mtm4319 » Sat Jul 23, 2005 3:39 am

Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 8

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 23, 2005


...Franklin moving north-northeastward away from the Bahamas...

At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 29.1 north... longitude 75.9 west or about
200 miles... 325 km... north-northeast of Great Abaco Island and
about 695 miles...1120 km...west-southwest of Bermuda.


Franklin is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph
...13 km/hr. A turn to the northeast is expected over the next 24
hours.


Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph... 85 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Franklin has become a little better organized overnight and
some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.


Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
...110 km from the center.


Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb...29.53 inches.


Repeating the 5 am EDT position...29.1 N... 75.9 W. Movement
toward...north-northeast near 8 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 50 mph. Minimum central pressure...1000 mb.


The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 11 am EDT.


Forecaster Franklin

(A Franklin forecast on Franklin! :lol: )
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#51 Postby mtm4319 » Sat Jul 23, 2005 3:40 am

NHC forecast track: Very close to Bermuda...

Image
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#52 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jul 23, 2005 3:42 am

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 8


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 23, 2005



Franklin...the storm...not the forecaster...has become a little
better organized overnight. Reports from the Air Force Reserve
hurricane hunter aircraft a few hours ago indicate that the wind
field has become more symmetric while the pressure continued a slow
but steady fall...to 1001 mb at 05z. The peak 850 mb flight level
winds were 57 kt in the northeast quadrant...which supports a solid
45 kt as the surface estimate.
The reconnaissance fixes indicate that Franklin has turned to the
north-northeast...with an initial motion estimated to be 030/7. The
synoptic environment of the cyclone is complicated...resulting in
considerable uncertainty in both the track and intensity forecasts.
A mid-latitude short-wave trough that extends through the Carolinas
is about to move eastward into the Atlantic. In the short
term...this is expected to force Franklin to turn to the northeast.
However...this trough will also bring considerable vertical shear
with it...and by 36-48 hours...the cyclone will find itself under
an unfavorable upper-level northerly or northwesterly flow. In
fact...water vapor imagery already is showing a restriction of the
upper-level outflow to the north of Franklin. The future track of
Franklin is very much tied to how it responds to this impending
shear...and the model guidance is highly divergent. The GFS
decouples the cyclone's low and mid-level circulations and races a
weak system east-northeastward in the low-level flow. The NOGAPS
and UKMET models maintain a stronger...more vertically connected
system that also moves to the east-northeast but much more slowly.
The GFDL has a rather surprising solution in that it is both
relatively fast with the eastward motion and yet also forecasts
Franklin to attain and then maintain hurricane strength for almost
72 hours.
So what to do with this range of possibilities? Small systems are
frequently not that resistent to shear. The official forecast is
therefore considerably faster than the NOGAPS or UKMET guidance.
However...the GFS is already too fast...so perhaps none of the
individual dynamical models have a good handle on this particular
forecast. The official forecast is a primarily a blend of
continuity from the previous forecast...the shallow BAM...the GUNA
consensus...and the FSU superensemble...and is only coincidentally
close to the GFDL. The forecast track has been shifted somewhat
southward...and does show a close approach to Bermuda in 72 hours.
It is Worth noting however...that some of the largest track errors
occur in high-shear scenarios such as this one.
The center of circulation is well embedded in a small circular area
of deep convection...and earlier reconnaissance data suggested that
the cyclone was getting ready to strengthen. Consequently...the
short-term prospects for intensification are good. However...the
opportunity for development in the Long Run appears limited...with
an increase in shear and a decrease in SSTs seemingly in the
cyclone's future. It is quite possible that little or nothing will
be left of Franklin...the storm...not the forecaster...in 2-3 days.

Forecaster Franklin

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 23/0900z 29.1n 75.9w 45 kt
12hr VT 23/1800z 30.0n 74.8w 55 kt
24hr VT 24/0600z 30.8n 73.0w 60 kt
36hr VT 24/1800z 31.4n 71.0w 60 kt
48hr VT 25/0600z 31.8n 69.0w 55 kt
72hr VT 26/0600z 32.5n 65.0w 50 kt
96hr VT 27/0600z 35.0n 60.5w 45 kt
120hr VT 28/0600z 39.0n 56.0w 40 kt


:lol:
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#53 Postby mtm4319 » Sat Jul 23, 2005 3:47 am

Image
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#54 Postby HurricaneJoe22 » Sat Jul 23, 2005 4:01 am

haha Franklin...the forecaster...getting a bit humorous with this discussion :lol:
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Coredesat

#55 Postby Coredesat » Sat Jul 23, 2005 4:19 am

Reminds me of those ads I once saw for "Don Johnson - the Realtor, NOT the actor". :lol:

Model plot:
Image
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#56 Postby P.K. » Sat Jul 23, 2005 5:04 am

lol, very good. :lol:
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#57 Postby wxwatcher91 » Sat Jul 23, 2005 5:15 am

Team Ragnarok wrote:Model plot:
Image


ooo I'm liking the xtrap... :D
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