Hurricane Katrina

[cycloneye]

[Typhoon_Willie]

Well it looks like my area is going to get some wind and rain out of this! And who knows that wind may reach Cat one in gusts.

[gatorcane]

looks to me it's going over my house Thurs night

[Stratosphere747]

I know some get caught up in the discussions from Stewart, but that is one hell of a write up from Knabb

[deltadog03]

is it me or does this track specially at the end not show a NW or WNW turn?? this, to me, shows almost no nw turn at the end...??

[Seele]

is it me or does this track specially at the end not show a NW or WNW turn?? this, to me, shows almost no nw turn at the end...??

Not yet, but I wouldn't read too much into that. I think the straight line simply indicates the NHC's uncertainty about it's course that far out.

[deltadog03]

yeah good point....we need to focus on FL first....

[jabber]

I know some get caught up in the discussions from Stewart, but that is one hell of a write up from Knabb

Very true.....

[cycloneye]

That was a very detailed and informative discussion by Knabb.

[jasons2k]

yes it was, maybe SE FL being in the center puts things in a little different perspective

[tallywx]

What I want is access to that Great Exuma radar imagery. Any ideas where one might find this?

[EDIT: Found it! ftp://140.183.83.136/outbound/. Bottommost is most recent. Awesome! ]

[Coredesat]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 240550
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

...CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE NEAR GREAT EXUMA ISLAND IN
THE BAHAMAS....

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... INCLUDING CAT ISLAND... THE EXUMAS... LONG
ISLAND... RUM CAY... SAN SALVADOR... THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
THE ABACOS... ANDROS ISLAND... THE BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI...
ELEUTHERA... GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO VERO BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST OR ABOUT
135 MILES... 220 KM... SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5
MPH... 8 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH COAST
OF CUBA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...23.6 N... 76.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[ConvergenceZone]

Does anyone know longterm if this is a threat to Texas or LA or do you think it will just go into Mexico?? The models seem to be all over the place, some even taking the storm south.

[JamesFromMaine2]

I don't know the only advice I can give you is to keep watching and be prepaired! Hope for the best but prepair for the worst!

[Thunder44]

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 24, 2005


...Tropical depression moving slowly northwestward through the
Bahamas...nearing tropical storm strength...

a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the central and
northwestern Bahamas... including Cat Island... the Exumas... Long
Island... Rum Cay... San Salvador... the northwestern Bahamas...
the Abacos... Andros Island... the Berry Islands... Bimini...
Eleuthera... Grand Bahama Island... and New Providence. A Tropical
Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for portions of the East
Coast of Florida and the Florida Keys from west of the Seven Mile
Bridge northward to Vero Beach. A tropical storm watch means that
tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...
generally within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch may be required later
today for portions of the Florida East Coast.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Depression Twelve was
located near latitude 24.0 north...longitude 76.4 west or about
95 miles... 150 km...southeast of Nassau and about 270 miles...
430 km...east-southeast of the southeast coast of Florida.

The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph
...11 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for
the next 24 hours. This motion should bring the center through the
central and northwestern Bahamas.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter indicate that
maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts...mainly in squalls to the east of the center. Strengthening
is forecast during the next 24 hours...and the depression could
become a tropical storm later today.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.
Georgetown on great Exuma Island recently reported a pressure of
1006.8 mb...29.73 inches.

The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches over the central and northwestern Bahamas... with
isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible. Isolated rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are possible along the north coast
of Cuba.

Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves... can be expected
near the center in areas of onshore winds in the Bahamas.

Repeating the 5 am EDT position...24.0 N... 76.4 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 7 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1006 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 am EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 am EDT.

Forecaster Beven

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If 51 mph flight level doe's not make this a tropical storm. Then I don't think Gert or Bret should be tropcial storms. Sorry but this is something I can't say on this board.

[clfenwi]

I really thought they were going to go 40 mph for this advisory...

[ericinmia]

hhmmm not a TS

At this rate by 8am or at the latest 11am it will be. I am feeling that at 11am or the 2pm update hurricane watches will go up.
-Eric

btw... its presentation on sat. is looking much better.

[Thunder44]

I'm going to wait until I see their discussion before I commet on this.

[senorpepr]

Well, it looks like they are weighing in the fact that the pressure hasn't changed much and the LLCC is difficult to see. They may be waiting on visible for an upgrade.