TD Jose Advisories

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Gorky
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#21 Postby Gorky » Mon Aug 22, 2005 4:28 pm

ZCZC MIATCUAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM JOSE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
425 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005

...RECONNIASSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN
HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM JOSE...

SHORTLY AFTER 400 PM CDT... RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN TROPICAL STORM JOSE WERE NEAR 45 MPH.
DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY...
MAINLY TO UPDATE THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECASTER KNABB


$$
NNNN
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#22 Postby dwg71 » Mon Aug 22, 2005 4:30 pm

What's the record for shortest life of a TS, it might be in jeopardy.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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#23 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Aug 22, 2005 4:35 pm

I believe it was a tropical storm for the last 6 hours. The recon found some 60 knot surface winds. With a large area of 50 to 55 mph winds.
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#24 Postby dwg71 » Mon Aug 22, 2005 4:43 pm

What's the shortest official life span of a tropical storm?

Jose formed at 5:25PM, I wonder if it will make the 10PM advisory in tact.
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#25 Postby dhweather » Mon Aug 22, 2005 4:47 pm

It won't be officially one over 12 hours.
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#26 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Mon Aug 22, 2005 4:52 pm

Dean and Jerry in 1995 were fairly short lived tropical storms
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#27 Postby dwg71 » Mon Aug 22, 2005 4:54 pm

Dean was 12 hours.. I think this will beat that.
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#28 Postby senorpepr » Mon Aug 22, 2005 5:03 pm

Jose broke the record of earliest 10th named storm by less than a day...
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#29 Postby hurricanefreak1988 » Mon Aug 22, 2005 5:07 pm

Come on NHC, what's the holdup? I'm waiting for that special advisory. So much for it being "issued shortly". :lol:
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#30 Postby johngaltfla » Mon Aug 22, 2005 5:07 pm

Interesting that it's a GOM storm that sets another record. What has me nervous is that the SST's are still very high and we're not into the peak. And the GOM and the West Coast of Florida have a long and storied history in September and October.
:eek:
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#31 Postby superfly » Mon Aug 22, 2005 5:09 pm

hurricanefreak1988 wrote:Come on NHC, what's the holdup? I'm waiting for that special advisory. So much for it being "issued shortly". :lol:


They're waiting for recon to finish. They'll likely put it at either 45 or 50 kts.
Last edited by superfly on Mon Aug 22, 2005 5:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#32 Postby clfenwi » Mon Aug 22, 2005 5:10 pm

Yeah, waiting on a center fix... looks like recon found it at 2153Z... so the update should be out real soon...
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#33 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 22, 2005 5:12 pm

867
WTNT21 KNHC 222211
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM JOSE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112005
2215Z MON AUG 22 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 95.4W AT 22/2215Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 95.4W AT 22/2215Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 95.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.7N 96.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.9N 97.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.1N 98.1W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 95.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

FORECASTER KNABB
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#34 Postby hurricanefreak1988 » Mon Aug 22, 2005 5:16 pm

Wow, from 35 mph to 50 mph! Way to go Jose. Show those doubters a thing or two. 8-)
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#35 Postby whereverwx » Mon Aug 22, 2005 5:23 pm

Wow! These BOC storms get organized fast.
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#36 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Aug 22, 2005 5:27 pm

Hurricane Jose anyone??? :eek:
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#37 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Aug 22, 2005 5:29 pm

Its possible. The storm is now only moving 6 mph. So if it keeps slowing down it could stay over water longer. I say it gots another 6 to 8 hours.
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#38 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 22, 2005 5:29 pm

WTNT31 KNHC 222223
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOSE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
515 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005

...TENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005 ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

AT 515 PM CDT... 2215 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTHWARD FROM VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL
LAGARTO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF
COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA EL LAGARTO NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 515 PM CDT...2215Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 95.4 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES... 95 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 160
MILES... 260 KM...SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

JOSE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR... AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK... THE CENTER OF JOSE WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE
WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE JOSE MAKES
LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES
... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 515 PM CDT POSITION...19.6 N... 95.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB
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#39 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 22, 2005 5:38 pm

TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JOSE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
615 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2005

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE FORECAST ON WHAT
IS NOW TROPICAL STORM JOSE. A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED MAXIMUM 1000 FT FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS OF 54 KT... SUPPORTING ALMOST 45 KT AT THE SURFACE... WHICH
IS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO MEASURED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1002 MB. ADDITIONALLY... THE POSITION OF THE
CENTER REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT JOSE IS MOVING MORE
SLOWLY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT... AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS 280/5. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK ASSUMES THIS MOTION WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL LANDFALL SOMETIME TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN MEXICO... IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS. THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
OVERNIGHT WHILE THE STORM REMAINS OVER WATER. THE WIND RADII
FORECAST... BASED IN PART ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA... NECESSITATES
EXTENDING THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD.

ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SLOWER MOTION... THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS
SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL... WITH ASSOCIATED LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/2215Z 19.6N 95.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 19.7N 96.1W 50 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 19.9N 97.1W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 24/0600Z 20.1N 98.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

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#40 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 22, 2005 7:01 pm

030
WTNT31 KNHC 222359
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOSE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM PUNTA EL LAGARTO NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST OR ABOUT 45
MILES... 75 KM... NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 140
MILES... 225 KM...SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

JOSE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH... 10 KM/HR... AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK... THE CENTER OF JOSE WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE
WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE JOSE MAKES
LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...19.7 N... 95.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB
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