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#181 Postby P.K. » Sat Aug 06, 2005 4:42 pm

Team Ragnarok wrote:Models are shifting south. For some reason the BAMM starts Harvey in a big loop in the central Atlantic.


Isn't that because the BAMM models are only programmed to work properly in the deep tropics.?

This forecast looks slightly better, the last one was going a bit too far north direction wise.
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#182 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 06, 2005 9:42 pm

TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2005

AFTER MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH HARVEY'S CIRCULATION
EXPOSED...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE CENTER IS TUCKED
UNDER THE CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN. EVEN THOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...CONFIRMED BY A RECENT QUIKSCAT
PASS...THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF HARVEY ON SATELLITE REMAINS
SURPRISINGLY GOOD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A DIGGING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH EAST OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE APRROACHING TROUGH MAY
BE AIDING IN HARVEY'S PERSISTENCE IN REMAINING A 50 KT TROPICAL
STORM DUE TO TROUGH INTERACTION.

HARVEY IS FINALLY SUSTAINING A NORTHEAST MOTION AT 040/8. AS THE
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES...THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD ACCELERATE HARVEY
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...
HARVEY IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS THE STORM
MOVES OVER THE COLD NORTH ATLANTIC WATERS. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT EXTRATROPICAL HARVEY MAY LINGER FOR A FEW DAYS IN
EASTERN ATLANTIC.


FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0300Z 34.4N 55.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 07/1200Z 35.4N 54.3W 50 KT
24HR VT 08/0000Z 37.0N 52.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 08/1200Z 38.5N 51.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 09/0000Z 39.7N 48.6W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 10/0000Z 41.5N 44.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 11/0000Z 43.0N 38.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 12/0000Z 44.0N 32.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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#183 Postby P.K. » Sun Aug 07, 2005 4:41 am

WTNT43 KNHC 070909
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 07 2005

WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF HARVEY IS UNDERNEATH THE CIRRUS
OVERCAST...A RECENT AQUA SATELLITE OVERPASS SHOWS THE STORM IS
STILL SHEARED WITH THE CONVECTION IN A CLUSTER NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB...45 KT
FROM SAB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA. SINCE THESE ARE UNCHANGED FROM
EARLIER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 040/10. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING HARVEY...
WHICH SHOULD MOVE THE STORM NORTHEASTWARD INITIALLY AND
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD LATER. THAT BEING SAID...LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE
SLOWER TO MOVE HARVEY NORTHEASTWARD THAN THEY WERE EARLIER...AND
SEVERAL OF THEM SUGGEST THE CYCLONE MAY BECOME A CUT-OFF
EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY DAY 5. IN LIGHT OF THIS...THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK. IT IS
STILL FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH THAN THE LARGE-SCALE OR CONSENSUS
MODELS.

INCREASING SHEAR AND COLD AIR ENTRAINMENT CAUSED BY THE TROUGH
SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 24-36 HR. HARVEY IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW THROUGH 120 HR...AND
THERE IS A POSSIBLY THAT IT RE-INTENSIFY AFTER 72 HR. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CHANGED FROM A WEAKENING TREND TO STEADY
INTENSITY DURING THIS TIME TO REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0900Z 35.4N 54.6W 50 KT
12HR VT 07/1800Z 36.4N 53.5W 50 KT
24HR VT 08/0600Z 37.7N 52.1W 45 KT
36HR VT 08/1800Z 38.9N 50.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 09/0600Z 39.9N 48.2W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 10/0600Z 41.0N 43.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 11/0600Z 42.0N 38.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 12/0600Z 43.0N 33.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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#184 Postby P.K. » Sun Aug 07, 2005 10:05 am

WTNT43 KNHC 071443
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN AUG 07 2005

VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES HARVEY'S CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION...AS A RESULT OF A PERSISTENTLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK DATA-T CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 45 KT FROM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS
SHOWED RAIN ENHANCED 50KT WINDS IN THE STRONGEST AREA OF CONVECTION
WITH SEVERAL NON-FLAGGED 40 KT AND 45 KT WINDS. BOTH THE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS AND QUIKSCAT PASS SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL
INTENSITY TO 45 KT.

THE 12-HOUR AVERAGED MOTION IS 045/10. THE STEERING FLOW REMAINS
UNCHANGED WITH AN APPROACHING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE HARVEY NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO
FOLLOWED BY A MORE EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION THEREAFTER. WITH THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING SHEAR AND SST'S BELOW 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS...EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS HARVEY TO SLOW DOWN
ONCE EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES MAINTAINING GALE FORCE WINDS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILIAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT
SLOWER...AND GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS MODELS.


FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/1500Z 35.8N 53.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 08/0000Z 36.9N 52.5W 45 KT
24HR VT 08/1200Z 38.1N 50.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 09/0000Z 39.3N 48.8W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 09/1200Z 40.2N 46.4W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 10/1200Z 41.0N 42.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 11/1200Z 42.0N 38.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 12/1200Z 42.5N 35.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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#185 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 07, 2005 3:34 pm

337
WTNT33 KNHC 072033
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SUN AUG 07 2005

...HARVEY CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS
RE-LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.6 WEST OR ABOUT
670 MILES...1080 KM... SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH ...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...37.0 N... 52.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN


$$





943
WTNT23 KNHC 072033
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082005
2100Z SUN AUG 07 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 52.6W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 25SW 25NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 175SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 52.6W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 53.0W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 37.9N 51.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 25SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 39.1N 49.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 40.2N 47.2W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 75SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 41.0N 44.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 75SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 42.2N 40.7W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 75SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 43.0N 38.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 43.0N 35.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.0N 52.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN
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#186 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 07, 2005 3:40 pm

939
WTNT43 KNHC 072036
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN AUG 07 2005

TODAY'S VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE REVEALED SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL
CENTERS ROTATING AROUND A MEAN CIRCULATION OF HARVEY A LITTLE NORTH
OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION. WE CAN EXPECT SEVERAL MORE OF THESE
SMALL CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP...DISSIPATE..AND RE-DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AS THE PRIMARY CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST.
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES WERE 3.0/3.0...SO
HARVEY REMAINS A SHEARED 45 KT TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE 34-KT WIND RADII AND 12-FT SEAS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON AN
18Z SHIP REPORT.

THE 18-HOUR AVERAGED MOTION IS 045/11. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A SLOWER FOREWARD
MOTION THEREAFTER. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...ALONG 60W...IS
CONTINUING TO DIG WEST OF HARVEY AND WILL STEER THE STORM
NORTHEASTWARD. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE TROUGH PASSING TO THE EAST OF HARVEY IN 2 OR 3
DAYS. ONCE THIS OCCURS... HARVEY SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WEAKER WESTERLIES.

THE FORECAST TRACK IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE OTHER
THAN A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL
RE-LOCATED CENTER...AND A SLOWER EAST- NORTHEAST MOTION IN THE
LATER PERIODS. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL HOPEFULLY OCCUR IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS GALE FORCE
WINDS THROUGH 5 DAYS.


FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/2100Z 37.0N 52.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 08/0600Z 37.9N 51.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 08/1800Z 39.1N 49.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 09/0600Z 40.2N 47.2W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 09/1800Z 41.0N 44.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 10/1800Z 42.2N 40.7W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 11/1800Z 43.0N 38.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 12/1800Z 43.0N 35.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

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#187 Postby P.K. » Sun Aug 07, 2005 4:37 pm

Well Harvey is now the first active storm this season to appear on the Met Office charts. http://www.wetter-zentrale.de/pics/bracka.gif
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#188 Postby senorpepr » Sun Aug 07, 2005 4:43 pm

P.K. wrote:Well Harvey is now the first active storm this season to appear on the Met Office charts. http://www.wetter-zentrale.de/pics/bracka.gif


BTW, the remnants of Franklin has merged into that 999mb low over central Sweden.
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#189 Postby P.K. » Sun Aug 07, 2005 4:46 pm

senorpepr wrote:BTW, the remnants of Franklin has merged into that 999mb low over central Sweden.


They merged with "Joachim" yesterday. :)
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#190 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 07, 2005 9:45 pm

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN AUG 07 2005

HARVEY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE
ESTIMATED CENTER NEAR THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS...BASED ON A SHEAR PATTERN...REMAIN AT 3.0...45
KT. HARVEY WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS WITHIN 24 HOURS AND
SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS SOON.
HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE
WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 045/11. HARVEY IS MOVING WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
STEERING FLOW WILL WEAKEN LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THAT THE
CYCLONE COULD BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
SYSTEM MAY EVEN MOVE A LITTLE SOUTHWARD. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MOVES THE CYCLONE VERY SLOWLY
FROM DAYS 4 TO 5.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0300Z 37.8N 51.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 08/1200Z 38.8N 50.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 09/0000Z 39.8N 48.1W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 09/1200Z 40.7N 46.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 10/0000Z 41.5N 44.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 11/0000Z 42.5N 40.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 12/0000Z 43.0N 36.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/0000Z 43.0N 35.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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#191 Postby EDR1222 » Sun Aug 07, 2005 9:58 pm

senorpepr wrote:
P.K. wrote:Well Harvey is now the first active storm this season to appear on the Met Office charts. http://www.wetter-zentrale.de/pics/bracka.gif


BTW, the remnants of Franklin has merged into that 999mb low over central Sweden.


