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#141 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 03, 2005 9:35 pm

WTNT33 KNHC 040231
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST WED AUG 03 2005

...HARVEY IS NOT STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH
INDICATES THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST OR ABOUT
80 MILES... 130 KM...SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH ...20
KM/HR. THIS MOTION WILL BRING HARVEY VERY CLOSE TO BERMUDA EARLY
THURSDAY.

HARVEY HAS NOT STRENGTHENED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH HARVEY.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...31.5 N... 65.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
AST.

FORECASTER AVILA
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#142 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 03, 2005 9:37 pm

065
WTNT43 KNHC 040232
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2005

SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT IMPROVED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...IN FACT...WITH LITTLE CONVECTION IT LOOKS LIKE A SKELETON.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ONLY BETWEEN 35 AND
45 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE THE TYPICAL PATTERN OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT DESPITE SUCH POOR SATELLITE PRESENTATION...
RECON MEASURED 62 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF
998 MB EARLIER TODAY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEN KEPT AT 50
KNOTS UNTIL THE NEXT PLANE REACHES THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. THERE
IS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS FOR
HARVEY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE SINCE SHEAR IS NOT NORMALLY A
DETRIMENT TO NON-PURE TROPICAL CYCLONES LIKE HARVEY. THE CHANCES OF
BECOMING A HURRICANE BEFORE PASSING NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA ARE VERY
SMALL. AS A PRECAUTION...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS KEPT FOR
BERMUDA...TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION HISTORICAL ERRORS IN INTENSITY
FORECASTS. HARVEY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN 36 HOURS OR SO.

HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST ABOUT 11 KNOTS. THE
CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW WHICH IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST...BUT THE STEERING WILL LIKELY VARY IN SPEED AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE BY THE AREA. HARVEY IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AGAIN
AS SOON AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA IN A DAY OR
SO. THEN...ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL ACCELERATE THE
WESTERLY FLOW AND HARVEY WILL INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED IN ABOUT 3
DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

NOTE: A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER HARVEY...JUST RECEIVED...SUGGESTS THAT
WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE LESS THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. WE WOULD
RATHER WAIT FOR THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE BEFORE WE LOWER THE
INTENSITY...IF NECESSARY.

FORECASTER AVILA/BERG

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0300Z 31.5N 65.8W 50 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 32.1N 64.1W 55 KT
24HR VT 05/0000Z 32.8N 62.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 05/1200Z 33.0N 60.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 06/0000Z 33.5N 58.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 07/0000Z 35.0N 55.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 08/0000Z 38.0N 51.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 09/0000Z 41.0N 45.0W 30 KT
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#143 Postby gkrangers » Wed Aug 03, 2005 9:41 pm

Good discussion.
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#144 Postby Swimdude » Wed Aug 03, 2005 9:52 pm

Very good discussion, indeed. I don't think the NHC believes this will become a hurricane. Maybe we'll have another 70mph TS. Oh boy!
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#145 Postby gkrangers » Wed Aug 03, 2005 9:57 pm

Swimdude wrote:Very good discussion, indeed. I don't think the NHC believes this will become a hurricane. Maybe we'll have another 70mph TS. Oh boy!
Well..60MPH may have been the peak. It is likely weaker than that tonight, as NHC discussed.
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#146 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 04, 2005 1:15 am

000
WTNT33 KNHC 040553
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM AST THU AUG 04 2005

...HARVEY JUST SOUTH OF BERMUDA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH
INDICATES THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.8 WEST OR ABOUT
30 MILES... 50 KM...SOUTH OF BERMUDA.

HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH ...20
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WILL PASS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE ISLAND LATER THIS MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE STORM.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH HARVEY.

REPEATING THE 2 AM AST POSITION...31.9 N... 64.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$



The convection is forming back over the center. Its center is also becoming better defined.
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#147 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 04, 2005 3:41 am

Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 8


Statement as of 5:00 am AST on August 04, 2005


...Harvey passing just to the south-southeast of Bermuda...
At 5 am AST...0900z...the Hurricane Watch for Bermuda is
discontinued. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for
Bermuda. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions are expected within the next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 5 am AST...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 31.8 north... longitude 64.6 west or about 35
miles... 60 km... south-southeast of Bermuda.
Harvey is moving toward the east-northeast near 13 mph
...20 km/hr...and a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected
today and tonight. On this track...Harvey will be moving away from
Bermuda later this morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph... 95 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 24
hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles
...140 km from the center....mainly to the southeast.
An Air Force hurricane hunter plane reported a minimum central
pressure of 995 mb...29.38 inches.
Additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are expected over
Bermuda.
Repeating the 5 am AST position...31.8 N... 64.6 W. Movement
toward...east-northeast near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 60
mph. Minimum central pressure... 995 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 am AST followed by the next complete advisory at 11 am
AST.
Forecaster Pasch

$$
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#148 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 04, 2005 3:44 am

Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 8


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 04, 2005


Air Force recon found a lower central pressure...995 mb...
but so far the highest 850 mb flight level winds measured by the
aircraft do not support an increase in strength. Current intensity
is held at 50 kt. Deep convection associated with the tropical
cyclone has increased over the past few hours. Although Harvey is
being affected by about 20 kt of west-southwesterly shear...it is
holding its own...as is typical of these higher latitude systems.
Some slight increase in strength is possible over the next day or
so...but significant intensification is unlikely. The cyclone
should be weakening over cooler waters in the latter part of the
forecast period. The GFS model shows Harvey's circulation becoming
elongated in 3-5 days...suggesting that it may lose tropical
characteristics late in the period.

