Tropical Depression Lee,Last Advisorie

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#41 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 31, 2005 8:44 pm

Team Ragnarok wrote:This is a couple hours old, but SSD doesn't seem to agree with the models:

31/2345 UTC 30.7N 49.1W T2.5/2.5 LEE


Umm that's interesting.
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#42 Postby Scorpion » Wed Aug 31, 2005 9:21 pm

Hey, at least another name down so we can get to Alpha :wink: .
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#43 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 31, 2005 9:32 pm

WTNT23 KNHC 010231
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132005
0300Z THU SEP 01 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 49.1W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 49.1W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 49.3W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 32.2N 48.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 33.0N 48.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 33.8N 48.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 34.5N 48.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 35.5N 49.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.2N 49.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN
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#44 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 31, 2005 9:33 pm

TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2005

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED
WITH LEE HAS BECOME MUCH LESS ORGANIZED. IN FACT...THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
EXISTS...BUT IN THE INTEREST OF CONTINUITY WE WILL ASSUME A CENTER
STILL EXISTS UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER THIS CONVECTION IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELONGATED AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF A NEW AND
EXPOSED CIRCULATION CENTER. BASED ON THE DEGREDATION OF THE CLOUD
PATTERN...LEE IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION WITH AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS. GIVEN THE TREND IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE
APPARENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...AND AN UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT...THE FORECAST HOLDS THE INTENSITY AT 30 KT THROUGH 36
HOURS AND DISSIPATES LEE AFTER 72 HOURS. IF THE SATELLITE PATTERN
DOES NOT IMPROVE SHORTLY...THIS FORECAST COULD BE GENEROUS.

LEE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A MUCH LARGER
DEEP-LAYER LOW LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST. ACCORDINGLY...THE
DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS AND THE CURRENT MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 025/09. THE DEPRESSION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE DEEP-LAYER LOW
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS THEN SLOW AND TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST.
IN FACT...THE GFS STALLS THE DEPRESSION BEYOND 36 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND IS A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0300Z 31.2N 49.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 32.2N 48.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 33.0N 48.4W 30 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 33.8N 48.4W 30 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 34.5N 48.7W 25 KT
72HR VT 04/0000Z 35.5N 49.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

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#45 Postby Andrew92 » Wed Aug 31, 2005 10:19 pm

I smell a Grace-like debate in the makings here.......anyone else?
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#46 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Aug 31, 2005 10:55 pm

Why doe's every time something did not turn into a Katrina or Emily. We call it a waste of name? Lee was a tropical storm by the data in weaken slightly. In now appears to be pulling its mid levels again. So I expect it will be reupgraded.

The system to the southeast is even better organized.
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#47 Postby Andrew92 » Wed Aug 31, 2005 11:03 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Why doe's every time something did not turn into a Katrina or Emily. We call it a waste of name? Lee was a tropical storm by the data in weaken slightly. In now appears to be pulling its mid levels again. So I expect it will be reupgraded.

The system to the southeast is even better organized.


Well, the discussion does say this:

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION EXISTS


That alone is my basis for why I think there will be a debate similar to the Grace debate of whether or not it was even a cyclone.

-Andrew92
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#48 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Aug 31, 2005 11:26 pm

Press the floater over the central Atlatnic. You will see a well defined LLC with the MLC to the southeast slowly becoming better organized. In which will wrap around.

Then look to the southeast of that system on the Gulf of Mexico Floater. You will see a system more organized then LEE.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html
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#49 Postby P.K. » Thu Sep 01, 2005 5:03 am

Down to a 1.5 now:
01/0615 UTC 31.9N 51.2W T1.5/2.5 LEE -- Atlantic Ocean

WTNT43 KNHC 010832
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 01 2005

A REVIEW OF MICROWAVE DATA STARTING AT ABOUT 31/1720Z SUGGESTS THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF LEE MOVED NORTHWARD BETWEEN 31/1800Z-
01/0000Z AND NORTHWESTWARD SINCE THEN...AND DID NOT FOLLOW THE
CONVECTION NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS 50W. AT THE MOMENT...A
WELL-DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS EXISTS ABOUT 90 N MI W OF THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION...AND WELL TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY POSITION. THUS...THE INITIAL POSITION IS A CONSIDERABLE
RE-LOCATION FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WHILE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE WEAKENING...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT BASED
ON A 29 KT WIND REPORTED BY SHIP ELTZ7.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/10. THE CENTER OF LEE
APPEARS TO HAVE MADE A PARTIAL LOOP AS IT MERGES WITH A BROAD
NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT WAS FORMING TO ITS NORTH. MOST
LARGE-SCALE MODELS HAD A POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE CYCLONE...WITH
THE CENTER TOO FAR EAST AND A FORECAST TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
THE CANADIAN MODEL HAD THE BEST INITIALIZATION AND DRIFTS LEE
NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HR. THE VARIOUS BAM MODELS CONTINUE THE
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 24 HR AND THEN TURN LEE NORTHWARD. THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A CONSIDERABLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK
BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION... CALLING FOR A SLOW
NORTHWARD MOTION IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME ERRATIC LOOPING MOTION DURING THE FIRST 12
HR OR SO AS LEE AND THE OTHER LOW FINISH THEIR MERGER.

