TD Jose Advisories

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cycloneye
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TD Jose Advisories

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 22, 2005 10:05 am

Ok here we go for advisories on this new TD.First Advisorie very soon.


*title edited* sg
Last edited by cycloneye on Tue Aug 23, 2005 9:47 am, edited 13 times in total.
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#2 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 22, 2005 10:30 am

Tropical Depression Eleven Special Advisory Number 1


Statement as of Noon EDT on August 22, 2005



...Tropical depression forms in the Bay of Campeche...Tropical Storm
Warning issued for Mexico...
At 11 am CDT...1600z...the government of Mexico has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for the Gulf Coast of Mexico from Veracruz
northward to Cabo Rojo.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At noon EDT...1600z...the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was
located near latitude 19.5 north... longitude 95.0 west or about 80
miles... 130 km... east-northeast of Veracruz Mexico and about 185
miles... 300 km...east-southeast of Tuxpan Mexico.

The depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph
...13 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue over the next
24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of the depression is
expected to move inland within the warning area sometime tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph... 45 km/hr...with higher
gusts. The depression could become a tropical storm prior to making
landfall.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb...29.77 inches.

Rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches...with isolated higher
amounts especially over elevated terrain...can be expected near the
path of the depression. These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides.
Repeating the noon EDT position...19.5 N... 95.0 W. Movement
toward...west near 8 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 30 mph. Minimum central pressure...1008 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 PM EDT.

Forecaster Franklin
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#3 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 22, 2005 10:32 am

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#4 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 22, 2005 10:33 am

Tropical Depression Eleven Special Forecast/Advisory Number 1


Statement as of 16:00Z on August 22, 2005



at 11 am CDT...1600z...the government of Mexico has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for the Gulf Coast of Mexico from Veracruz
northward to Cabo Rojo.

Tropical depression center located near 19.5n 95.0w at 22/1600z
position accurate within 30 nm

present movement toward the west or 280 degrees at 7 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1008 mb
Max sustained winds 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 19.5n 95.0w at 22/1600z
at 22/1200z center was located near 19.4n 94.5w

forecast valid 23/0000z 19.7n 96.0w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 60ne 30se 30sw 60nw.

Forecast valid 23/1200z 19.9n 97.6w...inland
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.

Forecast valid 24/0000z...dissipated

request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 19.5n 95.0w

next advisory at 22/2100z

forecaster Franklin

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#5 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 22, 2005 10:35 am

Tropical Depression Eleven Special Discussion Number 1


Statement as of Noon EDT on August 22, 2005



satellite imagery...Mexican radar data...and Quikscat ambiguities
indicate that the area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche
has organized into a tropical depression. The initial intensity of
25 kt is based on Quikscat observations outside of the deep
convection and the presumption that the core circulation within the
convection is still broad. Upper-level outflow is very strong and
the water is warm...however...the system does not have very long
over the water to take advantage of these favorable conditions.
Although neither the SHIPS nor GFDL intensity guidance makes this
system a tropical storm...I prefer to err on the side of caution in
forecasting the depression to reach storm strength. An Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft will provide better information on the
strength of the cyclone late this afternoon.
The initial motion is 280/7. The depression is south of a mid-level
ridge and is expected to continue on a track just north of due west
until landfall.

Forecaster Franklin


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 22/1600z 19.5n 95.0w 25 kt
12hr VT 23/0000z 19.7n 96.0w 35 kt
24hr VT 23/1200z 19.9n 97.6w 25 kt...inland
36hr VT 24/0000z...dissipated

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#6 Postby Jim Cantore » Mon Aug 22, 2005 10:48 am

Is it just me or will this be the third tropical syistem to hit this part of mexico this year?
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 22, 2005 10:49 am

Hurricane Floyd wrote:Is it just me or will this be the third tropical syistem to hit this part of mexico this year?


