Franklin Advisories

[mike18xx]

Franklin's LLC, now fully occluded behind FROPA, is going DUE SOUTH (entrained in behind-front northerly flow) at a pretty spry clip now:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005
0300Z MON JUL 25 2005

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANKLIN. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 71.6W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 200 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 75SE 60SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 100SE 75SW 25NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 71.6W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 71.5W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 30.8N 71.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 75SE 60SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 31.0N 70.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 31.7N 68.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 32.5N 67.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 34.0N 65.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 36.5N 61.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 40.0N 55.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 71.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005

...FRANKLIN TEMPORARILY STALLS...EXPECTED TO RESUME AN
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ON MONDAY...

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANKLIN. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA ON MONDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.6 WEST OR ABOUT
410 MILES... 660 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

FRANKLIN HAS BEEN DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH
... 6 KM/HR FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. A SLOW AND ERRATIC DRIFT IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A MOTION TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST FORECAST
TO RESUME ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FRANKLIN IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS...AND SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...30.9 N... 71.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[mike18xx]

Franklin's LLC, now fully occluded behind FROPA, is going DUE SOUTH (entrained in behind-front northerly flow) at a pretty spry clip now:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html

I wouldn't be so certain it's a TD either; even though exposed, a very fierce pressure gradiant is going to set up, so TS-force winds should soon manifest on the north-western flank (which will be the "right front quadrant" when movement vector veers S->SW->W). Of course I also expect convection to re-fire once the SW/W tack is underway.

[cycloneye]

473
WTNT21 KNHC 250233
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005
0300Z MON JUL 25 2005

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANKLIN. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 71.6W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 200 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 75SE 60SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 100SE 75SW 25NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 71.6W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 71.5W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 30.8N 71.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 75SE 60SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 31.0N 70.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 31.7N 68.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 32.5N 67.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 34.0N 65.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 36.5N 61.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 40.0N 55.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 71.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

FORECASTER BEVEN

[mike18xx]

FRANKLIN HAS BEEN DRIFTING TOWARD THE \SOUTH-SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH ... 6 KM/HR FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. A SLOW AND ERRATIC DRIFT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A MOTION TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST FORECAST TO RESUME ON MONDAY.

No way. Not a chance.

[air360]

time will tell...looks like someones going to be dead on and someones going to be dead wrong..no in betweens on this one ...whos it going to be..hehe

[cycloneye]

799
WTNT41 KNHC 250257
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005

FRANKLIN IS BEING AFFECTED BY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THIS EVENING. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW COMPLETELY
EXPOSED...AND THE CONVECTIVE BURSTS TO THE SOUTHEAST ARE GENERALLY
GETTING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB...AND 35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. BASED
ON THESE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KT.

INTERESTING CHANGES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE MOTION THIS EVENING.
FRANKLIN STOPPED MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD JUST AFTER 18Z...AND FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS HAS DRIFTED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS MOTION...
WHICH WAS POORLY FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...IS LIKELY DUE
TO A BUILDING LOW-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF FRANKLIN IN THE WAKE OF THE
PREVIOUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. LARGE-SCALE MODELS
FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO START WEAKENING IN 12 HR OR SO IN FRONT OF
THE NEXT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FRANKLIN TO
RESUME THE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS. THIS MOTION WILL LIKELY BE UNSTEADY...AS THE NEW TROUGH
WILL LIKELY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WHISK FRANKLIN AWAY AND A FINAL
NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION MAY HAVE TO WAIT FOR A THIRD TROUGH IN
3-4 DAYS TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLOWER AND SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
SHALLOW-STEERING BAMS CALLS FOR FRANKLIN TO DO A LOOP BETWEEN
BERMUDA AND THE U. S. FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE...AND IF THE
GFS AND THE CANADIAN ARE CORRECT IT WILL NOT BE GETTING FAVORABLE
FOR AT LEAST 48-72 HR. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS FORECAST A LESS
HOSTILE...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN IDEAL...UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN AFTER
48 HR...WHICH COULD ALLOW FRANKLIN TO RE-INTENSIFY IF THOSE MODELS
ARE CORRECT. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH
120 HR...WHILE THE GFDL AND GFDN SHOW SOME INTENSIFICATION AFTER
24-36 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL GO WITH THE SHIPS
SCENARIO...BUT MAINTAIN A HIGHER INTENSITY THAN THE SHIPS FORECAST
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

THE STALLING DELAYS THE NEED FOR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OF WARNING
FOR BERMUDA. HOWEVER...THEY MAY BE REQUIRED ON MONDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0300Z 30.9N 71.6W 40 KT
12HR VT 25/1200Z 30.8N 71.6W 40 KT
24HR VT 26/0000Z 31.0N 70.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 26/1200Z 31.7N 68.5W 35 KT
48HR VT 27/0000Z 32.5N 67.2W 30 KT
72HR VT 28/0000Z 34.0N 65.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 29/0000Z 36.5N 61.5W 25 KT
120HR VT 30/0000Z 40.0N 55.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING

[mike18xx]

....PAST SEVERAL HOURS HAS DRIFTED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
THIS MOTION...WHICH WAS POORLY FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...IS LIKELY DUE TO A BUILDING LOW-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF FRANKLIN IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO START WEAKENING IN 12 HR OR SO IN FRONT OF THE NEXT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FRANKLIN TO
RESUME THE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION....

