Hurricane Katrina - Cat. 5

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cycloneye
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#2121 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 29, 2005 6:27 am

WTNT62 KNHC 291116
TCUAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
610 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005

...KATRINA MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

AT 610 AM CDT...1110Z...HURRICANE KATRINA HAS MADE LANDFALL IN
SOUTHERN PLAQUEMINES PARISH LOUISIANA...JUST SOUTH OF BURAS...AS A
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 140 MPH TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

FORECASTER PASCH

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#2122 Postby senorpepr » Mon Aug 29, 2005 6:47 am

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 21
Flight ID: AF306
Observation Number: 14
Time: 11:32:30Z
Latitude: 29.4°N
Longitude: 89.6°W
Location: 32 mi ENE of Grand Isle, Louisana
Minimum height at 700 mb 2413 m
Est. Surface Winds Observed: NA
Distance and bearing from center to max surface wind: NA
Maximum flight level wind: SE (139°) @ 146 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 41 mi NE (51°)
Sea level pressure: 921 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 48°F at 9984 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 63°F at 9990 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 61°F
Eye character: CLOSED
Eye shape: Circular
Eye diameter: 29 mi
Fix determined by: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature at 700 mb
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.02 / 2 nm
MAX FL WIND 134 KT E QUAD 10:13:20 Z
EYEWALL STRUCTURE WEAKENING IN SOUTH
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Scorpion

#2123 Postby Scorpion » Mon Aug 29, 2005 6:57 am

Strengthening at landfall even though dry air is being entrained....
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#2124 Postby txwatcher91 » Mon Aug 29, 2005 7:15 am

Scorpion wrote:Strengthening at landfall even though dry air is being entrained....


Is it really strengthening?
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Scorpion

#2125 Postby Scorpion » Mon Aug 29, 2005 7:24 am

Went from 925 to 921.
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#2126 Postby evilr00t » Mon Aug 29, 2005 7:37 am

049
URNT12 KNHC 291228
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 29/12:09:50Z
B. 29 deg 33 min N
089 deg 34 min W
C. 700 mb 2420 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 123 deg 116 kt
G. 34 deg 034 nm
H. 923 mb
I. 10 C/ 3049 m
J. 18 C/ 3053 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C23
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.03 / 1 nm
P. AF300 2212A KATRINA OB 10
MAX FL WIND 124 KT SE QUAD 11:07:50 Z
SFC CENTER W/IN 5NM OF FL CENTER
EYE WALL WEAKER TO SOUTH
MAX FL TEMP 19C 270 / 10 NM FROM FL CNTR
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#2127 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Aug 29, 2005 7:42 am

Scorpion wrote:Went from 925 to 921.


It's not strenghtening. Pressure has been rising all morning. Latest is 923mb.
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#2128 Postby fady » Mon Aug 29, 2005 7:44 am

URNT40 KWBC 291230
NOAA3 WX12A KATRINA
122030 3009 09020 12010 -0414 063082 +093 +093 065082 064 014
122100 3008 09018 12016 -0439 059082 +093 +092 060085 068 014
122130 3007 09017 12009 -0461 055080 +095 +095 053082 069 013
122200 3005 09015 12021 -0489 055084 +090 +090 054085 071 009
122230 3004 09014 12019 -0523 054087 +096 +094 054087 071 007
122300 3002 09012 12018 -0564 051089 +098 +098 052092 077 008
122330 3001 09010 12018 -0625 053092 +098 +098 053095 104 008
122400 2959 09009 12020 -0685 052095 +097 +097 051098 124 005
122430 2958 09007 12024 -0732 054092 +100 +100 056094 118 007
122500 2957 09006 12022 -0784 055092 +104 +104 056097 122 005
122530 2955 09004 12009 -0847 049078 +104 +104 050081 110 010
122600 2954 09003 12014 -0882 045076 +104 +104 042079 119 001
122630 2953 09001 12026 -0921 043082 +105 +105 043083 127 000
122700 2952 08959 12012 -0981 043077 +109 +109 044078 127 000
122730 2950 08957 12008 -1046 040076 +117 +115 039076 145 000
122800 2949 08955 12015 -1112 040076 +124 +116 041078 999 999
122830 2948 08953 12019 -1168 039081 +129 +114 039085 092 000
122900 2947 08951 12009 -1244 036085 +137 +121 036086 077 008
122930 2946 08949 12062 -1328 037082 +138 +130 036084 079 020
123000 2945 08948 12086 -1434 038078 +133 +133 037081 082 020

Very high surface winds... 145knts in NE quad
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#2129 Postby Scorpion » Mon Aug 29, 2005 7:49 am

Cat 5??
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#2130 Postby evilr00t » Mon Aug 29, 2005 7:51 am

Scorpion wrote:Cat 5??


those are flight level, so the NHC usually uses a reduction factor of 0.9
For Katrina, this hasn't really been the case.

Expect surface winds to be around 0.8*FLW - especially since the winds are over land now

EDIT: I need coffee- that's not flight level, that's SFMR
Last edited by evilr00t on Mon Aug 29, 2005 7:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#2131 Postby Scorpion » Mon Aug 29, 2005 7:53 am

Thats SFMR.
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#2132 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Aug 29, 2005 7:53 am

evilr00t wrote:
Scorpion wrote:Cat 5??


those are flight level, so the NHC usually uses a reduction factor of 0.9
For Katrina, this hasn't really been the case.

Expect surface winds to be around 0.8*FLW - especially since the winds are over land now


That's column is SFMR estimate of surface winds. It may not be accurate.
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#2133 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 29, 2005 7:55 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005

...LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE KATRINA
POUNDING SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM
WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA
EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM CDT...1300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BILOXI MISSISSIPPI.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE
PASSING JUST TO THE EAST OF NEW ORLEANS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH THE WORST OF THE WEATHER FOR THAT CITY OCCURRING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE CIRCULATION
INTERACTS WITH LAND TODAY. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF
HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR
GROUND LEVEL.

KATRINA IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI CIVIL
DEFENSE REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 118 MPH...AND GULFPORT MISSISSIPPI
EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 94 MPH WITH
A GUST TO 100 MPH. BELLE CHASSE LOUISIANA...JUST SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ORLEANS...RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 76 MPH WITH A GUST
TO 88 MPH. A LITTLE EARLIER...BELLE CHASE REPORTED A GUST TO 105
MPH. NEW ORLEANS LAKEFRONT AIRPORT RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 69 MPH WITH A GUST TO 86 MPH.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 923 MB...27.26 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. STORM SURGE FLOODING
OF 10 TO 15 FEET...NEAR THE TOPS OF THE LEVEES...IS POSSIBLE IN THE
GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL
OCCUR ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
COAST.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE TORNADO THREAT AHEAD OF KATRINA CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND
SCATTERED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA... SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

REPEATING THE 8 AM CDT POSITION...29.7 N... 89.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 923 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH
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#2134 Postby Scorpion » Mon Aug 29, 2005 7:55 am

FL winds might be making it down. Remember its not like Ivan where dry air was coming in like crazy.
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#2135 Postby Scorpion » Mon Aug 29, 2005 8:00 am

135 mph seems a little conservative right now.
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#2136 Postby fady » Mon Aug 29, 2005 8:03 am

It is possible that these readings may be somewhat inaccurate but there were multiple reports of +120KT surface winds with that pass through the eyewall.. Should these readings be neglected? not quite sure..wish someone could weigh in a bit
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#2137 Postby cjrciadt » Mon Aug 29, 2005 8:21 am

The SW quad is coming back with vengance on radar. Remember how resilient she was in FL.
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#2138 Postby cjrciadt » Mon Aug 29, 2005 8:33 am

Pressure still lower than Dennis and Emily at there peak (930mb)!!!
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#2139 Postby Solaris » Mon Aug 29, 2005 8:49 am

noaa and af planes still find 125-130 kts flight winds, easily cat 4.
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#2140 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 29, 2005 9:08 am

Anyone see reports of over 116 kts at FL on the current recon mission? I saw the 124 kts, but Katrina was still south of Louisiana then. 116 kts would support 120 mph - Cat 3.
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