Hurricane Katrina - Cat. 5

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Thunder44
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#2141 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Aug 29, 2005 9:27 am

060
URNT12 KNHC 291402
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 29/13:54:20Z
B. 29 deg 58 min N
089 deg 37 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 164 deg 121 kt
G. 085 deg 026 nm
H. 926 mb
I. 14 C/ 2439 m
J. 20 C/ 2442 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. OPEN SW
M. E180/35/25
N. 12345/NA
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 2112A KATRINA OB 25
MAX FL WIND 121 KT E QUAD 13:46:50 Z
FLIGHT ALTITUDE 8000 FT
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#2142 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 29, 2005 9:43 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005

...CENTER OF POWERFUL HURRICANE KATRINA AGAIN MOVING ASHORE...NEAR
THE LOUISIANA-MISSISSIPPI BORDER...CONTINUES POUNDING SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z..ALL HURRICANE WATCHES ARE DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF
MORGAN CITY TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST. THIS POSITION IS
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...ABOUT 35 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST
OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 45 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
BILOXI MISSISSIPPI.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK
THE CENTER WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TODAY AND INTO
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH RISE BUILDINGS
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CENTER MOVES
OVER LAND. HOWEVER...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
AS FAR AS 150 MILES INLAND ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA. SEE INLAND
HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FROM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICES.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 927 MB...27.37 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. STORM SURGE FLOODING
OF 10 TO 15 FEET...NEAR THE TOPS OF THE LEVEES...IS STILL POSSIBLE
IN THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING
IS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO COAST.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...30.2 N... 89.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 927 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT NOON CDT AND 2 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

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#2143 Postby jpigott » Mon Aug 29, 2005 9:51 am

not sure i understand how the pressure can be 927mb but only have winds of 125
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#2144 Postby cjrciadt » Mon Aug 29, 2005 9:55 am

jpigott wrote:not sure i understand how the pressure can be 927mb but only have winds of 125
Katrina is very strange cane:
115 winds at 940mb
175? winds at 902mb
125 winds at 927mb
Looking through the archives, I could not find a storm with pressure below 930mb this long ever over 38+hrs?
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#2145 Postby superfly » Mon Aug 29, 2005 9:59 am

jpigott wrote:not sure i understand how the pressure can be 927mb but only have winds of 125


I'm no expert on this but I think it may be because her wind field is so big so some of the energy has gone to extended the wind field rather than having a more intense eyewall.
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#2146 Postby Solaris » Mon Aug 29, 2005 10:27 am

stilly windy out there:

1510 3018N 08912W 03050 5370 183 124 116 116 126 02685 0000000100

126 kts flight wind...borderline kat 3/4 hurricane.
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#2147 Postby Solaris » Mon Aug 29, 2005 10:31 am

626
URNT12 KNHC 291527
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 29/15:16:50Z
B. 30 deg 19 min N
089 deg 38 min W
C. 700 mb 2497 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 178 deg 127 kt
G. 90 deg 031 nm
H. EXTRAP 932 mb
I. 11 C/ 3049 m
J. 17 C/ 3049 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. OPEN SW
M. C33
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 2212A KATRINA OB 28
MAX FL WIND 127 KT E QUAD 15:06:20 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
FIX MADE OVERLAND
EYE RAGGED
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#2148 Postby JtSmarts » Mon Aug 29, 2005 10:44 am

Flight level winds still fairly strong, not weakening extremely quick.
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#2149 Postby cjrciadt » Mon Aug 29, 2005 10:46 am

JtSmarts wrote:Flight level winds still fairly strong, not weakening extremely quick.
Has there ever been a more resilient cane ever in the Atlantic?
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#2150 Postby Solaris » Mon Aug 29, 2005 10:48 am

an impressive convection cycle just happened...http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/T ... /WV/20.jpg

eye clearing up again!
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#2151 Postby Solaris » Mon Aug 29, 2005 10:57 am

814
SXXX50 KNHC 291553
AF306 2112A KATRINA HDOB 50 KNHC
1543 3027N 08912W 02441 5385 168 118 154 154 119 02058 0000000000
1543. 3028N 08914W 02438 5405 165 116 150 150 118 02035 0000000000
1544 3030N 08916W 02436 5423 164 122 132 132 122 02014 0000000000
1544. 3032N 08917W 02436 5433 163 126 136 136 127 02005 0000000000
1545 3035N 08918W 02441 5437 158 127 136 136 127 02007 0000000000
1545. 3037N 08920W 02439 5440 152 127 134 134 128 02002 0000000000
1546 3040N 08921W 02439 5440 146 129 132 132 130 02001 0000000000
1546. 3042N 08923W 02440 5441 138 128 132 132 129 02001 0000000000
1547 3043N 08926W 02438 5452 133 123 130 130 127 01989 0000000000
1547. 3044N 08929W 02439 5454 129 124 136 136 128 01987 0000000000
1548 3046N 08928W 02439 5437 126 120 130 130 125 02004 0000000000
1548. 3045N 08927W 02437 5435 127 117 130 130 120 02004 0000000000
1549 3046N 08926W 02439 5426 128 116 128 128 117 02015 0000000000
1549. 3046N 08925W 02440 5416 129 120 128 128 121 02025 0000000000
1550 3046N 08924W 02434 5415 131 123 130 130 123 02021 0000000000
1550. 3046N 08924W 02438 5411 134 122 130 130 123 02028 0000000000
1551 3046N 08923W 02439 5406 135 119 126 126 120 02034 0000000000
1551. 3046N 08922W 02437 5402 137 119 126 126 119 02036 0000000000
1552 3045N 08921W 02441 5400 137 117 126 126 117 02043 0000000000
1552. 3045N 08920W 02439 5398 138 117 126 126 118 02042 0000000000

still winds up to 130 knots
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#2152 Postby drezee » Mon Aug 29, 2005 10:58 am

130kts reported well after the storm is inland!!

814
SXXX50 KNHC 291553
AF306 2112A KATRINA HDOB 50 KNHC
1543 3027N 08912W 02441 5385 168 118 154 154 119 02058 0000000000
1543. 3028N 08914W 02438 5405 165 116 150 150 118 02035 0000000000
1544 3030N 08916W 02436 5423 164 122 132 132 122 02014 0000000000
1544. 3032N 08917W 02436 5433 163 126 136 136 127 02005 0000000000
1545 3035N 08918W 02441 5437 158 127 136 136 127 02007 0000000000
1545. 3037N 08920W 02439 5440 152 127 134 134 128 02002 0000000000
1546 3040N 08921W 02439 5440 146 129 132 132 130 02001 0000000000
1546. 3042N 08923W 02440 5441 138 128 132 132 129 02001 0000000000
1547 3043N 08926W 02438 5452 133 123 130 130 127 01989 0000000000

1547. 3044N 08929W 02439 5454 129 124 136 136 128 01987 0000000000
1548 3046N 08928W 02439 5437 126 120 130 130 125 02004 0000000000
1548. 3045N 08927W 02437 5435 127 117 130 130 120 02004 0000000000
1549 3046N 08926W 02439 5426 128 116 128 128 117 02015 0000000000
1549. 3046N 08925W 02440 5416 129 120 128 128 121 02025 0000000000
1550 3046N 08924W 02434 5415 131 123 130 130 123 02021 0000000000
1550. 3046N 08924W 02438 5411 134 122 130 130 123 02028 0000000000
1551 3046N 08923W 02439 5406 135 119 126 126 120 02034 0000000000
1551. 3046N 08922W 02437 5402 137 119 126 126 119 02036 0000000000
1552 3045N 08921W 02441 5400 137 117 126 126 117 02043 0000000000
1552. 3045N 08920W 02439 5398 138 117 126 126 118 02042 0000000000
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#2153 Postby Scorpion » Mon Aug 29, 2005 10:59 am

Inland MS is going to get raked pretty good.
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#2154 Postby cjrciadt » Mon Aug 29, 2005 10:59 am

135mph at the surface Holy...................
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#2155 Postby StormsAhead » Mon Aug 29, 2005 11:01 am

URNT40 KWBC 291530
NOAA3 WX12A KATRINA
152030 2747 08235 3023 +0093 185024 +224 +202 182026 026 000
152100 2747 08233 3013 +0092 185021 +224 +206 188022 018 001
152130 2748 08231 3004 +0091 188021 +225 +205 190022 017 001
152200 2748 08229 3028 +0083 188021 +225 +206 186022 015 001
152230 2748 08227 3032 +0080 186024 +224 +204 189025 021 001
152300 2749 08225 2991 +0079 182020 +225 +208 182020 013 000
152330 2750 08224 2422 +0045 180021 +240 +216 179022 034 001
152400 2752 08223 1906 -0009 175020 +254 +221 174021 999 999
152430 2753 08222 1700 -0046 172017 +261 +223 175018 150 000
152500 2754 08221 1722 -0060 171018 +259 +227 172020 999 999
152530 2756 08221 1705 -0060 174015 +259 +231 170016 999 999
152600 2757 08223 1729 -0041 172017 +259 +229 170018 105 000
152630 2756 08224 1686 -0040 172019 +261 +228 171021 999 999
152700 2756 08225 1698 -0030 176018 +261 +227 176018 063 002
152730 2755 08226 1690 -0048 177019 +262 +227 180020 999 999
152800 2755 08227 1399 -0045 173019 +269 +228 177020 999 999
152830 2754 08228 947 -0062 167018 +281 +237 165018 037 002
152900 2753 08229 668 -0092 169017 +291 +240 165017 087 000
152930 2752 08230 423 -0120 172016 +302 +240 172017 999 999
153000 2751 08231 106 +6904 160012 +320 +248 166015 999 999

I definitely want to say this is a suspect observation...maybe it has problems over/near land?
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#2156 Postby Hyperstorm » Mon Aug 29, 2005 11:07 am

I think those SFMR values are extremely suspect. I highly doubt winds are reaching 150 kts anywhere at the surface. The storm is well inland and pressure is rising.

Who can understand these radiometers. When the storm was at its peak strength in the Gulf of Mexico, the SFMR values were MUCH lower than winds reported a Flight-Level. Now that the storm is weakening with a higher pressure and moving inland, it shows stronger winds than reported at Flight-Level.