Trusting these particular model runs vis-a-vis occluded TCs is an excellent example of the "cherishing a zombie" fallacy:
http://home.mn.rr.com/meadowbrookhome/z/FALLACYS.HTM#199

[Hurricaneman]

It looks like it might take the loop

[Typhoon_Willie]

Yeah it looks like it is taking that loop, but for how long?

[Astro_man92]

nah not long

[P.K.]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 250837
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2005

THE CIRCULATION OF FRANKLIN HAS BEEN EXPOSED FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS
NOW...WITH DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED ONLY IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
NO CLOSER THAN ABOUT 75 NMI FROM THE CENTER. A QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR
10Z YESTERDAY HAD SOME 40 KT VECTORS...AND IT IS PRESUMED THAT THE
CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED SINCE THEN. SHIP WCOB RECENTLY REPORTED 29 KT
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION...SO FRANKLIN IS MOST LIKELY STILL A
TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT...WHICH
IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES.

AFTER DRIFTING SOUTHWARD EARLIER IN THE EVENING...FRANKLIN HAS BEEN
MOVING MOSTLY EASTWARD FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INITIAL
MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY...070/4...IS A SMOOTHED VALUE OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE MAJOR DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY
COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT ON WHAT LIES AHEAD. FRANKLIN HAS MISSED
THE ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE TO ITS NORTHEAST. A SECOND
TROUGH/FRONTAL ZONE WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC IN A DAY OR
SO...BUT THIS TOO PROBABLY WON'T PICK UP THE CYCLONE. A THIRD
TROUGH IS LIKELY TO DO THE TRICK IN 72-96 HOURS...AND MOST GUIDANCE
SHOWS FRANKLIN BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN THIS TROUGH BEFORE THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A CONTINUED ERRATIC TRACK IS TO BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE OVERALL MOTION
SHOULD BE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST BLENDS THE SHALLOW BAM AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AND IS
CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. EVEN
WITH THIS ADJUSTMENT...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE LIES TO THE LEFT OF THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND THIS APPEARS TO LESSEN THE IMMEDIATE THREAT
TO BERMUDA.

NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND A DRY ENVIRONMENT ARE CURRENTLY RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE WEAKENING TREND...AND I DON'T SEE ANYTHING IN THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY TO MAKE ME THINK THIS WILL CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET ALL SEEM TO
WANT TO LESSEN THE SHEAR OVER A SMALL AREA NEAR FRANKLIN...AND IF
THIS HAPPENS...THE WATER UNDERNEATH WOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SOME REDEVELOPMENT. EVEN SO...BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE
SHOW CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRESUMES
THAT FRANKLIN WILL EITHER BE TOO DISRUPTED BY THEN TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THE LOWER SHEAR OR IT WILL NOT BE IN THE RIGHT PLACE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0900Z 30.8N 70.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 25/1800Z 30.9N 69.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/0600Z 31.2N 69.0W 30 KT
36HR VT 26/1800Z 31.6N 68.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 27/0600Z 32.2N 68.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 28/0600Z 34.0N 66.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 29/0600Z 37.5N 63.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
WTNT21 KNHC 250837
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005
0900Z MON JUL 25 2005

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANKLIN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 70.3W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 225SE 50SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 70.3W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 70.8W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 30.9N 69.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 31.2N 69.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 31.6N 68.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 32.2N 68.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 34.0N 66.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 37.5N 63.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 70.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[wxman57]

Let yourself go, Franklin! You wouldn't even qualify for UPGRADING to a depression at this point. Just a low-level swirl with a thunderstorm over 100 miles away is not a TD.

[Thunder44]

Actually in the last few hours the LLC has moved back into the convection and some has developed over it as well.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

You can see the first visible images on the GHCC site, the LLC in the NW edge of the ball of convection now.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[wxman57]

I think you'd have a hard time arguing that Franklin remains a warm-core low at this point. Perhaps the reason the NHC just can't let it go is that it could produce some rain in Bermuda. Now if the NHC would just come out and admit that "Franklin is a cold-core remnant low with some wind gusts near TS force in squalls removed from the center, but since it may affect Bermuda we're going to still call it a TS to avoid any confustion", then I'd have no problem with that. Such a low won't carry those winds aloft down to the surface like a true warm-core system would, so you can't rely on those satellite wind estimates for this systm.

I can see at least one LLC exposed and still at 71W here, and possibly another near 70W. Doesn't look like there is one forming under the convection. Apparently, just a few low level eddies behind a front, now:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/franklin29.gif">

[wxman57]

Made a surface plot with satellite. Still looks like a cold-core low with a squall to the southeast. One ship reported a 30kt wind in the squall.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/franklin30.gif">

[Andrew92]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 251428
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2005

...FRANKLIN MOVING SLOWLY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANKLIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.6 WEST OR ABOUT
295 MILES... 475 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH
... 7 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES
...280 KM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...31.1 N... 69.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$

[Andrew92]

000
WTNT21 KNHC 251428
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005
1500Z MON JUL 25 2005

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANKLIN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 69.6W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 225SE 50SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 69.6W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 69.9W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 31.3N 69.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 31.7N 68.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 32.2N 68.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 32.9N 67.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 35.0N 65.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 39.0N 62.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N 69.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

FORECASTER PASCH

$$

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 251428
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2005

...FRANKLIN MOVING SLOWLY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANKLIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.6 WEST OR ABOUT
295 MILES... 475 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH
... 7 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES
...280 KM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...31.1 N... 69.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH