Tropical Depression Lee,Last Advisorie

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cycloneye
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Tropical Depression Lee,Last Advisorie

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 31, 2005 9:34 am


Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast/Advisory Number 5


Statement as of 15:00Z on August 31, 2005



tropical depression center located near 28.8n 50.4w at 31/1500z
position accurate within 60 nm

present movement toward the northeast or 40 degrees at 11 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1009 mb
Max sustained winds 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 28.8n 50.4w at 31/1500z
at 31/1200z center was located near 28.4n 50.8w

forecast valid 01/0000z 30.0n 49.0w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 60ne 60se 0sw 0nw.

Forecast valid 01/1200z 32.0n 48.0w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 60ne 60se 0sw 0nw.

Forecast valid 02/0000z 34.0n 47.0w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 60ne 60se 0sw 0nw.

Forecast valid 02/1200z 36.0n 46.0w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.

Forecast valid 03/1200z 38.0n 45.0w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 60ne 60se 0sw 0nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 04/1200z 40.0n 44.0w
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Outlook valid 05/1200z 44.0n 39.5w...extratropical
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 28.8n 50.4w

next advisory at 31/2100z

forecaster Avila



Last edited by cycloneye on Fri Sep 02, 2005 6:51 am, edited 7 times in total.
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#2 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 31, 2005 9:36 am

Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 5


Statement as of 11:00 am AST on August 31, 2005


...Tropical Depression Thirteen regenerates between Bermuda and the
Azores...no threat to land...

at 11 am AST...1500z...the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen
was located near latitude 28.8 north...longitude 50.4 west or
about 890 miles...1430 km...east-southeast of Bermuda and about
1485 miles...2390 km...west-southwest of the Azores.

The depression is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph...20
km/hr. A turn to the north-northeast with a gradual decrease in
forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours. On this
track...the cyclone will be moving over the open waters of the
North Atlantic.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. The depression could become a tropical storm later today.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb...29.80 inches.

Repeating the 11 am AST position...28.8 N... 50.4 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 35 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1009 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 PM AST.

Forecaster Avila

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#3 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 31, 2005 9:39 am

Image

This is what I call a true fish as no land is in sight.
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#4 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 31, 2005 9:43 am


606
WTNT43 KNHC 311439
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WHICH BECAME A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO HAS RE-GENERATED INTO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION STATUS. THIS IS BASED ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF 2.0
FROM TAFB AND SAB AND A SSM/I MICROWAVE IMAGE AROUND 10Z WHICH
SHOWS A CONVECTIVE RING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE
BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER BUT THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED. IT
APPEARS THAT THE DEPRESSION IS VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
AND IF IT NOT ONE NOW...IT COULD BE ONE LATER TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 040 DEGREES AT 11
KNOTS BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW TO THE
NORTHWEST. STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO BE POORLY DEFINED
DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD TURN MORE TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW TO THE
NORTHWEST AND A BUILDING HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS TRACK IS IN
BETWEEN THE GFDL AND CLIMATOLOGY.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/1500Z 28.8N 50.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 30.0N 49.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 32.0N 48.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 02/0000Z 34.0N 47.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 02/1200Z 36.0N 46.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 03/1200Z 38.0N 45.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 04/1200Z 40.0N 44.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 05/1200Z 44.0N 39.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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#5 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 31, 2005 1:46 pm

They are upgrading TD 13 to TS Lee the 12th of the season.
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#6 Postby inotherwords » Wed Aug 31, 2005 1:47 pm

Wish they could all look like that.