Some adjustments to these instruments should definitely be in order...
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#2157 Postby StormsAhead » Mon Aug 29, 2005 11:12 am

Hyperstorm wrote:I think those SFMR values are extremely suspect. I highly doubt winds are reaching 150 kts anywhere at the surface. The storm is well inland and pressure is rising.

Who can understand these radiometers. When the storm was at its peak strength in the Gulf of Mexico, the SFMR values were MUCH lower than winds reported a Flight-Level. Now that the storm is weakening with a higher pressure and moving inland, it shows stronger winds than reported at Flight-Level.

Some adjustments to these instruments should definitely be in order...


I agree, but it seems to me that the NHC likes the SFMR quite a bit. They upgraded Katrina to a hurricane based on it, then lowered winds to 165 based on it and only it. They give it so much weight, I wonder what they will choose to do now.
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#2158 Postby StormsAhead » Mon Aug 29, 2005 11:22 am

SXXX50 KNHC 291613
AF306 2112A KATRINA HDOB 52 KNHC
1603 3039N 08911W 02438 5374 155 118 122 122 119 02066 0000000000
1603. 3039N 08910W 02438 5372 157 117 124 124 118 02068 0000000000
1604 3038N 08910W 02440 5369 159 117 126 126 118 02072 0000000000
1604. 3037N 08910W 02438 5371 160 118 122 122 118 02069 0000000000
1605 3037N 08909W 02439 5373 161 119 122 122 120 02067 0000000000
1605. 3036N 08909W 02439 5373 163 118 124 124 118 02068 0000000000
1606 3035N 08909W 02437 5373 164 118 126 126 119 02067 0000000000
1606. 3034N 08909W 02440 5371 165 116 126 126 117 02071 0000000000
1607 3034N 08909W 02438 5369 167 116 126 126 117 02071 0000000000
1607. 3033N 08908W 02438 5367 169 114 126 126 115 02073 0000000000
1608 3032N 08908W 02440 5364 170 113 126 126 114 02078 0000000000
1608. 3031N 08908W 02439 5360 171 112 128 128 113 02081 0000000000
1609 3031N 08907W 02437 5355 173 113 130 130 113 02084 0000000000
1609. 3030N 08907W 02437 5348 174 111 134 134 112 02091 0000000000
1610 3029N 08906W 02436 5341 176 109 128 128 109 02097 0000000000
1610. 3029N 08905W 02440 5332 178 102 124 124 104 02110 0000000000
1611 3028N 08904W 02440 5325 178 101 122 122 103 02117 0000000000
1611. 3027N 08904W 02439 5320 179 102 130 130 103 02121 0000000000
1612 3026N 08904W 02440 5316 180 099 148 148 100 02125 0000000000
1612. 3025N 08904W 02437 5315 181 098 152 152 100 02124 0000000000

120 knots FL...
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#2159 Postby StormsAhead » Mon Aug 29, 2005 11:28 am

SXXX50 KNHC 291623
AF306 2112A KATRINA HDOB 53 KNHC
1613 3025N 08905W 02441 5318 183 099 158 156 100 02125 0000000000
1613. 3024N 08906W 02438 5324 184 101 162 156 101 02115 0000000000
1614 3024N 08907W 02438 5330 185 103 166 154 105 02110 0000000000
1614. 3024N 08909W 02438 5341 184 101 160 154 103 02099 0000000000
1615 3026N 08910W 02438 5352 183 109 160 154 110 02088 0000000000
1615. 3028N 08909W 02440 5352 179 109 154 154 110 02090 0000000000
1616 3031N 08908W 02436 5351 174 109 138 138 110 02087 0000000000
1616. 3033N 08907W 02439 5347 171 114 140 140 115 02094 0000000000
1617 3036N 08906W 02435 5342 169 113 124 124 115 02095 0000000000
1617. 3036N 08905W 02441 5333 169 108 136 136 111 02110 0000000100
1618 3035N 08904W 02441 5327 170 102 134 134 103 02116 0000000000
1618. 3034N 08904W 02438 5323 172 104 136 136 106 02116 0000000000
1619 3033N 08903W 02440 5318 173 103 150 150 106 02124 0000000000
1619. 3033N 08902W 02439 5312 173 100 140 140 101 02129 0000000000
1620 3032N 08902W 02437 5308 175 099 146 146 100 02132 0000000000
1620. 3031N 08901W 02438 5303 177 098 148 148 099 02137 0000000000
1621 3030N 08901W 02436 5300 177 097 150 150 098 02138 0000000000
1621. 3030N 08900W 02441 5295 180 095 142 142 097 02149 0000000000
1622 3029N 08859W 02439 5287 182 091 138 138 091 02154 0000000000
1622. 3028N 08859W 02438 5281 183 090 136 136 091 02159 0000000000

115 knots
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#2160 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Aug 29, 2005 11:36 am

Does it seem like they finding more stronger winds since this storm made landfall? I keep seeing plenty of reports of 100mph+ winds at flight level, more so than then they did when Katrina was over water.
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