Franklin Advisories

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Derek Ortt

#301 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Jul 29, 2005 9:50 am

WTNT41 KNHC 291435
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005

TENACIOUS FRANKLIN STILL HAS A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER AND THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...
THE OVERALL CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45
KNOTS AND FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 19 KNOTS...
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN
ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND WILL LIKELY BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM
THEREAFTER.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1500Z 41.4N 61.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 43.0N 58.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 30/1200Z 45.5N 53.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 31/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$


WTNT21 KNHC 291435
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005
1500Z FRI JUL 29 2005

GALE AND STORM FORCE WIND WARNINGS... ISSUED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICE OF CANADA... ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SLOPE WATERS SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND THE GRAND BANKS SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.4N 61.8W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 75SE 75SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 250SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.4N 61.8W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.8N 62.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 43.0N 58.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 90SE 90SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 45.5N 53.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.4N 61.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA

That is the length of disucssion that I like. Compact and to the point
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#302 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 29, 2005 3:31 pm


TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST FRI JUL 29 2005

...FRANKLIN BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL...

GALE AND STORM FORCE WIND WARNINGS...ISSUED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICE OF CANADA... ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SLOPE WATERS SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND THE GRAND BANKS SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.9 WEST OR ABOUT
265 MILES... 425 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
AND ABOUT 390 MILES... 630 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND.

FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FRANKLIN IS ALREADY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE COLD
WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANKLIN.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...42.8 N... 58.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECASTER AVILA


Adios !!!!!!!!RIP. :)
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#303 Postby Andrew92 » Fri Jul 29, 2005 3:31 pm

FINALLY!!!!

Franklin, :Door: And don't let it hit you on the way out! See ya in 2011!

-Andrew92
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#304 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Jul 29, 2005 3:38 pm

It still has alot of deep convection near its core. I seen them hold on a little longer before with worst.
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#305 Postby Andrew92 » Fri Jul 29, 2005 3:39 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:It still has alot of deep convection near its core. I seen them hold on a little longer before with worst.


That alone doesn't necessarily mean it's tropical. The core is colder now; hence, it is no longer tropical.

-Andrew92
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#306 Postby The Big Dog » Fri Jul 29, 2005 3:40 pm

cycloneye wrote:THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC
.

Where do I get this information?
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#307 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Jul 29, 2005 3:41 pm

Here is an advisory from the Canadian Hurricane Center (not sure if they have official responsibility for the N Atl or not, they do once a storm gets to canada)

WOCN31 CWHX 291800
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT
FRIDAY 29 JULY 2005.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

...FRANKLIN NOW MOVING SOUTH OF SABLE ISLAND...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 42.0 N AND LONGITUDE 60.4 W... ABOUT 115 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 215 KM SOUTH OF SABLE ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS... 93 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 997 MB. FRANKLIN IS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 22 KNOTS... 43
KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
JUL 29 3.00 PM 41.8N 60.8W 997 50 93
JUL 29 9.00 PM 43.0N 58.1W 1000 45 83
JUL 30 3.00 AM 44.0N 55.6W 1002 40 74
JUL 30 9.00 AM 44.9N 52.8W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 30 3.00 PM 45.9N 50.0W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 30 9.00 PM 47.0N 47.0W 1009 30 56 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 31 3.00 AM 48.0N 44.0W 1012 25 46 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

MOISTURE FROM FRANKLIN WILL AFFECT THE AVALON PENINSULA THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. 15 TO 25 MM OF RAIN ARE
FORECAST WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 50 MM POSSIBLE IN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSHOWERS.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

STRONG TO GALE FORCE NORTHEASTERLIES WILL OCCUR OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MARITIMES MARINE DISTRICT. STORM FORCE WINDS
MAY OCCUR OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE EAST SCOTIAN SLOPE.
STORM FORCE SOUTHWESTERLIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
LAURENTIAN FAN. GALES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GRAND BANKS AS FRANKLIN
WEAKENS ON SATURDAY.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

FRANKLIN STILL LOOKS QUITE TROPICAL ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A
SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR ITS CENTRE. QUICKSCAT WINDS
SHOW A MAXIMUM OF 50 KNOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTRE SO WE KEEP
THAT AS OUR INITIAL INTENSITY. THE CENTRE OF FRANKLIN HAS NOW ENTERED
CANADIAN MARINE AREAS.

