Franklin Advisories

[cycloneye]

TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2005

CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 35 KT...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
ESTIMATES FROM SATELLITE ANALYSES. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE STORM AND WILL PROVIDE MORE
DEFINITIVE INTENSITY INFORMATION. LATE BREAKING NEWS SINCE THE
ADVISORY WAS TRANSMITTED...THE AIRCRAFT JUST REPORTED A CENTRAL
PRESSURE NEAR 1000 MB...SO THE CYCLONE COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN WE WERE ESTIMATING.

NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ON FRANKLIN PERSISTS...AS VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE STORM NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH
THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO INHIBIT STRENGTHENING...THE
CYCLONE HAS A SUBSTANTIAL CIRCULATION THAT WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN.
INDEED...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW COULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS FRANKLIN AS A TROPICAL STORM A LITTLE
LONGER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
WHETHER FRANKLIN WILL ACTUALLY MAKE A COMEBACK. NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD...ASSUMING THAT THE SYSTEM MOVES ANYWHERE NEAR OUR
FORECAST TRACK...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE PASSING OVER SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WATERS AND DISSIPATING.

FRANKLIN CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FITS AND STARTS...AND THE CURRENT
MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 070/4. STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN
WEAK WITH THE MAIN BELT OF MID-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE STORM. IN SEVERAL DAYS A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD IN THE VICINITY OF 60W...WHICH WOULD EVENTUALLY
DRIVE FRANKLIN TOWARD HIGHER LATITUDES. IN THE MEANTIME...THE
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE A SLOW ERRATIC MOTION. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A SLOW EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH A
GRADUAL BEND TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SUITE OF DYNAMICAL TRACK
GUIDANCE MODELS. ALL OF THIS GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CENTER WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA...MINIMIZING THE THREAT OF THE CENTER PASSING
OVER THAT ISLAND. HOWEVER INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FRANKLIN'S PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/1500Z 31.1N 69.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 31.3N 69.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/1200Z 31.7N 68.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 27/0000Z 32.2N 68.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 27/1200Z 32.9N 67.3W 30 KT
72HR VT 28/1200Z 35.0N 65.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 29/1200Z 39.0N 62.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

[cycloneye]

252032
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005

...FRANKLIN STALLED...

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANKLIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST OR ABOUT
300 MILES... 480 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

FRANKLIN HAS BEEN MEANDERING OR NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...BUT A SLOW EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES
...280 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...30.7 N... 69.5 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$


019
WTNT21 KNHC 252032
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005
2100Z MON JUL 25 2005

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANKLIN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 69.5W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 225SE 50SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 69.5W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 69.7W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 31.2N 69.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 31.6N 69.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 32.3N 68.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 33.5N 68.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 36.0N 67.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 40.0N 63.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.7N 69.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

252034
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005

AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATED FRANKLIN EARLIER TODAY AND
FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT AND...BASED ON DROPSONDE-DERIVED WIND PROFILES...MAXIMUM
SURFACE WINDS WERE NEAR 40 KT. SINCE THEN...THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION HAS DETERIORATED MARKEDLY WITH AN INCREASING
SEPARATION OF THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER FROM AN AREA OF DIMINISHING DEEP
CONVECTION. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH THE STORM WAS PROBABLY A LITTLE
STRONGER AROUND 12Z TODAY...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE
AROUND 35 KT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP NEARER
TO THE CENTER TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT
RE-INTENSIFICATION IS NOT VERY LIKELY AND FRANKLIN SHOULD BE
DISSIPATING DUE TO COOLER WATERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
WIND SPEED FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE LATEST FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY PREDICTION.

FRANKLIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ERRATICALLY...TAKING ONE STEP BACKWARDS
FOR EVERY FEW STEPS FORWARD. LATELY THE CENTER HAS BEEN MEANDERING
IN MORE OR LESS THE SAME LOCATION...SO STATIONARY IS THE BEST BET
FOR INITIAL MOTION. STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A
NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT EARLY IN THE PERIOD. GLOBAL MODELS BUILD A
RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF 60W IN 2-3 DAYS...SO A MORE DETERMINED
MOTION...TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE BY THAT
TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DYNAMICAL
TRACK MODEL SUITE. ALTHOUGH THIS LESSENS THE POTENTIAL THREAT FOR
BERMUDA...INTERESTS THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF FRANKLIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2100Z 30.7N 69.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 31.2N 69.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 31.6N 69.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 32.3N 68.5W 35 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 33.5N 68.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 28/1800Z 36.0N 67.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 29/1800Z 40.0N 63.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

[Andrew92]

...Franklin moving erratically eastward...tropical storm watch for
Bermuda...

at 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...the government of Bermuda has issued a
tropical storm watch for Bermuda.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 11 PM AST...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 30.7 north...longitude 68.2 west or about
230 miles... 370 km...west-southwest of Bermuda.

