Hurricane Katrina - Cat. 5

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cycloneye
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Hurricane Katrina - Cat. 5

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 23, 2005 1:40 pm

Well here we go again.First Advisorie at 5 PM EDT.

WONT41 KNHC 231837
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
235 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005

...TWELFTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS FORMING WITHIN THE DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THE CENTER OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND SURFACE WINDS ARE AROUND 35 MPH.
ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM AT 5 PM EDT.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

FORECASTER STEWART
Last edited by cycloneye on Wed Aug 31, 2005 10:33 am, edited 134 times in total.
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#2 Postby BreinLa » Tue Aug 23, 2005 1:57 pm

Thanks ceye, guess it's time for me to start watching again
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#3 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Aug 23, 2005 2:05 pm

It's back to the tropics for me as well! This one could threaten my area so I'll definately be on top of it. Long week ahead everyone!
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#4 Postby hurricanefreak1988 » Tue Aug 23, 2005 2:05 pm

2005 HURRICANE SEASON BOX SCORE

Score: Atlantic 12, Eastern Pacific 8
Major hurricanes: 2
Hurricanes: 3
Named storms/total storms: 10/12
Number of Girls: 6
Number of Guys: 5
Fishes (including not hitting Bermuda): 1
Charges taken (AKA taking one for the team): Mexico (2), Cuba (1)

And most importantly...

Assists: T.D. Ten (1) :wink:

Say thank you, (soon-to-be) Katrina. :)
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#5 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 23, 2005 2:08 pm

Once again the Atlantic ties the WPAC with the same number of systems, 12.
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#6 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Aug 23, 2005 2:10 pm

we will beat the EPAC.

<RICKY>
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#7 Postby hurricanefreak1988 » Tue Aug 23, 2005 2:10 pm

Wow, can you imagine us beating the West Pacific? That would be storming the court worthy. Heck, that would be, wild celebration worthy.

And Ricky, you are correct. I already made that guarantee a week or two ago. I made an avatar bet with Matt-hurricanewatcher (the resident E-Pac fan on Storm2K), and it looks like his avatar will be celebrating our 2005 title pretty soon. :P
Last edited by hurricanefreak1988 on Tue Aug 23, 2005 2:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#8 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 23, 2005 2:11 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:we will beat the EPAC.

<RICKY>


We have been doing so since June I believe. :)
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hi

#9 Postby Dave C » Tue Aug 23, 2005 2:14 pm

Just ran a loop of floater visable of the depression and some pretty fast NE shear is not too far to it's west. That's going to have to relax quite a bit as this system moves closer to Florida. Let's hope the shear continues! :eek: :eek:
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Re: hi

#10 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Aug 23, 2005 2:24 pm

Dave C wrote:Just ran a loop of floater visable of the depression and some pretty fast NE shear is not too far to it's west. That's going to have to relax quite a bit as this system moves closer to Florida. Let's hope the shear continues! :eek: :eek:



That is being induced by the ULL which is moving faster to the west than our TD. Shear should be lessening from everything I'm seeing.
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#11 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 23, 2005 2:45 pm

Code: Select all

ID      T1 TIME    LAT     LON DIST HDG WDIR  WSPD   GST  WVHT   DPD   APD MWD   PRES  PTDY  ATMP  WTMP  DEWP   VIS  TIDE
           (GMT)                 nm   °    °   kts   kts    ft   sec   sec   °     in    in    °F    °F    °F    mi    ft
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A8CI9    S 1800  23.80  -74.70  109   9   80  29.9     -     -     -     -   -  29.84 -0.06  81.7  86.0     -   6.2     -


A ship reported 30 knots surface winds, which just verifies RECON findings.
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#12 Postby LAwxrgal » Tue Aug 23, 2005 2:52 pm

Pass the coffee. Looks like we're in for a long weekend. :)
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Caned-out after Katrina/Rita/Gustav/Ike/Isaac...only occasionally tracking storms now.

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#13 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 23, 2005 3:26 pm

Tropical Depression Twelve Forecast/Advisory Number 1


Statement as of 21:00Z on August 23, 2005



at 5 PM EDT...2100z...the government of the Bahamas has issued a
tropical warning Storm Warning for the central and northwestern
Bahamas.

A tropical storm or Hurricane Watch may be required for portions of
southern Florida later tonight.

Tropical depression center located near 23.2n 75.5w at 23/2100z
position accurate within 30 nm

present movement toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 7 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1007 mb
Max sustained winds 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 23.2n 75.5w at 23/2100z
at 23/1800z center was located near 23.0n 75.2w

forecast valid 24/0600z 24.0n 76.5w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 60ne 60se 50sw 0nw.

Forecast valid 24/1800z 25.0n 77.7w
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt... 60ne 60se 60sw 30nw.

Forecast valid 25/0600z 25.7n 78.5w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt... 60ne 60se 60sw 60nw.

Forecast valid 25/1800z 26.0n 79.4w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 35ne 25se 25sw 35nw.
34 kt... 70ne 60se 60sw 70nw.

Forecast valid 26/1800z 26.3n 81.0w...inland
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 25ne 20se 20sw 20nw.
34 kt... 70ne 60se 60sw 60nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 27/1800z 26.5n 83.5w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.