Franklin, or whats left of him just doesn't want to go away.
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#192 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Aug 08, 2005 12:36 am

This system still looks purely tropical at 2am est.
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#193 Postby P.K. » Mon Aug 08, 2005 4:40 am

WTNT43 KNHC 080903
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON AUG 08 2005

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HARVEY HAS DECREASED NOTABLY DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO COOLER WATERS NORTH OF
THE GULF STREAM AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEGINS. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ALL 45 KT...SO THAT IS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 045/12...UNCERTAIN
BECAUSE THE LAST FEW SHORTWAVE IR IMAGES SUGGEST THE CENTER MAY BE
FARTHER EAST THAN THE ADVISORY POSITION. OTHER THAN THAT...THE
TRACK FORECAST IS STRAIGHTFORWARD. HARVEY SHOULD MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR...THEN
SLOW AND TURN EASTWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR THE NOGAPS WHICH
RACES THE STORM OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...A LITTLE FASTER IN
THE FIRST 72 HR AND SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH THEREAFTER.

HARVEY SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION DURING THE NEXT 24
HR...AND MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE LESS BULLISH ARE RE-INTENSIFYING
HARVEY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT...SO THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A SLOW WEAKENING TO 35 KT BY 120
HR.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0900Z 38.9N 50.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 08/1800Z 39.9N 48.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 09/0600Z 40.9N 46.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 09/1800Z 41.5N 44.3W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 10/0600Z 42.1N 42.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 11/0600Z 42.5N 38.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 12/0600Z 42.5N 35.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/0600Z 42.0N 34.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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#194 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 08, 2005 9:30 am

Image

Harvery refuses to weaken over the north central Atlantic Ocean.
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#195 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 08, 2005 9:41 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST MON AUG 08 2005

...HARVEY ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD BUT EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN
AGAIN...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 47.1 WEST OR ABOUT
535 MILES... 860 KM... SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH ...35 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
BUT WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES
...220 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...40.3 N... 47.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB
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#196 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 08, 2005 3:31 pm

TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST MON AUG 08 2005

...HARVEY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 46.1 WEST OR ABOUT
535 MILES... 865 KM... SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH... 32 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES
...220 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...40.8 N... 46.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN
BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECASTER KNABB
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#197 Postby Andrew92 » Mon Aug 08, 2005 3:31 pm

cycloneye wrote:TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST MON AUG 08 2005

...HARVEY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 46.1 WEST OR ABOUT
535 MILES... 865 KM... SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH... 32 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES
...220 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...40.8 N... 46.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN
BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECASTER KNABB


Harvey, :Door: Don't let it hit you on the way out! See ya in 2011.

-Andrew92
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#198 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 08, 2005 3:37 pm

Image

It does a little loop at the end as an extratropical system.
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#199 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 08, 2005 3:52 pm

TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON AUG 08 2005

HARVEY IS MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 24 CELSIUS OR LESS
AND LACKS CONVECTION NEAR THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE CLOUD
PATTERN IS ASYMMETRIC AND IS GRADUALLY MERGING WITH A MIDLATITUDE
CLOUD BAND. EVEN THOUGH IT IS BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL... EX-HARVEY
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN GALE FORCE WINDS DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

HARVEY HAS BEGUN TO SLOW DOWN AGAIN AS EXPECTED... AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/17. WHILE THE STORM IS WELL-EMBEDDED IN THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES... MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
HARVEY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN AND PERHAPS MEANDER JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THE
UKMET IS THE OUTLIER TAKING HARVEY QUICKLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...
THE GFS... NOGAPS... AND GFDL SHOW A GRADUAL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST
BEYOND DAY 3... AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/2100Z 40.8N 46.1W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT 09/0600Z 41.9N 44.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 09/1800Z 43.3N 41.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 10/0600Z 44.0N 38.3W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 10/1800Z 44.6N 36.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 11/1800Z 44.5N 32.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 12/1800Z 44.0N 31.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/1800Z 43.5N 30.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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#200 Postby P.K. » Mon Aug 08, 2005 3:56 pm

Interestingly looking at the Met Office charts this appears to seperate in two after 84 hours, with the main part then heading SW slowly. However the other part then reaches SW England by 108 hours. Well that is how I read them at the moment anyway.
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