B. PROGNOSTIC

NUMERICAL MODELS NOW SHOW THAT THE BEGINNING OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION FOR FRANKLIN IS IMMINENT. BECAUSE OF THIS WE HAVE
MOVED UP OUR FORECAST OF FRANKLIN BECOMING POST TROPICAL TO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE AND SHOULD
MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE GRAND BANKS ON SATURDAY.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER

GEM REGIONAL QPF SHOWS TWO DISTINCT BANDS OF PRECIPITATION OVER
NEWFOUNDLAND AT 12Z SATURDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE MOISTURE FROM
FRANKLIN WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE AVALON.

D. MARINE WEATHER

MOST OF THE HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE STORM AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY EASTWARD. HOWEVER BUOY 44137
WHICH IS NORTH OF THE STORM TRACK NOW INDICATES SEAS GREATER THAN 4M.

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
29/18Z 70 120 100 40 30 40 20 0 0 0 0 0
30/00Z 70 120 100 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/06Z 50 100 90 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/12Z 40 100 90 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/18Z 50 90 60 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
31/00Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
31/06Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

END/MILLER
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#308 Postby Andrew92 » Fri Jul 29, 2005 3:41 pm

The Big Dog wrote:
cycloneye wrote:THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC
.

Where do I get this information?


Ocean Prediction Center:
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/
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#309 Postby clfenwi » Fri Jul 29, 2005 3:43 pm

The Big Dog wrote:
cycloneye wrote:THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC
.

Where do I get this information?


http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/foreca ... lantic.txt
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#310 Postby Andrew92 » Fri Jul 29, 2005 3:44 pm

clfenwi wrote:
The Big Dog wrote:
cycloneye wrote:THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC
.

Where do I get this information?


http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/foreca ... lantic.txt


I'll have to remember that link....I even like to track the extratropical remnants as long as I can! I know, I'm crazy. And it's easier if I can remember it than trying to find it via the OPC website.

Still, Frankie is good as gone pretty much.

-Andrew92
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#311 Postby The Big Dog » Fri Jul 29, 2005 3:47 pm

Andrew92 wrote:
clfenwi wrote:
The Big Dog wrote:
cycloneye wrote:THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC
.

Where do I get this information?


http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/foreca ... lantic.txt


I'll have to remember that link....I even like to track the extratropical remnants as long as I can! I know, I'm crazy. And it's easier if I can remember it than trying to find it via the OPC website.

Thanks for the links, everyone. :-)

Yeah, same here. I can do it from HPC advisories when it's over the CONUS, but over the ocean it's a little harder. If I recall, the high seas forecasts don't always give an exact latitude and longitude.

Canadians will be helpful for a little while. Thanks, Derek... forgot about them.
Last edited by The Big Dog on Fri Jul 29, 2005 3:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#312 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 29, 2005 3:50 pm

When I posted final advisorie I should haved said from NHC. :)
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#313 Postby Coredesat » Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:00 pm

Canadian Hurricane Center 9 PM ADT advisory, Franklin finally REALLY becoming extratropical:

WOCN31 CWHX 300000
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT
FRIDAY 29 JULY 2005.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT

...FRANKLIN LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 43.3 N AND LONGITUDE 57.0 W... ABOUT 135 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 255 KM EAST OF SABLE ISLAND . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS... 93 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 997
MB. FRANKLIN IS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 23 KNOTS... 43 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
JUL 29 9.00 PM 43.3N 57.0W 997 50 93
JUL 30 3.00 AM 44.5N 54.0W 997 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 30 9.00 AM 45.8N 51.3W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 30 3.00 PM 47.0N 48.6W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 30 9.00 PM 48.4N 45.4W 1009 30 56 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

MOISTURE FROM FRANKLIN WILL AFFECT THE AVALON PENINSULA THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. 15 TO 25 MM OF RAIN ARE
FORECAST WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 50 MM POSSIBLE IN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSHOWERS.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

STORM FORCE SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF LAURENTIAN FAN. MEANWHILE
GALE FORCE EASTERLIES HAVE BEEN REPORTED FURTHER NORTH.
GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE
TRACK OF FRANKLIN AS IT CROSSES LAURENTIAN FAN AND
SOUTHWESTERN GRAND BANKS EARLY TONIGHT. AFTERWARD GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE PREDICTED SOUTH OF THE TRACK OF FRANKLIN
AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS ON SATURDAY.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

FRANKLIN IS LOOKING MUCH LESS TROPICAL ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
EVENING AND IT APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

B. PROGNOSTIC

FRANKLIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO A POST TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER

GEM REGIONAL QPF SHOWS TWO DISTINCT BANDS OF PRECIPITATION OVER
NEWFOUNDLAND AT 12Z SATURDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE MOISTURE FROM
FRANKLIN WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE AVALON.

