Tropical Storm Maria Advisories

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Tropical Storm Maria Advisories

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 01, 2005 8:22 am

Here goes another one this one ex91L.At 11 AM first advisorie.
Last edited by cycloneye on Sat Sep 10, 2005 6:11 am, edited 41 times in total.
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#2 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 01, 2005 8:27 am


TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL142005) ON 20050901 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050901 1200 050902 0000 050902 1200 050903 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.8N 45.5W 20.4N 47.6W 21.7N 49.5W 23.2N 51.4W
BAMM 18.8N 45.5W 20.1N 47.4W 21.2N 49.1W 22.4N 51.0W
A98E 18.8N 45.5W 19.3N 48.4W 20.2N 50.8W 21.7N 52.8W
LBAR 18.8N 45.5W 20.1N 47.5W 21.3N 49.5W 22.6N 51.2W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 51KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050903 1200 050904 1200 050905 1200 050906 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.7N 53.4W 28.2N 56.9W 32.3N 59.0W 36.9N 58.2W
BAMM 23.6N 52.9W 26.4N 56.5W 29.9N 59.2W 33.9N 59.6W
A98E 23.4N 54.7W 27.8N 58.0W 32.5N 59.2W 37.9N 57.8W
LBAR 24.3N 52.5W 28.0N 54.3W 31.4N 55.1W 34.2N 55.6W
SHIP 59KTS 72KTS 80KTS 86KTS
DSHP 59KTS 72KTS 80KTS 86KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.8N LONCUR = 45.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 17.6N LONM12 = 42.8W DIRM12 = 301DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 16.3N LONM24 = 40.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



The models say AL14 so yes it will be so at 11 AM.Also NRL has it as noname.
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#3 Postby cjrciadt » Thu Sep 01, 2005 8:34 am

I'm afraid we might be doing every other day in Sept. Did the NHC add the Alpha, Beta, Gamma names yet?
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#4 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 01, 2005 8:35 am

92L looks to be a TD soon as well...
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#5 Postby Hyperstorm » Thu Sep 01, 2005 9:41 am

Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 1


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 01, 2005



Latest satellite Dvorak classifications indicate that a tropical
depression has formed in the central tropical Atlantic about 1000
miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. First visible imagery
showed a well defined low-level circulation near an area of deep
convection to the north. However...since that time the low-level
circulation has become less defined and the convection has weakened
as an upper-level low to the southwest is producing shear over the
depression. Global models agree that the upper low should move west
and separate itself from the system...thereby reducing the shear.

Model guidance are giving conflicting signals...with the GFS and
GFDL models dissipating the system in about 48 hours...and the
SHIPS intensity guidance showing steady strengthening to hurricane
strength beyond 48 hours. The official forecast will indicate slow
strengthening in about 24 hours as the combination of lighter shear
and warmer water should provide more favorable conditions...taking
the system to 55 kt at 120 hours which is considerably less than
the 86 kt SHIPS is forecasting at that time.

The initial motion is 285/14. The depression is moving around the
western periphery of a deep-layered ridge over the eastern
Atlantic. The system is expected to slow down over the next day or
two as it approaches a weakness in the ridge near 50w. Global
models are in agreement on the presence of a mid/upper level trough
moving south between Bermuda and the Leeward Islands. This feature
should eventually turn the cyclone to the northwest and then north
beyond 72 hours as the deep-layered ridge amplifies to the east.
The forecast track is in general agreement with the dynamical model
suite through 48 hours...then is close to the NOGAPS model beyond
48 hours.

Forecaster Molleda/Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 01/1500z 19.0n 46.1w 30 kt
12hr VT 02/0000z 19.6n 48.0w 30 kt
24hr VT 02/1200z 20.4n 50.4w 35 kt
36hr VT 03/0000z 21.2n 52.3w 40 kt
48hr VT 03/1200z 22.1n 54.0w 45 kt
72hr VT 04/1200z 24.0n 57.0w 50 kt
96hr VT 05/1200z 26.5n 59.0w 50 kt
120hr VT 06/1200z 31.0n 60.5w 55 kt
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#6 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 01, 2005 9:47 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST THU SEP 01 2005

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 46.1 WEST OR ABOUT 1115 MILES...1795 KM...EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH
...26 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...19.0 N... 46.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Sep 01, 2005 10:32 am

Image

GOOD CIRCULATION, POOR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE!
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#8 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 01, 2005 10:42 am

Nice swirl...
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#9 Postby Swimdude » Thu Sep 01, 2005 11:39 am

Dear Lord, these storms are coming and going faster than I can track them! :eek:

Welcome to September, folks.
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#10 Postby hurricanefreak1988 » Thu Sep 01, 2005 1:35 pm

All aboard! The Cape Verde train is now boarding. :wink:
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#11 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 01, 2005 3:29 pm

TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 01 2005

THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SOUTHEAST OF THE
MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CAUSING THE
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH SHOULD PLACE THE DEPRESSION UNDER
A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LESS SHEAR. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SPLIT IN FORECAST INTENSITIES...
WITH ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS EXCEPT THE UKMET MODEL DISSIPATING
THE SYSTEM IN 48-72 HOURS...WHILE THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE
BRINGING THE SYSTEM TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.
THE FORECAST INTENSITY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...WHICH KEEPS THE SYSTEM BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOR
12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY SLOW STRENGTHENING. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS IS
A VERY LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10...SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS MOTION. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST AND
AN UPPER LOW REMAINS NEAR 65W BETWEEN BERMUDA AND PUERTO RICO.
DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE CHANGE IN THE INITIAL MOTION...THE TRACK IS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND REMAINS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SUITE THROUGH 48 HOURS.
BEYOND THIS TIME...THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A GENERAL MOTION TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND
THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST.

FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 19.6N 46.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 20.3N 48.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 21.3N 49.7W 35 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 22.5N 51.4W 40 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 23.7N 52.9W 45 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 26.5N 55.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 29.5N 57.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 06/1800Z 33.0N 58.0W 55 KT
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#12 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Sep 01, 2005 6:17 pm

The latest satellite shows this system is becoming better organized. As of now the MLC or convection is becoming inline on top of the LLC. Outflow tot he northwest/north is becoming good. The LLC is becoming better defined/stronger. I think this will be upgraded to a tropical storm.
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#13 Postby EDR1222 » Thu Sep 01, 2005 8:30 pm

Looks like we will have another named system soon!
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#14 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 01, 2005 9:04 pm

Maria... we see you. Now be a good girl and go fish. :lol:
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#15 Postby rainstorm » Thu Sep 01, 2005 9:13 pm

it should drift for awhile, but i dont see it as a threat
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#16 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 01, 2005 9:47 pm

702
WTNT34 KNHC 020241
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST THU SEP 01 2005

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN ATLANTIC...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 47.4 WEST OR
ABOUT 1035 MILES...1665 KM... EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH... 19
KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...20.4 N... 47.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB


$$



687
WTNT24 KNHC 020241
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005
0300Z FRI SEP 02 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 47.4W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 47.4W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 47.0W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 21.2N 48.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 22.4N 50.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 23.9N 51.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 25.5N 53.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 29.0N 55.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 31.5N 56.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 34.0N 56.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 47.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

FORECASTER KNABB

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#17 Postby senorpepr » Fri Sep 02, 2005 4:30 am

000
WTNT34 KNHC 020831
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST FRI SEP 02 2005

...DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.1 WEST OR ABOUT
990 MILES...1595 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...
17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...20.6 N... 48.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN


$$


000
WTNT44 KNHC 020831
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 02 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN REMAINS IN A SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT THIS MORNING...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER PARTLY EXPOSED
AT THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF A RECTANGULAR CONVECTIVE MASS WITH TOPS
COLDER THAN -70C. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM ALL
AGENCIES...SO THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/9...JUST A TRIFLE TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THERE IS OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE TRACK FORECAST. THE DEPRESSION IS
BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH/WEAKNESS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THIS
PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE A INITIAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. ALL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS
SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK WILL FOLLOW IT. THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 24
HR...A LITTLE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BY 120 HR...AND A LITTLE
FASTER.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. LARGE-SCALE
MODELS SUGGEST THE DEPRESSION WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY SHEAR. SEVERAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFDL...DISSIPATE
THE SYSTEM BEFORE 120 HR. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE SHIPS MODEL
CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 84 HR...AND THE
ECMWF HOLDS ON TO IT THROUGH 120 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES... CALLING FOR GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
WHILE THE DEPRESSION IS NOT FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM FOR
24 HR...ANY PERSISTENT BURST CONVECTION COULD CAUSE IT TO BECOME A
STORM AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME IN THE NEXT 24 HR.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0900Z 20.6N 48.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 21.6N 49.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 23.2N 50.9W 35 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 25.0N 52.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 26.8N 53.7W 40 KT
72HR VT 05/0600Z 29.5N 55.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 06/0600Z 32.0N 56.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 07/0600Z 34.5N 56.5W 50 KT
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#18 Postby cjrciadt » Fri Sep 02, 2005 8:30 am

ImageThe ridge will push her to the west but when?
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#19 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 02, 2005 9:40 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST FRI SEP 02 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM
MARIA...NO THREAT TO LAND...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN HAS
STRENGTHENED AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM MARIA...THE 13TH NAMED
CYCLONE OF THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON. AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE
CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.0 WEST OR ABOUT 880 MILES...1415 KM...
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1185
MILES...1910 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

MARIA HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
LATER TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK..MARIA WILL BE MOVING OVER OPEN
WATERS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...21.3 N... 50.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA
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#20 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 02, 2005 9:44 am

TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 02 2005

THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT OF SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE
BUT A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER.
CONSEQUENTLY...T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES INCREASED TO 2.5 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE. IN ADDITION...LATEST QUICKSCAT SHOWS A CIRCULATION
BETTER DEFINED THAN YESTERDAY WITH SEVERAL 35-KNOT UNCONTAMINATED
WIND VECTORS...AND A COUPLE PEAKING AT 45 KNOTS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS THEN INCREASED TO 35 KNOTS. THEREFORE...THE DEPRESSION
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM MARIA...THE 13TH TROPICAL STORM
OF THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE UPPER-LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED TO ITS SOUTH...RESULTING IN
LIGHTER SHEAR NEAR MARIA. SHIPS MODEL MAKES MARIA A HURRICANE BUT
SINCE EVERY OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFDL...WEAKENS IT...ONLY
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST...GIVING A LOT
OF WEIGHT TO THE GFDL AND THE GLOBAL MODELS.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...BUT IT SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO MOVE
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. MARIA IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
IN BETWEEN A BUILDING HIGH TO THE EAST AND A BROAD TROUGH ALONG
65W. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS A TIGHTLY-
PACKED ENVELOPE OF NORTHWEST AND NORTHERLY TRACKS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 21.3N 50.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 22.2N 51.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 24.0N 53.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 26.0N 54.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 28.0N 55.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 30.0N 56.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 06/1200Z 33.0N 57.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 07/1200Z 36.0N 58.0W 50 KT
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