Now THAT's wishcasting!
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#7 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 31, 2005 1:49 pm


TROPICAL STORM LEE (AL132005) ON 20050831 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050831 1800 050901 0600 050901 1800 050902 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.9N 49.9W 31.0N 49.2W 31.8N 48.9W 32.3N 48.2W
BAMM 29.9N 49.9W 31.2N 49.4W 32.2N 48.9W 32.8N 48.1W
A98E 29.9N 49.9W 31.5N 48.2W 32.0N 45.7W 31.6N 44.1W
LBAR 29.9N 49.9W 31.1N 48.8W 32.2N 47.9W 32.9N 46.7W
SHIP 35KTS 43KTS 48KTS 51KTS
DSHP 35KTS 43KTS 48KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050902 1800 050903 1800 050904 1800 050905 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 32.2N 47.3W 31.3N 47.3W 30.5N 47.6W 28.6N 49.2W
BAMM 33.1N 47.7W 33.9N 47.6W 34.2N 46.1W 32.6N 46.9W
A98E 30.8N 42.7W 29.7N 43.0W 28.7N 43.7W 25.8N 44.7W
LBAR 33.2N 45.0W 33.8N 40.0W 34.9N 36.3W 35.5N 35.2W
SHIP 52KTS 46KTS 32KTS 15KTS
DSHP 52KTS 46KTS 32KTS 15KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.9N LONCUR = 49.9W DIRCUR = 40DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 28.0N LONM12 = 51.6W DIRM12 = 44DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 25.5N LONM24 = 53.6W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Here are the 18:00z models which caused the upgrade to a tropical storm at 35kts.
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#8 Postby fci » Wed Aug 31, 2005 1:54 pm

Now if they all could be like Lee, I would love to see us get through Wilma to Alpha, Beta.....
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#9 Postby Buck » Wed Aug 31, 2005 1:56 pm

Already to Lee and It's not yet the first day of September.
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#10 Postby therealashe » Wed Aug 31, 2005 2:02 pm

I was almost afraid to open this thread.


<sigh> and it's only Sept.


Signed,

Weather weary in FL
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#11 Postby Andrew92 » Wed Aug 31, 2005 2:03 pm

On this day in 1933, the 12th storm of that year formed as well. Of course, in 1995, we were already tracking Luis.

Now we wait for Maria to form....she has until 9/8 to beat the record, but further discussion on that should be done in a different topic.

-Andrew92
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#12 Postby Brent » Wed Aug 31, 2005 2:09 pm

10 more named storms and it's Hello Alpha.

:eek:
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#13 Postby PuertoRicoLibre » Wed Aug 31, 2005 2:19 pm

It seems that Maria is likely to form out of Invest92, according to the models Luis shared. And it is going to happen well before Sept. 8., thus pushing us ahead of the 1995 M storm. When was the M storm formed in 1933?
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#14 Postby senorpepr » Wed Aug 31, 2005 2:22 pm

PuertoRicoLibre wrote:It seems that Maria is likely to form out of Invest92, according to the models Luis shared. And it is going to happen well before Sept. 8., thus pushing us ahead of the 1995 M storm. When was the M storm formed in 1933?


In 1995, the 13th TS formed on Sep 13.

The record, however, is shared by 1933 and 1936... Sep 8.

We may not have broke a record with Lee... but it looks like Maria will...
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#15 Postby Buck » Wed Aug 31, 2005 2:30 pm

And possibly Nate as well..
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#16 Postby Courtnay Mccullers » Wed Aug 31, 2005 2:46 pm

Opal didn't form until October in 1995.
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#17 Postby lester » Wed Aug 31, 2005 3:03 pm

Buck wrote:Already to Lee and It's not yet the first day of September.

i know :eek:
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#18 Postby Brent » Wed Aug 31, 2005 3:28 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST WED AUG 31 2005

...TROPICAL STORM LEE...THE 12TH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON...FORMS
BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE AZORES...POSES NO THREAT TO LAND...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS ESTIMATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.7 WEST OR ABOUT 900
MILES...1445 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1390 MILES...2240
KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

LEE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...30.5 N... 49.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA
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#19 Postby Canelaw99 » Wed Aug 31, 2005 3:42 pm

I'm beginning to think we need to start a fundraising campaign for the forecasters at the NHC. They're all going to need a vacation at the end of this season! :lol:
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#20 Postby dwg71 » Wed Aug 31, 2005 4:02 pm

Does anybody know what date 13 was classified as a depression? Was it yesterday?
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