D. MARINE WEATHER

MOST OF THE HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE STORM AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY EASTWARD. SEAS IN EXCESS OF 4M
HAVE BEEN REPORTED.

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
30/00Z 60 120 90 30 30 40 20 0 0 0 0 0
30/06Z 50 100 90 30 30 40 20 0 0 0 0 0
30/12Z 40 100 70 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/18Z 30 90 60 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
31/00Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

END/ROUSSEL/MILLER
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#314 Postby The Big Dog » Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:57 pm

Just wondering... Why are the Canadians stating 50 kts, when the last NHC advisory was 35 kts?
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#315 Postby Coredesat » Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:59 pm

The Big Dog wrote:Just wondering... Why are the Canadians stating 50 kts, when the last NHC advisory was 35 kts?


I was wondering that myself, actually.
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#316 Postby Swimdude » Fri Jul 29, 2005 9:52 pm

I smell a funeral coming on...
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#317 Postby HurricaneJoe22 » Fri Jul 29, 2005 10:44 pm

NHC probably is saying goodbye to this thing so they can take a break from writing advisories for maybe a day or two....lord knows they need the rest...nevertheless, they do get paid well I'm sure
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#318 Postby Andrew92 » Fri Jul 29, 2005 10:46 pm

HurricaneJoe22 wrote:NHC probably is saying goodbye to this thing so they can take a break from writing advisories for maybe a day or two....lord knows they need the rest...nevertheless, they do get paid well I'm sure


They deserve a break....hopefully 92L doesn't develop.

-Andrew92
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#319 Postby Coredesat » Sat Jul 30, 2005 1:59 am

WOCN31 CWHX 300600
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT
SATURDAY 30 JULY 2005.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT

... FRANKLIN RAPIDLY WEAKENING TO POST-TROPICAL DISTURBANCE...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 44.0 N AND LONGITUDE 54.5 W... ABOUT 170 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 315 KM SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 48 KNOTS... 89 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 998 MB. FRANKLIN IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 29 KNOTS... 54 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
JUL 30 3.00 AM 44.0N 54.5W 998 48 89
JUL 30 9.00 AM 45.7N 51.2W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 30 3.00 PM 46.9N 48.5W 1009 30 56 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 30 9.00 PM 49.1N 44.0W 1009 30 56 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 31 3.00 AM 52.1N 41.7W 1009 29 54 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 31 9.00 AM 57.0N 40.0W 1010 28 52 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 31 3.00 PM 58.8N 39.4W 1009 29 54 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

MOISTURE FROM FRANKLIN WILL AFFECT THE AVALON PENINSULA THIS
MORNING. 15 TO 25 MM OF RAIN ARE FORECAST WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS
AS HIGH AS 50 MM POSSIBLE IN EMBEDDED THUNDERSHOWERS.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

STORM FORCE SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED JUST SOUTH OF
FRANKLIN OVERNIGHT WITH GALE FORCE EASTERLIES AHEAD OF IT.
GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE
TRACK OF FRANKLIN AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHWESTERN GRAND BANKS
EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTERWARD GALE FORCE WINDS ARE PREDICTED
SOUTH OF THE TRACK AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN GRAND BANKS TODAY. IT WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE NORTHERN GRAND BANKS EARLY THIS EVENING THEN AWAY
TOWARDS THE NORTH NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD HAVE MOVED AHEAD OF THE STORM CENTER.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD AROUND THE STORM INDICATES CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
AT THE SURFACE. FRANKLIN IS STILL CONSIDERED AN ENTITY
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 48 KNOTS.

B. PROGNOSTIC

FRANKLIN WILL BECOME POST TROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOUR PERIOD.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER

CANADIAN AND US MODELS INDICATE SIMILAR PRECIPITATION
PATTERNS MAINLY OVER THE AVALON PENISULA.

D. MARINE WEATHER

MOST OF THE HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE STORM AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY EASTWARD. SEAS IN EXCESS OF 4M
HAVE BEEN REPORTED.

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
30/06Z 180 120 70 90 30 60 20 0 0 0 0 0
30/12Z 180 120 70 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30/18Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
31/00Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
31/06Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
31/12Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
31/18Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


END/ROUSSEL
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#320 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jul 30, 2005 2:11 am

So the Canada hurricane center is like the same as Japan has over the western pacific. Interesting...

So if the Canada hurricane center is offical in this area. That means they down graded it at 9pm est instead of the nhc 5pm. So who knows.
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