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ROCK
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#41 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 22, 2005 7:40 pm

dwg71 wrote:What's the shortest official life span of a tropical storm?

Jose formed at 5:25PM, I wonder if it will make the 10PM advisory in tact.



I think it will....wont be downgraded until it moves inland. Tomorrow Am most likely...
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#42 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 22, 2005 9:36 pm

230235
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112005
0300Z TUE AUG 23 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 96.2W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 96.2W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 95.7W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 19.9N 97.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.1N 98.3W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 96.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

FORECASTER KNABB

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#43 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 22, 2005 9:39 pm

230237
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOSE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005

...SMALL TROPICAL STORM JOSE NEARING THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALREADY ONSHORE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 96.2 WEST OR ABOUT 40
MILES... 65 KM... NORTH OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 115 MILES...
185 KM...SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

JOSE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH... 13 KM/HR... AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF JOSE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COAST
OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH JOSE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...19.8 N... 96.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM
CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB
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#44 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 22, 2005 9:44 pm

It was nice to have you for a few hours Jose. By the way, that's my dad's first name, his middle name is William which is in the list next year. Some people want to have their names in the list, my dad has both. :lol:
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#45 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 22, 2005 9:57 pm

431
WTNT41 KNHC 230257
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2005

THE U.S. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS DOWN A NOTCH TO 1001 MB. HOWEVER...
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN ONLY AS STRONG AS 49 KT TO
THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER... WITHIN THE VERY DEEP
CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. EVEN THOUGH THE
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS DO NOT QUITE SUPPORT IT... THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT SINCE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS SIMILAR TO
WHAT IT WAS WHEN STRONGER WINDS WERE OBSERVED AT 22Z. JOSE HAS JUST
A FEW MORE HOURS OVER WATER... AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL OF THE CENTER. THIS TROPICAL STORM IS
QUITE SMALL AND RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED
AFTER IT CROSSES THE COAST. HOWEVER... THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS
SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL... WITH ASSOCIATED LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... EVEN POSSIBLY WELL INLAND AND MANY HOURS
AFTER LANDFALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BASED ON THE SERIES OF AIRCRAFT FIXES IS
280/7. THIS MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY... AND ASSUMING THIS MOTION CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM AS
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS... THE CENTER OF JOSE IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED MIGHT OCCUR AFTER LANDFALL. JOSE SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY MOVE
INTO THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN MEXICO ON TUESDAY... AND
BEGIN LOSING ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0300Z 19.8N 96.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 19.9N 97.2W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 24/0000Z 20.1N 98.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
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#46 Postby chadtm80 » Mon Aug 22, 2005 10:22 pm

Image
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#47 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Aug 23, 2005 12:52 am

000
WTNT31 KNHC 230536
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOSE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005

...CENTER OF JOSE MAKES LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MEXICO...WAS
GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AT LANDFALL...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO. THIS WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

DATA FROM THE MEXICAN RADAR AT ALVARADO INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF
JOSE HAS MADE LANDFALL ON THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 96.8 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES... 95 KM... NORTHWEST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 90 MILES...
145 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

JOSE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH... 14 KM/HR... AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF JOSE SHOULD MOVE FARTHER INLAND INTO
THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN MEXICO TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOSE SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND. THE
ALVARADO RADAR INDICATED THAT JOSE WAS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN
THE LAST FEW HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL...AND THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS AT LANDFALL MAY HAVE BEEN HIGHER THAN 50 MPH.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH JOSE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...19.8 N... 96.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#48 Postby senorpepr » Tue Aug 23, 2005 3:39 am

248
WTNT31 KNHC 230832
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOSE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005

...JOSE WEAKENING OVER EASTERN MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO. THIS WARNING SHOULD BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.1 WEST OR ABOUT
70 MILES... 115 KM...NORTHWEST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT
85 MILES... 135 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

JOSE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF JOSE SHOULD MOVE FARTHER INLAND INTO
THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN MEXICO TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH... 65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS
THE CENTER OF JOSE MOVES FATHER INLAND...AND THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BE DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH JOSE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...19.8 N... 97.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN




791
WTNT41 KNHC 230831
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005

DATA FROM THE RADAR AT ALVARADO MEXICO INDICATED THAT JOSE BECAME
BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE LAST TWO HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH AN
EYE FORMING. JUST HOW STRONG THE STORM GOT BEFORE LANDFALL IS
UNKNOWN...AS AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE EYE STARTED TO FORM TRMM
DATA SHOWED THE CENTER WAS PARTLY EXPOSED AND AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWED
JOSE WELL SHORT OF HURRICANE STRENGTH. SINCE LANDFALL...BOTH THE
SATELLITE AND RADAR SIGNATURES HAVE WEAKENED...AND JOSE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNTIL IT DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
EASTERN MEXICO IN 24-36 HR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/8. JOSE IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL
DISSIPATION.

THE RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY OR TWO AS
JOSE OR ITS REMNANTS TRAVERSE MEXICO. THE COASTAL WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED AT 7 AM.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0900Z 19.8N 97.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 19.9N 98.3W 25 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 24/0600Z 20.1N 99.8W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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#49 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 23, 2005 6:58 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005

...JOSE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...

AT 7 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.7 WEST OR ABOUT
85 MILES... 135 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO AND ABOUT
90 MILES... 145 KM...EAST OF MEXICO CITY MEXICO.

JOSE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF JOSE SHOULD MOVE FARTHER INLAND INTO
THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN MEXICO TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH... 55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS
THE CENTER OF JOSE MOVES FATHER INLAND...AND THE SYSTEM MAY
DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF CENTRAL MEXICO LATER
TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH JOSE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...19.6 N... 97.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


Downgraded to TD.See you Jose in 2011.
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#50 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 23, 2005 9:34 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE JOSE IS RAPIDLY
WEAKENING INLAND OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EAST-CENTRAL
MEXICO. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES
TO MOVE WESTWARD...OR 270/08...ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG
MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND TEXAS.

JOSE COULD DISSIPATE SOONER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INDICATING
...BUT A 12H FORECAST POINT WAS PROVIDED FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES.
ALTHOUGH JOSE IS DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE SLOW
MOVING REMNANT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MEXICO FOR THE DAY OR TWO.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST OFFICIAL FORECAST ON THIS SYSTEM.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/1500Z 19.7N 98.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
12HR VT 24/0000Z 19.7N 99.3W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
24HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND



Last advisorie from NHC.
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#51 Postby gilbert88 » Tue Aug 23, 2005 2:28 pm

The remnants of TD José will probably pass over Mexico City... that's extremely unusual. [/b]
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#52 Postby Andrew92 » Tue Aug 23, 2005 2:29 pm

Jose, :Door: and don't get hit on the way out! See ya in 2011!
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