4. BRET, EMILY, GERT, TD 11/JOSE?
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#8 Postby vbhoutex » Mon Aug 22, 2005 11:30 am

It would be the third TS to hit this area this year. Hurricane Emily was to the North of this area.
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#9 Postby Rainband » Mon Aug 22, 2005 11:36 am

they have been very unlucky :eek:
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#10 Postby chadtm80 » Mon Aug 22, 2005 12:11 pm

Image

Image
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#11 Postby hurricanefreak1988 » Mon Aug 22, 2005 12:28 pm

Hey look, another short-lived Bay of Campeche storm. This sucker will almost be dead by tomorrow night! I'm certainly not complaining, though. Anything to add to the score is good. I think this is the beginning of the big run that we (well, unfortunately, there were the foolish ones on here) all were waiting for. To Alpha or bust! :P
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#12 Postby dwg71 » Mon Aug 22, 2005 12:44 pm

hurricanefreak1988 wrote:Hey look, another short-lived Bay of Campeche storm. This sucker will almost be dead by tomorrow night! I'm certainly not complaining, though. Anything to add to the score is good. I think this is the beginning of the big run that we (well, unfortunately, there were the foolish ones on here) all were waiting for. To Alpha or bust! :P


Just think where we would be without the 3 or 4 duds we've had this year. People would be jumping from windows. BOC = Jose, I'd say 45%, based on current sat.
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#13 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:08 pm

dwg71 wrote:
hurricanefreak1988 wrote:Hey look, another short-lived Bay of Campeche storm. This sucker will almost be dead by tomorrow night! I'm certainly not complaining, though. Anything to add to the score is good. I think this is the beginning of the big run that we (well, unfortunately, there were the foolish ones on here) all were waiting for. To Alpha or bust! :P


Just think where we would be without the 3 or 4 duds we've had this year. People would be jumping from windows. BOC = Jose, I'd say 45%, based on current sat.


Yeah, and some people will still be saying this season is "boring" because it's not major hurricane threatening the US. :roll:
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#14 Postby Swimdude » Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:17 pm

Yeah, and some people will still be saying this season is "boring" because it's not major hurricane threatening the US


Well after last season, I guess that's to be expected... Wouldn't be surprised to see one of those come along some time soon.
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#15 Postby Josephine96 » Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:23 pm

Well.. let's see... It'd only take 1 flare up or 2 for him to become Jose.. I'm kinda still a little ticked that #10 never became Jose lol and that this should be Katrina, but oh well.. we'll get there
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#16 Postby cjrciadt » Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:32 pm

Thunder44 wrote:
dwg71 wrote:
hurricanefreak1988 wrote:Hey look, another short-lived Bay of Campeche storm. This sucker will almost be dead by tomorrow night! I'm certainly not complaining, though. Anything to add to the score is good. I think this is the beginning of the big run that we (well, unfortunately, there were the foolish ones on here) all were waiting for. To Alpha or bust! :P


Just think where we would be without the 3 or 4 duds we've had this year. People would be jumping from windows. BOC = Jose, I'd say 45%, based on current sat.


Yeah, and some people will still be saying this season is "boring" because it's not major hurricane threatening the US. :roll:
Charley,Frances,Ivan,Jeanne,Cindy and Dennis not enough for less than 2 seasons :grr: Maybe time for the Worst Case Scenario for the NE like the NYC hurricane thread. http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... =york+city
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#17 Postby gkrangers » Mon Aug 22, 2005 2:40 pm

In all likelyhood...I'd expect a TD at 5PM if recon hasn't reached the center. Then, if recon does find a TS, they'll issue a special advisory.

No reason to take the chance of an upgrade with recon so close.
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#18 Postby jrod » Mon Aug 22, 2005 3:37 pm

It will be upgraded. Jose looks like a strengthening tropical storm on satellite and recon will find that there is indeed a tropical storm there. If not then that is the best damn looking TD ive ever seen.
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#19 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Aug 22, 2005 3:40 pm

By looking at the satellite it appears to be around 50 mph tropical storm. With the convection blowing up over the LLC. This IS The best looking depression I'v ever seen.
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#20 Postby dwg71 » Mon Aug 22, 2005 3:50 pm

advisory is out, no Jose....still 11
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