Franklin is moving erratically toward the east near 8 mph...13
km/hr. A turn toward the north-northeast at a slower forward speed
is expected during the next 24 hours...and additional erratic
motion may occur.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24
hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
...280 km mainly to the southeast the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb...29.53 inches.

Repeating the 11 PM AST position...30.7 N... 68.2 W. Movement
toward...east near 8 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1000 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 am AST.

Forecaster Beven


$$

[Andrew92]

Franklin has undergone another structural change this evening. A
new vorticity center appeared from under the convection east of the
main circulation center...and it and the main center are rotating
around each other. The center tracked earlier is currently the
most involved with convection...so that center position is used in
this advisory. However...the appearance of the secondary vorticity
center suggests the possibility that the overall system may reform
during the next day or so...or that a mean circulation center may
become more appropriate for tracking. The initial intensity
remains 35 kt based on satellite estimates of 35 kt from TAFB and
AFWA...and 30 kt from SAB.
The initial motion is an erratic and uncertain 090/7. On the large
scale...the steering is fairly straightforward. A mid-latitude
shortwave trough and associated cold front are passing north of
Franklin. Over the next 48 hr...pressures should rise east of the
storm in the wake of the trough and fall to the west in advance of
the next stronger trough. This suggests Franklin should turn
northward during that time...followed by acceleration northeastward
into the westerlies. All model guidance...including the BAM
models...is now in good agreement with this scenario. However...
superimposed on top of this will be cycloidal motion of the center
inside the larger cyclonic envelope...as well as possible
re-formation of the center due to merger with the secondary
vorticity center or to convective bursts. Thus...the erratic
motion seen for the last 24-30 hr will likely continue...starting
with the center taking a northward turn during the next few hours
as the secondary center moves to its west.
A convective burst is near the primary center right now...and water
vapor imagery suggests a small upper-level low has formed near
Franklin. This may provide temporary protection from the shear.
However...large-scale models forecast this low to get pushed away
from the storm by strong northwesterly upper-level flow...which is
currently seen approaching Franklin in water vapor imagery. The
GFS forecasts a very hostile environment during the next 48
hr...with strong shear and a new upper-level cyclonic shear axis
forming near the storm. The UKMET and NOGAPS show a less hostile
environment...but even they take 48 hr or more to show conditions
that might allow strengthening. Thus...the intensity forecast will
continue to call for gradual decay. There is a possibility that
convective bursts could cause some temporary strengthening in the
shear environment.
Franklin has shifted farther east than previously forecast...so a
tropical storm watch is being issued for Bermuda at this time.

Forecaster Beven


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 26/0300z 30.7n 68.2w 35 kt
12hr VT 26/1200z 31.3n 67.8w 35 kt
24hr VT 27/0000z 32.0n 67.5w 35 kt
36hr VT 27/1200z 33.0n 67.3w 35 kt
48hr VT 28/0000z 34.0n 67.2w 30 kt
72hr VT 29/0000z 36.5n 65.5w 25 kt...dissipating
96hr VT 30/0000z 40.5n 60.5w 25 kt...remnant low
120hr VT 31/0000z...dissipated


$$

[Coredesat]

Advisories now every 3 hours:

000
WTNT31 KNHC 260848
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST TUE JUL 26 2005

...FRANKLIN MOVING VERY SLOWLY NEAR BERMUDA...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 68.0 WEST OR ABOUT
200 MILES... 320 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

FRANKLIN IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5
MPH... 7 KM/HR. A SLOW AND SOMETIMES ERRATIC MOTION IN A GENERAL
NORTHWARD DIRECTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES... 220
KM... MAINLY TO THE EAST FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...31.3 N... 68.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
AST.

FORECASTER KNABB

[artist]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 261144
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM AST TUE JUL 26 2005

...FRANKLIN MEANDERING SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 68.1 WEST OR ABOUT
205 MILES... 335 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

FRANKLIN IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...
7 KM/HR. A SLOW AND SOMETIMES ERRATIC MOTION IN A GENERAL
NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES... 220
KM... MAINLY EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...31.6 N... 68.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$

[artist]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 261434
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST TUE JUL 26 2005

...DISORGANIZED FRANKLIN MEANDERING NORTHEASTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 67.9 WEST OR ABOUT
185 MILES... 295 KM... WEST OF BERMUDA.

FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH
... 9 KM/HR. A SLOW AND SOMETIMES ERRATIC MOTION IN A GENERAL
NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...32.0 N... 67.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$

[artist]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 261433
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF FRANKLIN HAS BECOME EXPOSED AGAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST OF AN AREA OF RAPIDLY WEAKENING CONVECTION. THE INTENSITY
IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 35 KT BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATE
OF 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SEVERAL 30 KT UNFLAGGED WIND VECTORS IN THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AS NOTED IN A 1042Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE WAS NOT SAMPLED BY THE QUIKSCAT
SATELLITE. HOWEVER...SINCE THAT TIME...CLOUD TOPS IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE 35-KT INTENSITY MAY BE A
LITTLE GENEROUS. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS RESTRICTED IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

THE MOTION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN 060/04...BUT THE TREND
FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS SHOULD BE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
SO AN INITIAL MOTION OF 030/05 HAS BEEN ASSIGNED FOR THIS ADVISORY.
FRANKLIN MAY MOVE ERRATICALLY...INCLUDING SEVERAL WOBBLES...OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THE OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. AFTER THAT...THE MID-LATITUDE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE UPPER-MIDWESTERN U.S. BY 48 HOURS...THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO
INDUCE A FASTER MOTION TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST...UNTIL
FRANKLIN BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE FRONATL SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK... MAINLY DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION
...AND IS A ALSO LITTLE EAST OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

FRANKLIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO THERE MAY BE SOME
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING AND FRANKLIN COULD BECOME A DEPRESSION. BY
36-48 HOURS...THOUGH...THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BRIEFLY
WEAKEN...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST RE-INTENSIFICATION TO
OCCUR BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES AGAIN AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY ABSORBS THE CYCLONE. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY FORECASTS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/1500Z 32.0N 67.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 27/0000Z 32.8N 67.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 27/1200Z 33.8N 67.7W 35 KT
36HR VT 28/0000Z 35.2N 67.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 28/1200Z 37.1N 66.7W 40 KT
72HR VT 29/1200Z 40.0N 63.5W 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 30/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM AST TUE JUL 26 2005

...FRANKLIN MOVING ERRATICALLY TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST OR ABOUT
210 MILES... 340 KM... WEST OF BERMUDA.

FRANKLIN IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...
9 KM/HR. SLOW AND SOMETIMES ERRATIC MOTION...INCLUDING SMALL
LOOPS...BUT IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD DIRECTION...CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...32.3 N... 68.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

[Hurricaneman]

Franklin is holding steady

[wxman57]

Looks weaker than yesterday. Probably 20-30 mph most sectors. Just 2 thunderstorms 90 mles southeast of the exposed low-level swirl. All estimates are 2.0 or less - still a depression but a weakening one. Also it has been making another cyclonic loop for the past 2-3 hours.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/franklin42.gif">

[Brent]

I think that is the most pathetic tropical storm I've ever seen.

[Hurricaneman]

No, Grace still is imo

[HURAKAN]

FRANKLINSTEIN?!?!?

[mike18xx]

FRANKLINSTEIN?!?!?

IT'S ALIVE!!!

[Guest]

New.

Looking forward to reading and writing here.

Mike

[cycloneye]

New.

Looking forward to reading and writing here.

Mike

Welcome aboard and enjoy.Any question that you may have dont hesitate and ask because we will provide you with the answer.

[Derek Ortt]

and I did not see any QS vectors of 30KT anywhere near the storm. I did see some about 300NM away in the SW quad though

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST TUE JUL 26 2005

...FRANKLIN WOBBLING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 68.2 WEST OR ABOUT
200 MILES... 320 KM... WEST OF BERMUDA.

FRANKLIN IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR
6 MPH...9 KM/HR. SLOW AND SOMETIMES ERRATIC MOTION...INCLUDING
SMALL LOOPS...BUT IN A NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION...CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...A SHIP LOCATED ABOUT 80
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 36 MPH
...WHILE A GUST TO 37 MPH WAS REPORTED ON BERMUDA IN A RAIN SQUALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM...MAINLY EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...32.3 N... 68.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART