TS Harvey Advisories

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 33
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#161 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 04, 2005 1:48 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 119092
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#162 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 04, 2005 3:38 pm

WTNT33 KNHC 042031
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU AUG 04 2005

...HARVEY EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR A FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.8 WEST OR ABOUT
175 MILES... 280 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA.

HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...A SMALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY WOULD BRING HARVEY
TO HURRICANE STATUS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...32.4 N... 61.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 119092
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#163 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 04, 2005 3:43 pm

TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2005

HARVEY CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL-ORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN WITH MARKED
CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDS AND GOOD OUTFLOW. T-NUMBERS SUPPORT AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. THE SHEAR MAY RELAX SOME...AND HARVEY
COULD EXPERIENCE A MODEST STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE IT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS.

HARVEY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ON THIS GENERAL TRACK...BUT WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...SINCE
THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME VERY LIGHT.
BEYOND 3 DAYS...A NEW SHORTWAVE WILL ACCELERATE THE WESTERLY FLOW
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN HARVEY'S FORWARD SPEED. BOTH THE
SHORT TERM DECREASE IN SPEED AND THE LATER ACCELERATION ARE
SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/2100Z 32.4N 61.8W 55 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 32.7N 60.1W 60 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 33.2N 58.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 06/0600Z 34.0N 57.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 06/1800Z 34.5N 56.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 07/1800Z 37.0N 53.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 08/1800Z 40.5N 49.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 09/1800Z 43.0N 44.0W 25 KT

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 119092
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#164 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 04, 2005 9:40 pm

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST THU AUG 04 2005

...HARVEY REMAINS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.1 WEST OR ABOUT
275 MILES... 440 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA.

HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...32.5 N... 60.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN/MAINELLI

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Swimdude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2270
Joined: Mon Jul 26, 2004 11:57 am
Location: Houston, TX

#165 Postby Swimdude » Thu Aug 04, 2005 9:51 pm

Darn you, Harvey, if you're the FOURTH 70-mph TS of the season...
0 likes   

Lori
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 149
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 6:10 pm
Location: Destin Florida

#166 Postby Lori » Fri Aug 05, 2005 4:01 am

000
WTNT33 KNHC 050834
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST FRI AUG 05 2005

...HARVEY MOVING OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC...
...ONLY A THREAT TO SHIPPING INTERESTS...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 59.0 WEST OR ABOUT
340 MILES... 545 KM... EAST OF BERMUDA.

HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR.
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...32.5 N... 59.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$
0 likes   

Lori
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 149
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 6:10 pm
Location: Destin Florida

#167 Postby Lori » Fri Aug 05, 2005 4:03 am

000
WTNT43 KNHC 050849
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE HARVEY IS
EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR...
WHICH HAS CAUSED THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO LAG BEHIND TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. THE OVERALL
CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS ALSO BECOME LESS DISTINCT...ALTHOUGH A BURST
OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED OVER AND JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
SURFACE CENTER DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE INTENSITY IS
BEING MAINTAINED AT 55 KT BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF T3.5/55 KT
FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND A COUPLE OF 55 KT UNFLAGGED WIND
VECTORS NOTED IN A 04/2228Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 070/08. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS
ADJUSTED ABOUT 30 NMI SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITIONS AND FORECAST
TRACK. OTHER THAN THAT...THE FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PAST FEW ADVISORIES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE
NORTH OF HARVEY THAT HAD BEEN MOVING THE CYCLONE ALONG AT A DECENT
CLIP HAS NOW LIFTED OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A WEAKENING OF THE STEERING FLOW.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD AND SLOWLY LIFT
HARVEY NORTHEASTWARD BY 36 HOURS...WITH GRADUAL ACCELERATION OVER
COOLER WATER EXPECTED AFTER THAT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY 24
HOURS...SO LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED BEFORE THEN.
AFTERWARDS...HOWEVER...THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
TO 30 KT OR MORE BY 96 HOURS AS HARVEY ALSO MOVES OVER SUB-26C
SSTS. THIS SHOULD BRING ABOUT STEADY WEAKENING AND POSSIBLE
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 96 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0900Z 32.5N 59.0W 55 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 32.9N 57.9W 55 KT
24HR VT 06/0600Z 33.5N 57.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 06/1800Z 34.6N 56.1W 50 KT
48HR VT 07/0600Z 36.0N 55.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 08/0600Z 39.1N 50.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 09/0600Z 42.5N 44.0W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 10/0600Z 47.0N 34.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$


0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 119092
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#168 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 05, 2005 9:45 am

707
WTNT33 KNHC 051440
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST FRI AUG 05 2005

...HARVEY WEAKENING AND DRIFTING EASTWARD...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.2 WEST OR ABOUT
385 MILES... 620 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA.

HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...32.4 N... 58.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 119092
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#169 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 05, 2005 3:35 pm

WTNT43 KNHC 052026
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005

HARVEY CONTINUES AS A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH MOST OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. IT APPEARS ON
SATELLITE THAT HARVEY IS LOCATED AT THE TAIL OF A FRONTAL ZONE.
HARVEY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO SHEAR IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THEREAFTER...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW INTENSIFICATION AND AN
EXPANSION OF THE CIRCULATION AS A NEW MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES. THEREFORE...HARVEY WILL LIKELY BECOME A STRONG
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC
DURING THIS PERIOD.

HARVEY HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD ABOUT 4 TO 6 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.
THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT WITH A LITTLE
RIDGING DEVELOPING TO THE EAST...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE TO
THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...HARVEY SHOULD
THEN INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/2100Z 32.6N 57.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 32.9N 56.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 34.1N 55.5W 30 KT
36HR VT 07/0600Z 36.1N 54.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 07/1800Z 38.0N 53.0W 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 08/1800Z 42.0N 47.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 09/1800Z 45.9N 38.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 10/1800Z 49.0N 29.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:

#170 Postby P.K. » Fri Aug 05, 2005 5:25 pm

Starting to look interesting this one. Need to keep a close eye on this given some of the models.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 119092
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#171 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 05, 2005 5:28 pm

P.K. wrote:Starting to look interesting this one. Need to keep a close eye on this given some of the models.


Yes P.K watch it there as it can grow into a big extratropical storm for your area.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Coredesat

#172 Postby Coredesat » Fri Aug 05, 2005 9:40 pm

000
WTNT33 KNHC 060235
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST FRI AUG 05 2005

...HARVEY CONTINUES SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST OR ABOUT
455 MILES... 735 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA.

HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...32.4 N... 57.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN/MAINELLI


$$
0 likes   

Coredesat

#173 Postby Coredesat » Sat Aug 06, 2005 3:55 am

Image
0 likes   

Coredesat

#174 Postby Coredesat » Sat Aug 06, 2005 4:08 am

000
WTNT33 KNHC 060855
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SAT AUG 06 2005

...HARVEY MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 56.6 WEST OR ABOUT
480 MILES... 775 KM... EAST OF BERMUDA.

HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTHEAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER
TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...33.3 N... 56.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$
0 likes   

Coredesat

#175 Postby Coredesat » Sat Aug 06, 2005 4:08 am

000
WTNT43 KNHC 060901
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT AUG 06 2005

A DEEP BURST OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER AND NORTHEAST OF THE
PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 45 KT...WHICH SUPPORTED BY AN
EARLIER QUIKSCAT OVERPASS THAT CONTAINED 40-KT AND 50-KT UNFLAGGED
WIND VECTORS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/06. HARVEY HAS TURNED TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...BUT THE OVERALL
FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IS STILL TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OVER COOLER WATER AND GRADUALLY
COME UNDER INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND LIFTS OUT THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS SHOULD BRING ABOUT GRADUAL WEAKENING UNTIL THE CYCLONE GETS
CAPTURED BY THE SYSTEM AND DEEPENS SLIGHTLY INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0900Z 33.3N 56.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 34.2N 56.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 07/0600Z 35.6N 55.1W 35 KT
36HR VT 07/1800Z 37.2N 53.8W 30 KT
48HR VT 08/0600Z 39.2N 51.2W 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 09/0600Z 42.4N 44.1W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 10/0600Z 45.0N 36.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 11/0600Z 48.5N 27.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
0 likes   