Outlook valid 28/1800z 27.5n 86.0w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 23.2n 75.5w

next advisory at 24/0300z

forecaster Stewart

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#14 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 23, 2005 3:27 pm

Image
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kevin

#15 Postby kevin » Tue Aug 23, 2005 3:30 pm

yikes. < ocala FL
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#16 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 23, 2005 3:38 pm

Image
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#17 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 23, 2005 3:38 pm

Tropical Depression Twelve Advisory Number 1...Corrected


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 23, 2005


Corrected warning section
...Twelfth depression of the season forms over the Bahamas...
...Tropical storm warnings issued...

at 5 PM EDT...2100z...the government of the Bahamas has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for the central and northwest Bahamas. This
includes Cat Island...the Exumas...Long Island...Rum Cay...
San Salvador...northwestern Bahamas... the Abacos... Andros Island
...Berry Islands...Bimini...Eleuthera...Grand Bahama Island...
and New Providence.

A tropical storm or Hurricane Watch may be required for portions of
southern Florida later tonight.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Depression Twelve was
estimated near latitude 23.2 north... longitude 75.5 west or about
175 miles... 280 km... southeast of Nassau.

The depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph
...13 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for
the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds indicated by reconnaissance aircraft data
and surface observations are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...
and the depression could become a tropical storm by Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.

Total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are possible over
portions of the Bahamas...and along the northern coast of Cuba...
with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches possible along the
northern coast of Cuba.
Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the center in areas of onshore winds in the Bahamas.

Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...23.2 N... 75.5 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1007 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 PM EDT.

Forecaster Stewart

Last edited by HURAKAN on Tue Aug 23, 2005 3:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#18 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Aug 23, 2005 3:44 pm

WTNT72 KNHC 232025
SPFAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

25.0N 77.7W 50 X X X 50 JACKSONVILLE FL X X 2 9 11
25.7N 78.5W 36 X X 1 37 SAVANNAH GA X X X 6 6
26.0N 79.4W 19 6 1 1 27 CHARLESTON SC X X X 3 3
MUCF 221N 805W X 1 X 3 4 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 2 2
MUSN 216N 826W X X X 2 2 KEY WEST FL X 5 3 5 13
MUHA 230N 824W X X 1 5 6 MARCO ISLAND FL X 9 4 5 18
MYSM 241N 745W 60 X X X 60 FT MYERS FL X 7 6 5 18
MYEG 235N 758W 99 X X X 99 VENICE FL X 3 7 7 17
MYAK 241N 776W 50 X X X 50 TAMPA FL X 1 7 8 16
MYNN 251N 775W 53 X X X 53 CEDAR KEY FL X X 3 10 13
MYGF 266N 787W 20 6 1 1 28 ST MARKS FL X X X 8 8
MARATHON FL 2 8 2 4 16 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 7 7
MIAMI FL 7 11 2 2 22 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 6 6
W PALM BEACH FL 3 14 3 2 22 PENSACOLA FL X X X 2 2
FT PIERCE FL X 12 5 4 21 GULF 29N 85W X X 1 8 9
COCOA BEACH FL X 7 6 6 19 GULF 29N 87W X X X 4 4
DAYTONA BEACH FL X 1 6 8 15

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM WED TO 2AM THU
C FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU
D FROM 2PM THU TO 2PM FRI
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART


$$
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#19 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Aug 23, 2005 3:44 pm

WTNT72 KNHC 232025
SPFAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

25.0N 77.7W 50 X X X 50 JACKSONVILLE FL X X 2 9 11
25.7N 78.5W 36 X X 1 37 SAVANNAH GA X X X 6 6
26.0N 79.4W 19 6 1 1 27 CHARLESTON SC X X X 3 3
MUCF 221N 805W X 1 X 3 4 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 2 2
MUSN 216N 826W X X X 2 2 KEY WEST FL X 5 3 5 13
MUHA 230N 824W X X 1 5 6 MARCO ISLAND FL X 9 4 5 18
MYSM 241N 745W 60 X X X 60 FT MYERS FL X 7 6 5 18
MYEG 235N 758W 99 X X X 99 VENICE FL X 3 7 7 17
MYAK 241N 776W 50 X X X 50 TAMPA FL X 1 7 8 16
MYNN 251N 775W 53 X X X 53 CEDAR KEY FL X X 3 10 13
MYGF 266N 787W 20 6 1 1 28 ST MARKS FL X X X 8 8
MARATHON FL 2 8 2 4 16 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 7 7
MIAMI FL 7 11 2 2 22 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 6 6
W PALM BEACH FL 3 14 3 2 22 PENSACOLA FL X X X 2 2
FT PIERCE FL X 12 5 4 21 GULF 29N 85W X X 1 8 9
COCOA BEACH FL X 7 6 6 19 GULF 29N 87W X X X 4 4
DAYTONA BEACH FL X 1 6 8 15

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM WED TO 2AM THU
C FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU
D FROM 2PM THU TO 2PM FRI
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART


$$
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#20 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Aug 23, 2005 4:03 pm

no Disc?
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