Franklin Advisories

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Coredesat

#261 Postby Coredesat » Wed Jul 27, 2005 1:11 am

000
WTNT31 KNHC 270557
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM AST WED JUL 27 2005

...FRANKLIN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.8 WEST OR ABOUT
240 MILES... 390 KM...WEST OF BERMUDA.

FRANKLIN IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6
MPH... 9 KM/HR. A GENERAL NORTHWARD DIRECTION OF MOTION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES... 165
KM... TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 2 AM AST POSITION...32.8 N... 68.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB
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#262 Postby Coredesat » Wed Jul 27, 2005 4:01 am

Back to advisories every 6 hours, Franklin now moving northward:

000
WTNT31 KNHC 270834
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST WED JUL 27 2005

...FRANKLIN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...

AT 5 AM AST... 0900Z... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM AST... 0900Z... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 68.8 WEST OR ABOUT
240 MILES... 385 KM... WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH... 11 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES... 165
KM... MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...33.1 N... 68.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB
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#263 Postby Wnghs2007 » Wed Jul 27, 2005 4:08 am

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 24

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 27, 2005


the low level center of Franklin has once again become exposed... to
the north of a limited area of convection that is still fairly
deep... with tops as cold as about -70 degrees celsius. While the
system is sheared... the low level center is still close enough to
the convection such that Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB remain 35 kt... so Franklin hangs on as a 35 kt tropical storm
on this advisory.

While the convection has not moved much during the past few hours...
the low level center has been moving steadily toward the north at
about 6 kt. This could be the end of the erratic motion and the
start of the long-awaited acceleration to the north and eventually
the northeast... ahead of the midlatitude trough and attendant cold
front now approaching the northeastern United States. It will
probably take Franklin about 24 more hours... while a ridge builds
to its east and the trough approaches from the west... to begin
moving much faster and more northeastward than it is currently.
The various dynamical models generally agree on this scenario...
although they continue to disagree on forward speed later in the
forecast. Due to the faster than expected initial motion... the
new track is faster than the previous advisory but slower than the
model consensus... with which I am relatively comfortable given
that the models have been too fast the last couple of days to send
Franklin off to the races.

It does not seem that the environment... in terms of vertical wind
shear... will become much more favorable for strengthening during
the next couple of days along the forecast track before Franklin
reaches cooler waters. The intensity forecast is therefore kept
level at 35 kt... which is a compromise between the GFDL and SHIPS
guidance... until Franklin becomes extratropical and eventually
becomes absorbed by a larger extratropical system during the next
three to four days.


Forecaster Knabb




forecast positions and Max winds


initial 27/0900z 33.1n 68.8w 35 kt
12hr VT 27/1800z 34.1n 68.8w 35 kt
24hr VT 28/0600z 35.7n 68.2w 35 kt
36hr VT 28/1800z 37.6n 66.9w 35 kt
48hr VT 29/0600z 39.7n 64.5w 35 kt...becoming extratropical
72hr VT 30/0600z 43.5n 56.5w 30 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 31/0600z...absorbed by extratropical system




$$
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#264 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Jul 27, 2005 5:04 am

I needed a place to post this....

Gert was at landfall a 46 knot tropical storm or over 50 mph. Not bad for a system some say was not a tropical storm.

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/pub/hrd/hwind/2 ... l04deg.png

The fact is he had more support then Bret. In given more time he would of become more.. :wink:


The recon reported on the last Advisorie before landfall that this storm was getting stronger.
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#265 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 27, 2005 9:39 am

WTNT41 KNHC 271437
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2005

THE LOW LEVEL CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A LARGE
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...CLOUD
TOPS HAVE COOLED TO -80C AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED CLOSER TO
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. A 1017Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED SEVERAL
UNFLAGGED 35-KT WIND VECTORS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE...
INCLUDING A FEW 40-KT UNFLAGGED VECTORS. THIS IS THE BASIS FOR
INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 40 KT AND FOR MODIFYING THE
34-KT WIND RADII.

FRANKLIN CONTINUES TO MAKE SMALL WOBBLES ABOUT A MEAN MOTION TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST...OR 335/05. AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD...THE
STEERING FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD HELP TO ACCELERATE FRANKLIN TO THE NORTH AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...UNTIL THE DEEP-LAYER STEERING FLOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED...FRANKLIN MAY CONTINUE TO MAKE SMALL WOBBLES
IN THE TRACK...BUT GENERALLY IN A NORTHWARD DIRECTION. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 24
HOURS...BUT ONLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL
POSITION...AND IS THEN BASICALLY BACK ON TRACK AFTER THAT. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 36 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...THE TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS MODELS
SINCE THE UKMET TRACKER ALGORITHM ERRONEOUSLY LOCKED ONTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE FAR NORTHERN CANADIAN MARITIMES.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY BEEN REDEVELOPING AND PROPAGATING UP
THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE PAST 3-4 HOURS.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR VECTOR SHIFTING FROM
THE NORTH TO THE EAST. THE SHIPS MODEL AND SOME OF THE OTHER GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR VECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SWING AROUND FROM EAST TO SOUTH AND FINALLY SOUTHWEST BY 36 HOURS
...WITH SHEAR VALUES ONLY AROUND 5 KT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEEP
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP OVER OR NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
AND BRING ABOUT AT LEAST SOME MODEST RE-INTENSIFICATION UNTIL
FRANKLIN REACHES MUCH COLDER SSTS IN 42-48 HOURS AND WEAKENS AGAIN.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/1500Z 33.4N 69.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 34.5N 69.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 36.4N 67.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 38.4N 65.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 29/1200Z 40.4N 62.8W 35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 30/1200Z 44.5N 55.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 31/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

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#266 Postby Andrew92 » Wed Jul 27, 2005 9:43 am

Sheesh when will he go away? :roll:
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#267 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jul 27, 2005 3:03 pm

Image

I know everyone is more concerned with 92L and 93L but our friend Franky is exploding, now a 50 mph storm!
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#268 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Jul 27, 2005 3:12 pm

92L looks promising by Friday while its passing north of the Islands. If we have Harvey in July that would be like wow. In given the chance this would.

Frankie is developing deep convection over its LLC. It is moving north-northwest still. Lets see if it can get pass 70 west again. That would be something if this thing doe's not turn north but goe's more northwest into the northeast.

:)
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#269 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 27, 2005 3:39 pm

978
WTNT31 KNHC 272038
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST WED JUL 27 2005

...FRANKLIN MOVING NORTHWARD AND RE-STRENGTHENING...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.3 WEST OR ABOUT
285 MILES... 455 KM... WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED...EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM...MAINLY SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...33.9 N... 69.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$



864
WTNT21 KNHC 272033
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005
2100Z WED JUL 27 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 69.3W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 90SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 250SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 69.3W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 69.3W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 35.2N 68.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 25SE 25SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 37.0N 67.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 90SE 90SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 38.8N 64.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 40.9N 61.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 45.0N 53.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.9N 69.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

FORECASTER STEWART
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#270 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 27, 2005 3:41 pm

WTNT41 KNHC 272032
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2005

DEEP CONVECTION...WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C...HAVE DEVELOPED UP THE
WEST SIDE OF AND VERY NEAR THE NOW PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON A
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AT 18Z.
HOWEVER...SINCE THAT TIME...OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE BEEN
RUNNING CLOSE TO T3.3/51 KT. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS SLOWLY
IMPROVING IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT IS RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE.

THROUGH 18Z...FRANKLIN HAD BEEN MOVING AT 340/05...BUT OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS THE MOTION APPEARS TO BE 360/06...AND THAT IS WHAT
WAS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. FRANKLIN SHOULD MOVE
NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD BY
24 HOURS AS A SHARP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM REACH THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. COAST BY 48 HOURS. THE
DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE FRANKLIN TO THE NORTHEAST OVER COLDER WATER WHERE THE
CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS NOW THAT THE UKMET
HAS COME BACK INTO THE FOLD.

THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR VECTOR HAS BEEN GRADUALLY VEERING FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT VEERING OF THE SHEAR VECTOR WILL CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO. THIS PATTERN...COUPLED WITH DECREASING WIND
SHEAR VALUES AS LOW AS 5 KT...SHOULD RESULT INC CONVECTION
GRADUALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION...AND PERHAPS EVEN ALLOW
FRANKLIN TO BRIEFLY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BY ABOUT 24 HOURS.
AFTER THAT...FRANKLIN IS EXPECTED TO REACH MUCH COLDER SSTS BY 48
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO BRING ABOUT RAPID WEAKENING. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL
AND MUCH HIGHER...MORE THAN 25 KT...THAN THE GFDL MODEL.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/2100Z 33.9N 69.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 35.2N 68.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 37.0N 67.1W 55 KT
36HR VT 29/0600Z 38.8N 64.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 29/1800Z 40.9N 61.5W 35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 30/1800Z 45.0N 53.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 31/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

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#271 Postby mike18xx » Wed Jul 27, 2005 3:49 pm

Wnghs2007 wrote:While the convection has not moved much during the past few hours...the low level center has been moving steadily toward the north at about 6 kt.
Actually it's moved NW/NNW, and is almost due south of Cape Cod now.
It does not seem that the environment... in terms of vertical windshear... will become much more favorable for strengthening during the next couple of days along the forecast track before Franklin reaches cooler waters....
If Franklin moves NNW for another twelve hours, then recurves NE, the storm will take a long track right up the Gulf Stream. Alex did this last year, and set a record for the farthest north a cat-3 had formed:
Image
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#272 Postby wxwatcher91 » Wed Jul 27, 2005 3:57 pm

This should allow
for at least some modest intensification...and perhaps even allow
Franklin to briefly reach hurricane strength by about 24 hours.


well this will at least mean possibly another hurricane to July... and wadya know maybe major like Alex :lol:
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#273 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Jul 27, 2005 7:36 pm

27/2345 UTC 33.0N 69.7W T3.0/3.0 FRANKLIN -- Atlantic Ocean
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#274 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Jul 27, 2005 7:57 pm

unbelieveable, and about the same time of year too
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#275 Postby Coredesat » Wed Jul 27, 2005 9:20 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Franklin seems to be nearly stationary right now, maybe drifting a bit NNEward.
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#276 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 27, 2005 9:34 pm

TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST WED JUL 27 2005

...FRANKLIN MOVING NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND
BERMUDA WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST OR ABOUT
300 MILES... 480 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...34.3 N... 69.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN

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#277 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Jul 27, 2005 9:36 pm

Thanks Luis
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#278 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 27, 2005 9:41 pm

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2005

WHILE FRANKLIN CONTINUES TO GENERATE COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS...COLDER
THAN -70C...A 0055Z SSM/I OVERPASS INDICATES THAT NO WRAPPING OF
THE CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. INDEED...THE THE
MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THE CENTER IS AGAIN EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF
THE MAIN CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH UNDER THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW. WHILE THE
REASON FOR THIS IS NOT CLEAR...IT SUGGESTS THAT FRANKLIN IS NO
STRONGER THAN IT WAS 6 HR AGO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT
IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 360/5...WITH THE
MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTING FRANKLING MIGHT BE MOVING A LITTLE
FASTER. THE TRACK FORECAST IS STRAIGHTFORWARD. FRANKLIN IS
BETWEEN A BUILDING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC
AND A MID/YUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN
FRANKLIN NORTHEASTWARD IN THE NEXT 12-24 HR...WITH GRADUAL
ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THEREAFTER. ALL TRACK GUIDANCE
AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO...BUT SLIGHTLY LEFT OF...THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

VERTICAL SHEAR IS DECREASING OVER FRANKLIN AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES GENERALLY SOUTHERLY OVER THE STORM. THIS ALLOWS A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FRANKLIN TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE THE APPROACHING
TROUGH INCREASES THE SHEAR...AND THE STORM MOVES NORTH OF THE GULF
STREAM. BOTH OF THESE SHOULD OCCUR IN 24-36 HR. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO 55 KT IN 24 HR...FOLLOWED BY
WEAKENING AS FRANKLIN MERGES WITH THE COLD FRONT AND BECOMES
EXTRATROPICAL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT 55 KT IS HIGHER THAN EITHER
THE SHIPS OR THE GFDL MODELS ARE FORECASTING. AFTER EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION...FRANKLIN WILL LIKELY BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONT IN 72-96
HR.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0300Z 34.3N 69.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 35.5N 69.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 29/0000Z 37.3N 67.1W 55 KT
36HR VT 29/1200Z 39.3N 64.4W 55 KT
48HR VT 30/0000Z 41.8N 60.3W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 31/0000Z 46.0N 51.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 01/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
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Sanibel
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#279 Postby Sanibel » Thu Jul 28, 2005 12:59 am

This is old. The storm is getting much better organized AND WE HAVE NO REPORT! :x
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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#280 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 28, 2005 4:19 am

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

A DEEP BURST OF CONVECTION OCCURRED NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER
LOCATION BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z
FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAINED 45 KT... BUT SINCE THEN THE CONVECTION
HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY... SO FRANKLIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
STRENGTHENING AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT. A SHORT
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY... ABOUT 24 HOURS... EXISTS FOR FRANKLIN TO
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY. WEAKENING WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER UNTIL
FRANKLIN BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AND MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN
ABOUT 3-4 DAYS.

THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS MOSTLY OBSCURED BY THE CONVECTION AND
CIRRUS OUTFLOW... BUT BASED ON EARLIER MICROWAVE OVERPASSES FROM
SSMI AND AMSU... THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN APPEARS TO NOW BE MOVING A
BIT FASTER AND SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH. THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 010/8. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY EMERGING OFF THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD INDUCE A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST TODAY AND A STEADY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON THE HEADING BUT...
AS USUAL IN CASES OF RECURVATURE AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...
PROVIDE WIDELY VARYING SOLUTIONS ON THE SPEED. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
ALTHOUGH JUST A LITTLE SLOWER TO BLEND WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0900Z 35.5N 69.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 36.5N 68.2W 50 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 38.0N 66.2W 55 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 40.1N 63.2W 50 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 42.4N 59.3W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 31/0600Z 46.5N 49.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 01/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
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