THE MERGER OF LEE AND THE NON-TROPICAL LOW CALLS INTO QUESTION HOW
TROPICAL LEE ACTUALLY IS
...ESPECIALLY SINCE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR JUST WEST OF THE
SURFACE CENTER. NEITHER THE GFDL OR SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR
STRENGTHENING FOR 96 HR...AND THE CANADIAN BREAKS THE CIRCULATION
OPEN INTO A TROUGH AFTER 72 HR. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE
THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY ON THE PREMISE THAT CONVECTION
COULD RE-FORM FOR A TIME NEAR THE SURFACE CENTER. HOWEVER...IF
THIS DOES NOT OCCUR...LEE COULD BE DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT LOW OR
TO EXTRATROPCIAL STATUS WITH 24 HR.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0900Z 31.9N 51.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 32.7N 51.4W 30 KT
24HR VT 02/0600Z 33.4N 51.6W 30 KT
36HR VT 02/1800Z 34.6N 51.6W 30 KT
48HR VT 03/0600Z 35.8N 51.6W 25 KT
72HR VT 04/0600Z 38.0N 51.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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#50 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 01, 2005 9:33 am

...Tropical Depression Lee appears to be losing its tropical
characteristics...

at 11 am AST...1500z...the center of Tropical Depression
Lee was located near latitude 31.9 north...longitude 51.5 west or
about 780 miles...1255 km...east of Bermuda and about 1445
miles...2325 km...west of the Azores.

The depression has been moving little during the past fewhours but
it should begin to move toward the northwest near 3 mph
... 6 km/hr...later today

maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. There is a possibility that Lee becomes a weak low later
today or Friday.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb...29.83 inches.

Repeating the 11 am AST position...31.9 N... 51.5 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 3 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 35 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1010 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 PM AST.

Forecaster Avila
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#51 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 01, 2005 9:35 am

Tropical Depression Lee Discussion Number 9


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 01, 2005



visible satellite imagery shows a large circulation with a band of
deep convection well to the east of the center. It appears that the
cyclone is losing its tropical characteristics. However...we will
keep the system as a 30-kt tropical depression at this time based
primarily on a 31-knot wind observation form the ship eltz7 at 12z.
The official intensity forecast calls for weakening since the
depression is near an upper low. The system has a large low-level
circulation and the ocean is not cool. Therefore...some convection
may redevelop near the center.

The depression has been moving little during the past few hours but
it should begin to move slowly toward the northwest about 3 knots
and then northward around a high pressure system centered to the
east of the depression.
Forecaster Avila


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 01/1500z 31.9n 51.5w 30 kt
12hr VT 02/0000z 32.3n 51.8w 25 kt...remnant low
24hr VT 02/1200z 33.5n 52.0w 25 kt...remnant low
36hr VT 03/0000z 34.5n 52.0w 25 kt...remnant low
48hr VT 03/1200z 36.1n 52.0w 25 kt...dissipating
72hr VT 04/1200z...dissipated

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#52 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 01, 2005 3:25 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 01 2005

THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A
TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEFINING THE CENTER. THE CONVECTION IS
LIMITED TO A BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS
MORE TYPICAL OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT BECAUSE THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SOME CONVECTION REDEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER...IT IS
OPTED TO KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A 30-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS
TIME. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND THE DEPRESSION MAY BE A
REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

LEE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS.
THE CYCLONE IS A SHALLOW SYSTEM SO IT SHOULD MOVE ON A GENERAL
NORTHWARD TRACK STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE DEPRESSION.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 32.4N 51.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 32.9N 51.7W 25 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 34.0N 52.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 03/0600Z 35.5N 52.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 03/1800Z 37.5N 52.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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#53 Postby Coredesat » Thu Sep 01, 2005 8:29 pm

01/2345 UTC 32.4N 51.9W T1.0/1.5 LEE

Lee's finished. Satellite indicates that Lee is just a low cloud swirl, with the nearest convection being sheared apart far east of the center. 11 PM should be the final advisory.
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#54 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 01, 2005 9:27 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST THU SEP 01 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE DISSIPATING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF DISSIPATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION
LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.3 WEST OR
ABOUT 730 MILES...1175 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1475
MILES...2375 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH
...11 KM/HR. THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
WINDS NEAR 30 MPH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...32.4 N... 52.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB


See you Lee in 2011.
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#55 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 01, 2005 9:29 pm

It got us closer to Alpha at least.

:hoola:
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#56 Postby Hurricanehink » Thu Sep 01, 2005 9:35 pm

I'm surprised they mention the possibility for regeneration, but I suppose they do that for most tropical cyclones in the Atlantic.
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#57 Postby Andrew92 » Thu Sep 01, 2005 10:05 pm

Aww, what a shame....NOT

Lee, :Door: and don't get hit too hard on the way out. See ya in 2011!

-Andrew92
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#58 Postby gilbert88 » Fri Sep 02, 2005 3:49 am

Wow... after looking at the track on the Unisys site, this was truly an ephemeral TS.
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#59 Postby Jim Hughes » Fri Sep 02, 2005 6:01 am

Andrew92 wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Why doe's every time something did not turn into a Katrina or Emily. We call it a waste of name? Lee was a tropical storm by the data in weaken slightly. In now appears to be pulling its mid levels again. So I expect it will be reupgraded.

The system to the southeast is even better organized.


Well, the discussion does say this:

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION EXISTS


That alone is my basis for why I think there will be a debate similar to the Grace debate of whether or not it was even a cyclone.

-Andrew92


I totally agree with you and this is why I spoke about a possible conflict of interest some time back regarding NOAA's long term outlooks and the NHC forecasting individual storms. NOAA might have been thrown the "L" bone here. Or at least it could look that way. Storms this year have had a tendancy to be always bumped up or kept at a particular strength when they were not sure about certain things. I hope this reasoning is used during the upcoming years when the activity level is forecasted to be below normal. NOAA never use to make these outlooks years ago during the quiet times.


Jim
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