Harvey is moving at about 070/11. A shortwave trough near 60w is
moving away from the storm so the steering current will probably
weaken over the next couple of days...until another approaching
trough accelerates the west-southwesterly flow later in the period.
This next trough...however...will not have much amplitude so it
seems unlikely to be able to cause a big increase in Harvey's
forward speed. The consensus of the track guidance is generally
slower than in the earlier runs...so the official forecast is a
little slower than the previous one. This is a compromise between
the U.K. Met and GFS...which are significantly slower than my
forecast...and the NOGAPS and GFDL...which are considerably faster.

Forecaster Pasch


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 04/0900z 31.8n 64.6w 50 kt
12hr VT 04/1800z 32.2n 62.8w 55 kt
24hr VT 05/0600z 32.6n 60.8w 55 kt
36hr VT 05/1800z 32.9n 59.5w 50 kt
48hr VT 06/0600z 33.3n 58.3w 45 kt
72hr VT 07/0600z 35.0n 55.5w 40 kt
96hr VT 08/0600z 37.5n 51.5w 35 kt
120hr VT 09/0600z 40.0n 47.0w 30 kt
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#149 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 04, 2005 5:40 am

Harvey is looking much better now.
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#150 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 04, 2005 6:36 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM AST THU AUG 04 2005

...HARVEY BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 63.9 WEST OR ABOUT 55
MILES... 90 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ON THIS TRACK...HARVEY WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER....MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
BERMUDA.

REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...31.9 N... 63.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 996 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA
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#151 Postby EDR1222 » Thu Aug 04, 2005 7:28 am

Looks like Bermuda is getting the worst of it right now. Any reports coming out of there?
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#152 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 04, 2005 7:33 am

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY (AL082005) ON 20050804 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050804 1200 050805 0000 050805 1200 050806 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.9N 63.9W 32.8N 60.5W 33.8N 57.1W 34.6N 53.7W
BAMM 31.9N 63.9W 32.0N 61.5W 32.1N 60.2W 32.4N 59.7W
A98E 31.9N 63.9W 32.7N 61.5W 33.3N 58.8W 35.1N 57.8W
LBAR 31.9N 63.9W 32.7N 61.3W 34.0N 58.9W 35.3N 56.4W
SHIP 50KTS 53KTS 55KTS 56KTS
DSHP 50KTS 53KTS 55KTS 56KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050806 1200 050807 1200 050808 1200 050809 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 35.1N 51.7W 37.0N 49.0W 39.0N 44.7W 40.9N 38.3W
BAMM 32.8N 59.8W 34.0N 58.3W 33.9N 54.9W 33.3N 50.8W
A98E 36.4N 56.4W 39.9N 50.5W 43.2N 40.7W 41.5N 33.3W
LBAR 36.5N 53.9W 40.5N 49.1W 43.5N 41.9W 42.3N 34.4W
SHIP 54KTS 48KTS 44KTS 36KTS
DSHP 54KTS 48KTS 44KTS 36KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.9N LONCUR = 63.9W DIRCUR = 70DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 31.3N LONM12 = 66.4W DIRM12 = 72DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 30.4N LONM24 = 68.2W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 996MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 45NM RD34NW = 0NM
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#153 Postby msbee » Thu Aug 04, 2005 7:59 am

EDR1222 wrote:Looks like Bermuda is getting the worst of it right now. Any reports coming out of there?


here is a report this morning on stormcarib from Bermuda.

http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/bermuda.shtml

looks like they didn't have much problems at all luckily
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#154 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 04, 2005 9:32 am

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082005
1500Z THU AUG 04 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA BUT WILL
LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 63.1W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 45NE 100SE 45SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 100SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 63.1W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 63.9W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 32.2N 61.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 60SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 32.6N 59.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 33.0N 58.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 33.5N 57.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 35.0N 54.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 38.0N 51.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 41.0N 45.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 63.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA
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#155 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 04, 2005 9:33 am

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2005

THERE HAS BEEN A REMARKABLE TRANSFORMATION IN THE CLOUD PATTERN
SINCE YESTERDAY AND MOST OF THE HYBRID OR SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE ARE NO LONGER PRESENT. HARVEY
LOOKS FULLY TROPICAL TODAY WITH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. CONSEQUENTLY T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED AND
ARE 3.0 AND 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED TO 55 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
A VERY MODEST INCREASE IN THE WINDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IT
WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN FORECAST FOR HARVEY
TO BECOME A HURRICANE. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD
BEGIN AS THE CYCLONE MOVES TOWARD COOLER WATERS.

HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST ABOUT 12 KNOTS...AWAY
FROM BERMUDA. AS THE SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH OF HARVEY MOVES
EASTWARD...THE STEERING CURRENTS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AND HARVEY
SHOULD DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.
THEREAFTER...A NEW APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL FORCE THE CYCLONE TO
SPEED UP AGAIN. THIS SCENARIO IS SIMILAR TO MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 32.0N 63.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 32.2N 61.7W 60 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 32.6N 59.7W 60 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 33.0N 58.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 06/1200Z 33.5N 57.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 07/1200Z 35.0N 54.9W 40 KT
96HR VT 08/1200Z 38.0N 51.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 09/1200Z 41.0N 45.0W 25 KT



Hmmm Harvey still can become a hurricane before it reaches cooler waters.
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#156 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 04, 2005 9:53 am

Harvey is trying to make it to hurricane status and not fall in the list of "almost" that didn't make it/
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#157 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 04, 2005 10:07 am

Also because Harvey was subtropical yesterday. It becomes the first none tropical system to develop into a tropical cyclone.
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#158 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 04, 2005 11:17 am

Image

Harvey looks better and better in every new picture. We may have a hurricane by 5 pm.
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#159 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Aug 04, 2005 1:13 pm

Harvey has really gotten his act together. I think he will make hurricane status.
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#160 Postby Scorpion » Thu Aug 04, 2005 1:14 pm

Wow that outflow is beautiful.
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