TS Harvey Advisories

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 1


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 02, 2005



while the circulation center is perhaps not real well defined in
satellite imagery...the imagery does show a number of small swirls
rotating around a common center. This is also not the most
tropical of tropical cyclones. However...the center is close
enough to the deep convection...within 60 nmi...and the upper low
to the southwest is far enough away to consider this system more
tropical than subtropical. The depression also lies slightly on
the symmetric warm core side of bob hart's FSU cyclone phase space
analysis diagrams. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on
earlier ship reports of 25 kt that were outside of the deep
convection.

The initial motion is estimated to be 010/11. The depression is
located to the northeast of an upper-level low that is displacing
the convection to the north and northeast of the center. This
asymmetry may contribute to some reformation or apparent motion of
the center northeastward. There are a couple of weak 500 mb
short-wave troughs in the westerlies that should help to nudge the
cyclone northeastward over the next couple of days. Model guidance
is in rather poor agreement and of limited help. The GFS develops
a possibly spurious second low close to the depression that
complicates interpretation of its forecast track. The UKMET
appears to be initialized too far to the south and the NOGAPS too
far to the west. The official forecast is primarily a blend of the
GFDL and medium BAM models.

The trend today has been for the circulation center and deep
convection to become somewhat better aligned...and if the cyclone
can get a little farther away from the upper low it would be in a
more favorable environment for strengthening. Global models
indicate that this upper low is going to slide eastward and follow
the cyclone. If this happens...vertical wind shear could increase
again. The official forecast allows for a modest window of
opportunity for some strengthening.
If the depression becomes a tropical storm as forecast...it would be
the earliest 8th tropical storm on record. The current record is
August 15th.

Forecaster Franklin


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 02/2100z 28.5n 68.7w 30 kt
12hr VT 03/0600z 30.3n 68.3w 40 kt
24hr VT 03/1800z 32.0n 66.7w 45 kt
36hr VT 04/0600z 33.3n 64.7w 45 kt
48hr VT 04/1800z 33.8n 62.2w 40 kt
72hr VT 05/1800z 34.0n 57.0w 35 kt
96hr VT 06/1800z 34.5n 54.0w 30 kt
120hr VT 07/1800z 35.0n 52.0w 30 kt



Discussion came out first.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

92L has done it.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082005
2100Z TUE AUG 02 2005

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 68.7W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 175SE 0SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 68.7W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 68.8W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 30.3N 68.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 32.0N 66.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 25SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 33.3N 64.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 25SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 33.8N 62.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 25SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 34.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 25SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 34.5N 54.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 35.0N 52.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 68.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Tropical Depression Eight Advisory Number 1


Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on August 02, 2005



...Tropical depression forms...warning issued for Bermuda...
At 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...the Bermuda Weather Service has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. A Tropical Storm Warning means
that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
within the next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 5 PM AST...2100z...the center of Tropical Depression Eight was
located near latitude 28.5 north... longitude 68.7 west or about
350 miles... 565 km... southwest of Bermuda.

The depression is moving toward the north near 13 mph
...20 km/hr. A turn to the north-northeast is expected during the
next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm
tonight.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb...29.80 inches.

Rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are possible in Bermuda in
association with the depression.
Repeating the 5 PM AST position...28.5 N... 68.7 W. Movement
toward...north near 13 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1009 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 PM AST followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 PM AST.

Forecaster Franklin

[senorpepr]

08L data is now populating on S2K's Worldwide Tropical Update page, to include satellite floaters and advisories.

Right now, however, the individual links for visible and infrared satellites for both Tropical Depression Eight-L and Typhoon Matsa are not working. In addition, the news report link for TD Eight-L is also not working. (I was in a bit of a rush to push out the information before I left home and since data wasn't loading, I couldn't check it) This will be fixed later this evening.

[WindRunner]

I hate to use the 10% line on the wind chart, but that line hits cat1 in 24 hrs - just something to think about

[PTrackerLA]

And the busy season continues...

[HURAKAN]

When will RECON investigate TD 8?

[Windy]

except for possibly Bermuda....its a fish!...so whats all the excitement?

I find it exciting because it's another notch in this year's handle without it imapacting many people. (Bermuda is more than able to deal with a TS).

No deaths + more storms = great way to break records!

And I still want to see an Alpha.

[senorpepr]

When will RECON investigate TD 8?

Mission I: AF fix flight
Take off: 03/9:30am EDT
Time on target: 03/1:00pm EDT to 03/5:30pm EDT

Mission II: AF fix flight
Take off: 03/8:45pm EDT
Time on target: 04/1:00am EDT to 04/5:30am EDT

Outlook for succeeding day: possible fix at 04/2:00pm EDT if system has not passed Bermuda.

[WindRunner]

those things must carry a ton of fuel . . . eleven and a half hours with 4.5 flying through a TC

[gkrangers]

those things must carry a ton of fuel . . . eleven and a half hours with 4.5 flying through a TC

Bout 13 hours worth.

[EDR1222]

Here we go again! At least it is likely to be a fish or maybe just a tropical storm for Bermuda to deal with. Looks like they should be ok however.

[wxman57]

When will RECON investigate TD 8?

A better question would be SHOULD recon investigate TD 8 tomorrow afternoon? It's obvious that this system is not going to threaten any U.S. interests, so what benefit to the U.S. would a recon mission provide? Will Bermuda pay for recon to fly out tomorrow? Why should U.S. tax dollars go to a recon mission? If the storm continues heading for the U.K., as some storms as tropical as TD 8 is now have, should the U.S. continue flying recon into the storm, perhaps based out of Bermuda or the U.K.?

Even putting aside the argument that TD 8 is clearly no threat to the U.S., and a recon mission would not benefit the U.S., would it even help Bermuda? Bermuda is already under a TS warning, expecting TS force winds within 24 hours. By the time the recon plane got there, the center would not be very far southwest of Bermuda, and the island could already be in tropical storm-force wind. So could a recon mission tomorrow afternoon provide any essential information for making a good weather forecast for Bermuda? In any case, the time for the recon mission was today (if at all), not after TS force winds may already be hitting Bermuda.

[johngaltfla]

Whew. We don't need them yet. Let Harvey be a Fish.

In two weeks that's when I think we'll all be praying for fish like Cycloneeye and others have forecast.

[WeatherEmperor]

Whew. We don't need them yet. Let Harvey be a Fish.

In two weeks that's when I think we'll all be praying for fish like Cycloneeye and others have forecast.

Hey, is that Dutch for "plate"?

<RICKY>

[LAwxrgal]

Okay, I missed something here. Which of our three invests has become TD8 this afternoon?

[cycloneye]

Okay, I missed something here. Which of our three invests has become TD8 this afternoon?

92L.

[LAwxrgal]

Okay, I missed something here. Which of our three invests has become TD8 this afternoon?

K gotcha. Thanks Cycloneye!

[Shoshana]

Wonder where the advisory is...

'shana