TS Harvey Advisories

[clfenwi]

WTNT33 KNHC 030546
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM AST WED AUG 03 2005

...DEPRESSION MOVING ERRATICALLY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM AST...0600Z... THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE
68.6 WEST OR ABOUT 305 MILES... 490 KM... SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING OR NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS BUT A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION NEAR 9 MPH... 15
KM/HR...IS EXPECTED TO RESUME SOON...FOLLOWED A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION.

REPEATING THE 2 AM AST POSITION...29.5 N... 68.6 W. MOVEMENT
...NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The LLC is becoming very well defined. The convection is starting to wrap arond the western wide. With some banding forming over the southeast side. The recon will likely find a 50 mph tropical storm.

I'm sorry but this is no weak tropical depression

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Back to tropical
03/0545 UTC 29.4N 68.6W T2.0/2.0 08

[johngaltfla]

It does appear that 08L "NONAME" is getting it's act together....

[P.K.]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 030846
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2005

THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE CURVATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE
BAND OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS USING A SHEAR OR
CURVED BAND PATTERN ARE 2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB..AND 1.5 FROM AFWA.
3- AND 6-HOURLY AVERAGE OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN CIMSS ARE NEAR 2.0. THERE ARE NO SHIP OBSERVATIONS OF
SURFACE WINDS TO HELP ESTIMATE THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE. BASED
ON THE SATELLITE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS NOT BEING UPGRADED AT THIS
TIME. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE. 200 MB GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
DIMINISH...BUT THE GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS MODERATE SHEAR CONTINUING TO
AFFECT THE DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HISTORICALLY...
TROPICAL CYCLONES AT HIGHER LATITUDES HAVE BEEN MORE RESILIENT TO
SHEAR THAN THOSE IN THE DEEP TROPICS. THIS IS PROBABLY WHY THE
STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL SHIPS MODEL PREDICTS STRENGTHENING. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS MODEST
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/8. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE NEXT...UPSTREAM...SHORTWAVE
SHOULD BE NEARING THE LONGITUDE OF THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH NEITHER OF THESE TROUGHS HAVE SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO PULL
THE DEPRESSION/STORM INTO THE MID-LATITUDES...THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO
STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A NORTHEASTERLY TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
TRACK OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A SLIGHTLY
BETTER INITIALIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION THAN THEY DID EARLIER...AND
THEIR TRACK FORECASTS ARE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48
HOURS...BUT IT IS FASTER AND TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST AT 3-5 DAYS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATEST DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS AT 3-5 DAYS IS EVEN FASTER AND FARTHER TO THE LEFT
OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0900Z 29.9N 68.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 30.8N 67.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 32.1N 65.3W 45 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 33.1N 62.7W 40 KT
48HR VT 05/0600Z 33.7N 60.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 06/0600Z 34.5N 55.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 07/0600Z 36.0N 51.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 08/0600Z 38.0N 47.0W 30 KT

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
WTNT33 KNHC 030841
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST WED AUG 03 2005

...DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 68.5 WEST OR ABOUT
275 MILES... 440 KM... SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH
...15 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...29.9 N... 68.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
AST.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$

[wxman57]

There are a number of ship reports around the depression. Highest observation I can find from 00Z-10Z is 25 kts. Although the system still looks more like a cold-core low, there are thunderstorms developing near the center now. I think it'll become Harvey today.

What caught my eye more was the system at 11N/35W, though.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM AST WED AUG 03 2005

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 68.2 WEST OR ABOUT
250 MILES... 405 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH
...17 KM/HR...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION.

REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...30.3 N... 68.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[WindRunner]

They sure are stubborn. Looks good enough to upgrade for me.

I guess they want to see some more convection on the south.

[Thunder44]

Dvorak says it's a subtropical storm:

03/1145 UTC 30.3N 68.3W ST2.5/2.5 08

Of course if TPC decides to upgrade it it will be classifed as a tropical storm.

[cycloneye]

Dvorak says it's a subtropical storm:

03/1145 UTC 30.3N 68.3W ST2.5/2.5 08

Of course if TPC decides to upgrade it it will be classifed as a tropical storm.

Now let's see what the models say in terms of intensity.

[Thunder44]

Ship report just south of the center reported 35kt sustained winds from the west at 12z or 8am EDT.

H3VT S 1200 28.50 -69.30 125 257 270 35.0

[Thunder44]

741
WHXX01 KWBC 031252
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM EIGHT (AL082005) ON 20050803 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050803 1200 050804 0000 050804 1200 050805 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.4N 68.2W 32.1N 66.3W 33.4N 63.4W 34.8N 59.9W
BAMM 30.4N 68.2W 31.6N 66.5W 32.1N 64.3W 32.1N 62.5W
A98E 30.4N 68.2W 32.0N 66.6W 33.0N 64.1W 34.3N 61.7W
LBAR 30.4N 68.2W 31.8N 66.5W 33.2N 64.4W 34.8N 61.8W
SHIP 35KTS 39KTS 45KTS 48KTS
DSHP 35KTS 39KTS 45KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050805 1200 050806 1200 050807 1200 050808 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 36.7N 56.1W 38.5N 48.5W 41.7N 43.3W 45.1N 31.6W
BAMM 32.4N 61.7W 34.1N 60.8W 36.2N 56.4W 36.1N 51.8W
A98E 35.5N 58.9W 38.3N 55.0W 42.9N 47.4W 49.7N 29.4W
LBAR 36.2N 58.8W 40.5N 51.8W 45.3N 41.8W .0N .0W
SHIP 49KTS 46KTS 41KTS 33KTS
DSHP 49KTS 46KTS 41KTS 33KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.4N LONCUR = 68.2W DIRCUR = 30DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 28.9N LONM12 = 68.7W DIRM12 = 8DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 26.8N LONM24 = 69.2W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 45NM RD34NW = 0NM

[storms in NC]

I was just looking at the satellite IR and my eyes still see it going North. But it maybe just me.

[gkrangers]

928
WTNT33 KNHC 031431
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST WED AUG 03 2005

...DEPRESSION BECOMES EIGHTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 68.0 WEST OR ABOUT
215 MILES... 345 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH
...17 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE
INVESTIGATING HARVEY THIS AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH HARVEY.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...30.8 N... 68.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[wxwatcher91]

Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 4


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 03, 2005



while the cyclone still has subtropical characteristics...
including the large band well removed from the center to the north
and east...the definition of the circulation center has improved
since yesterday. A Quikscat pass at 1036z indicated a large area
of unflagged 30 kt winds...with quite a few unflagged 35 kt vectors
in the relatively dry southeastern quadrant. Storm intensity is
also supported by a 35 kt report from ship w6sot at 12z near the
center...and by a t2.5 Dvorak classification from TAFB. A
reconnaissance aircraft will be investigating Harvey this
afternoon.
An upper-level low just to the south of Harvey is producing easterly
shear and subsidence in the cyclone's eastern quadrant. Global
model guidance indicates that the influence of the upper low will
diminish...but the guidance also shows moderate westerly shear will
overtake the cyclone over the next few days. There could be a brief
period in a day or so where the shear relaxes and permits some
additional strengthening. The official intensity forecast is a
blend of the SHIPS and GFDL guidance.

The initial motion estimate is 030/9. There has been little change
to the track forecast thinking. A mid-tropospheric shortwave trough
currently near the Canadian Maritimes is expected to move ahead of
the tropical cyclone and the next upstream shortwave should be
nearing the longitude of the cyclone in about 72 hours. Although
neither of these troughs have sufficient amplitude to pull Harvey
into the mid-latitudes...the guidance indicates that there will be
enough west-southwesterly flow to steer the tropical cyclone on a
northeasterly to east-northeasterly track over the forecast period.
Track guidance continues to come into better agreement and the
official forecast is close to the previous advisory and the
dynamical model consensus.

Harvey is the earliest-forming eighth tropical storm on record. In
those years that have had at least eight storms...which is only
about half of all seasons since 1851...the mean date of formation
for the eighth storm is September 29th.
Forecaster Franklin


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 03/1500z 30.8n 68.0w 35 kt
12hr VT 04/0000z 31.8n 66.6w 40 kt
24hr VT 04/1200z 32.6n 64.3w 45 kt
36hr VT 05/0000z 33.3n 61.7w 40 kt
48hr VT 05/1200z 34.0n 59.5w 35 kt
72hr VT 06/1200z 35.5n 56.0w 35 kt
96hr VT 07/1200z 38.0n 51.0w 30 kt
120hr VT 08/1200z 41.0n 45.0w 30 kt


$$

[dwg71]

Dud of a storm... 1933 had about 8 of them, we have had a couple already. 45KTS tops. Subtropical in nature as well..

[DESTRUCTION5]

Harvey is the earliest-forming eighth tropical storm on record. In
those years that have had at least eight storms...which is only
about half of all seasons since 1851...the mean date of formation
for the eighth storm is September 29th.
Forecaster Franklin

Friggin Amazing!

[Andy_L]

Dud of a storm... 1933 had about 8 of them, we have had a couple already. 45KTS tops. Subtropical in nature as well..

YOU might consider it a dud....but i suspect those in Bermuda do not.

[hurricanefloyd5]

wtg harvey!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[PTrackerLA]

8 named storms on August 3. Simply amazing...