User avatar
Hyperstorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1501
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 3:48 am
Location: Ocala, FL

#176 Postby Hyperstorm » Sat Aug 06, 2005 7:29 am

It appears that Harvey is becoming MUCH better organized again and it won't be surprising to see the winds bumped up on the next advisory to 60 mph. The storm has defied the forecasts of increasing shear and convection is deepening in a very organized manner over it. As it moves NE, it will move in tandem with the winds and it is very possible that it could approach hurricane strength after all this time. I'll be watching...
0 likes   

User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5810
Age: 29
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:

#177 Postby WindRunner » Sat Aug 06, 2005 8:06 am

Hyperstorm wrote:It appears that Harvey is becoming MUCH better organized again and it won't be surprising to see the winds bumped up on the next advisory to 60 mph. The storm has defied the forecasts of increasing shear and convection is deepening in a very organized manner over it. As it moves NE, it will move in tandem with the winds and it is very possible that it could approach hurricane strength after all this time. I'll be watching...


It could strengthen, but it isn't very likely since it is currently over 27C water and falling fast.
0 likes   

Coredesat

#178 Postby Coredesat » Sat Aug 06, 2005 8:13 am

I think Harvey's window for strengthening has closed. Harvey looks better now, but I think it's just trying to ward off extratropical transition right now. There still isn't much convection to the SW of the center, and it wouldn't take much more shear to expose the center again.

EDIT: 12z model runs:

Image

Models are shifting south. For some reason the BAMM starts Harvey in a big loop in the central Atlantic.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 119092
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#179 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 06, 2005 9:46 am

WTNT33 KNHC 061445
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SAT AUG 06 2005

...HARVEY TURNS NORTH AND STRENGTHENS...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 56.5 WEST OR ABOUT
495 MILES... 795 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 900
MILES...1450 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR. A TURN
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES
...195 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...33.9 N... 56.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 119092
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#180 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 06, 2005 3:47 pm

TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2005

HARVEY'S CIRCULATION TOOK A SHARP LEFT HOOK LATE THIS MORNING...AND
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEVER FULLY CONNECTED WITH THE EARLIER
CONVECTIVE BURST. THE SYSTEM ONCE AGAIN HAS A SHEARED
APPEARANCE...WITH THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE UNCHANGED COMPARED TO 6 HOURS
AGO AND SO I WILL LEAVE THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 50 KT. ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION NOW APPEARS LESS LIKELY BEFORE COOLER WATERS ARE
ENCOUNTERED WITHIN 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...HARVEY IS LIKELY TO FIND
NEW LIFE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 36-48 HOURS.

AFTER COMPLETING A SMALL CYCLONIC LOOP...HARVEY APPEARS TO BE
RESUMING A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. THE ADVISORY MOTION IS
030/7. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE
WESTERLIES OFF OF NEW ENGLAND IS PUSHING EASTWARD. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO HOOK UP WITH HARVEY IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS AND INDUCE SOME
ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS NOW SUGGEST THAT LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD HARVEY'S EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS WILL COME
INTO PHASE WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES AND CUT OFF.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT
SLOWER AFTER 96 HOURS.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/2100Z 33.7N 56.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 34.4N 55.7W 50 KT
24HR VT 07/1800Z 35.9N 54.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 08/0600Z 37.6N 52.6W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 08/1800Z 39.3N 50.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 09/1800Z 41.5N 44.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 10/1800Z 43.5N 36.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 11/1800Z 44.0N 31.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “2005”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest